In fairness, their autumn forecast isn't holding much stock so far, which pointed towards a stormy one in this part of the world.

Still, I'd not say nope to a stormy winter. Hopefully there will be some real storms this time around and not the fluffy poodles of yokes that have become the norm since the start of the current century.

Its already busted the Autumn part so that doesn't inspire much confidence for the rest. Another LRF fail. 😜

Indeed it has

But a couple of deep lows and victory will be claimed ......................no doubt

UK winter forecast: Damaging windstorms to lash areas hit hard last year

"A stormy winter is in the offing for the United Kingdom this year with rain and wind set to batter the British Isles even before the season's official start.

AccuWeather forecasters are calling for 15-18 named storms between October 2016 and April 2017; however, the most active period will occur from December to February.

After a brief lull in windstorms during November, the threat will once again pick up in December, with some weeks bringing the potential for multiple named systems.

"The greatest wind threat is expected across Northern Ireland, Scotland, including Glasgow and Edinburgh, and Northern England," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Significant but less frequent damaging wind events may also impact the remainder of the U.K."

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-winter-forecast-damaging-windstorms-to-lash-hard-hit-areas-northern-england/60531022

Ties in with my present  thinking re winter 16/17- The Atlantic to gear up as we approach meteorological winter, with a strong jet stream either over the N of the UK or between Scotland and Iceland.  Dry in Iberia with a persistent High creating a very strong pressure gradient with a strongly positive NAO.

Copious rainfall and windstorms to affect the UK, worst conditions in west, particularly NW.

I will issue further updates as we approach the key time at the start of December.

My thinking is that we will experience an early taste of winter with the first widespread snowfall for some years in late November as the current synoptics repeat just long enough to bring us into the winter threshold. A settled December..with a mobile Janaury and early Feb before another spell of cold late winter. 

Previous November snowfalls. 1980, 1985, 1988, 1993, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010....we are due another one soon. 

My thinking is that we will experience an early taste of winter with the first widespread snowfall for some years in late November as the current synoptics repeat just long enough to bring us into the winter threshold. A settled December..with a mobile Janaury and early Feb before another spell of cold late winter. 

Previous November snowfalls. 1980, 1985, 1988, 1993, 1998, 2001, 2005, 2010....we are due another one soon. 

I agree Steve, insofar as  November may well be the month to watch, though I think  as we head into winter the pattern may shift to a more mobile one.

Tyler Roys got back to me and said my summary of his forecast for NW Europe / UK ("Sounds like they're going for quite a mild Atlantic based winter.") was correct.

Tyler Roys got back to me and said my summary of his forecast for NW Europe / UK ("Sounds like they're going for quite a mild Atlantic based winter.") was correct.

Brian, interesting to note their forecast is already bust in terms of the first half of autumn.  To add, latest news from a well known source on the other side...MET are backing a blocked first half of November with no sign of zonal and winds from a NW or possibly easterly direction. (Source -GloSea5 and EC update).

Here is a reasonable winter forecast

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/23/coldest-winter-in-8000-hours-on-the-way/

 

 

Brian, interesting to note their forecast is already bust in terms of the first half of autumn.  To add, latest news from a well known source on the other side...MET are backing a blocked first half of November with no sign of zonal and winds from a NW or possibly easterly direction. (Source -GloSea5 and EC update).

Here is a reasonable winter forecast

https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/23/coldest-winter-in-8000-hours-on-the-way/

That's last winter's forecast, I'm sure this winter will be completely different. 

Surprised at how quiet October has been and how persistent northern blocking has been in the weather models. Someone is heading for a November snow fall.

November not far off. Would be nice to see some early flakes....

The calmness of September and October is most welcome this year. It really has been a most pleasant certainly compared to other years. Just hope that Winter does not re-set the balance and be making up for lost time in terms of continual storm systems a la 2013-14 season.

Anyone remember which year we had than insanely hot october weekend was within the last 6 years. Remember heading to the beach and with the sun being so low in the sky it felt like it was 4pm on a June day constantly.

The calmness of September and October is most welcome this year. It really has been a most pleasant certainly compared to other years. Just hope that Winter does not re-set the balance and be making up for lost time in terms of continual storm systems a la 2013-14 season.

Anyone remember which year we had that insanely hot October weekend? It was within the last 6 years. Remember heading to the beach and with the sun being so low in the sky it felt like it was 4pm on a June day constantly.

 

1st and 2nd October 2011. Actually it was hot from the Friday to the Monday here.

Off topic mind.

Hit 30c  here that October, it was only welcome if the summer was awful

Jamstec is looking good, and supportive of what i can make out - scandi high dominated winter

Jamstec is looking good, and supportive of what i can make out - scandi high dominated winter

 

I always think  that model has a  bias towards cold .................unfortunately

Jamstec is looking good, and supportive of what i can make out - scandi high dominated winter