I agree there is no logic as to why more accurate data is not posted by Hadley each day. On the 1st of each month they manage to post official final data for each day of the previous month, including the data for the final day.

The table below shows the data for January including my daily calculations of the CET, the provisional Hadley data and the final data. As you can see the Hadley data is sometimes massively revised at the end of the month. The most inaccurate day in January was the 23rd when the Hadley data was revised down by a massive 1.7C from the provisional data. Hence why I always caution that the provisional Hadley data should basically be ignored as it is sometimes very inaccurate.

Thankyou GW.

I will refrain from posting on each daily change as you are clearly already collecting the data.

I did find tha above interesting,if its not too much effort to produce could you produce it on a regular montly basis? 

It is even weirder if you do an average each time of the post that I make. Remembering 3 of those  ..Met Office Hadley, N-W and Metcheck are collective figures . Mount Sorrel and my own are single. .. Not enough posters on here YET that put their own figures  to take into account.

Art, it would be interesting to see how much the CET actually differs from the daily mean of individual locations.  However, it would only work if people actually collected temperatures accurately and as clinically as the official CET stations do.  I don't have a Stevenson screen and I know my stations don't record accurately.  They serve well for my own records but I couldn't use my daily means for comparison to others.

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Met Office Hadley     1.9c.   Anomaly     -2.5c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                 1.65c.  Anomaly    -2.55c.

N-W                        1.75c.  Anomaly    -2.46c.

Mount   Sorrel          2.1c.    Anomaly    -2.1c.

My   Mean                1.1.     Anomaly    -4.7c.

 

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Here:

-0.69c

Mean min -4.47c

Mean max 3.1c

 

Met Office Hadley     1.9c.   Anomaly     -2.5c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                 1.65c.  Anomaly    -2.55c.

N-W                        1.75c.  Anomaly    -2.46c.

Mount   Sorrel          2.1c.    Anomaly    -2.1c.

My   Mean                1.1.     Anomaly    -4.7c.

For some reason all three of these are notably above the mean IMBY which stands at 1.24*C to 8th.

Must admit that recent model output has been a cause for concern at times for the likes of myself right down in the sub-3*C predictions... but it does all depend on the positioning of what looks to be very strong and influential high pressure.

High latitude blocking was expected to be an influential feature for at least part of this month, but as yet there's little sign of it in the expected locations, but since late January the modeled behaviour of key background drivers (GWO/AAM) has changed in favour of such which favours mid-latitude blocking instead.

Oh well. Just have to hope it doesn't do too much damage!

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Oh well. Just have to hope it doesn't do too much damage!

 

I think your CET estimate for Feb is looking way out, James. If I was picking it today, even with the current CET as it is, I'd go for over 4c, probably closer to 4.5c

 

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Met Office Hadley      2.0c.   Anomaly    -2.3c.   Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                  1.90c.  Anomaly    -2.30c.

N-W                        2.02c.   Anomaly   -2.19c.

Mount  Sorrel           2.3c.    Anomaly    -1.9c.

My  Mean                 1.1c.    Anomaly   -4.7c.   

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I think your CET estimate for Feb is looking way out, James. If I was picking it today, even with the current CET as it is, I'd go for over 4c, probably closer to 4.5c

    4c would suit me nicely, though I perhaps should have gone for 4.4c again, like I did last month.  However, I must not hope for too much and being at the top of the table is making me quite dizzy.

By the way, I had to explain to hubby why I was laughing when he handed me a pina colada as I lay on a sunbed on the beach!   I didn't spill it!   

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I think your CET estimate for Feb is looking way out, James. If I was picking it today, even with the current CET as it is, I'd go for over 4c, probably closer to 4.5c

So assuming above average temperatures all the way to month's end?

That much is still up in the air if you ask me. 

 

What I can see is that the CET will be close to my prediction at around the mid-point of the month so I'm not going to be living it easy 

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I think 10th January-9th February CET is about 3.2C

Could we just go under 3C in the rolling 31 day average? 10th January was very mild.

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Met Office Hadley         2.0c.    Anomaly   -2.03    Provisional to  9th   As not updated

Metcheck                     2.05c.   Anomaly    -2.15c.

N-W                             2.16c.   Anomaly    -2.05c.  

Mount  Sorrel               2.4c.     Anomaly    -1.8c.

My     Mean                 1.3c.     Anomaly     -4.5c.

   

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So assuming above average temperatures all the way to month's end?

That much is still up in the air if you ask me. 

 

To paraphrase the old adage, two days is a long time in model output watching !

On the 9th, the trend was for increasing unsettledness as the month progressed. Now the models are hinting at either a more settled spell returning, or even a chilly evolution.

It wouldn't surprise me if the final figure was about halfway between your 2.4c and my 3.9c

But, course, the NWP rollercoaster has many a twist & turn

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Met Office Hadley     2.2c.    Anomaly      -2.0c.   Provisional to  11th.   ....

Metcheck                    2.17c.  Anomaly        -2.03c.

N-W                           2.34c.  Anomaly        -1.87c.

Mount   Sorrel             2.5c.    Anomaly        -1.7c.

My     Mean                 1.5c.    Anomaly        -4.3c.                      

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Met Office Hadley      2.5c.     Anomaly      -1.7c.   Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                 2.29c.    Anomaly      -1.91c.

N-W                         2.45c     Anomaly      -1.76c.

Mount     Sorrel        2.6c.     Anomaly       -1.6c.

My    Mean               1.7c.     Anomaly       -4.0c.

      

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Looks like my colder than average February is a bust!

#herewegoagain

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1.6C here so far, which is -1.9C

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Met Office Hadley      2.5c.     Anomaly      -1.7c.   Provisional to 12th.

   

A question for the weather oracles on here please.  When the Met O show the anomaly, is it for the month up to that date, or is it for the whole month?  

For example:  above, the mean to 12th Feb is shown as 2.5c and the anomaly as -1.7c.  So does that mean the mean should be 4.2c up to 12th Feb, or is 4.2c the mean average for the month.

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Looks like my colder than average February is a bust!

#herewegoagain

Maybe... maybe not.

The output features a lot of days with CET returns of 5-6*C as chilly nights (often not far from zero) mitigate mild days (8 to 10*C maximums).

A rough estimate using such values for the entire two weeks (not likely to happen but just to give a feel for things) produces a final CET close to 4*C which is still below average.

Not good enough for me of course, in fact it's higher than the original model-based estimate of 3.3*C - which I then adjusted downward due to strong signals for a disrupted vortex and blocking emerging .

The blocking has emerged, but it's not looking quite as chilly as I envisioned when looking ahead two weeks ago. Such is the fickle nature of long range predictions - it is literally impossible to make an accurate prediction for conditions more than two weeks away (this is scientific fact, the result of complexity escalating to the point where there are just too many possibilities to account for using the resources we have).

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A question for the weather oracles on here please.  When the Met O show the anomaly, is it for the month up to that date, or is it for the whole month?  

For example:  above, the mean to 12th Feb is shown as 2.5c and the anomaly as -1.7c.  So does that mean the mean should be 4.2c up to 12th Feb, or is 4.2c the mean average for the month.

This came up in January as well, IIRC it uses the LTA to the specific date 

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This came up in January as well, IIRC it uses the LTA to the specific date 

Correct. The data used on the Hadley page is the 1961-1990 mean. The mean for 1-12 Feb is 4.2C whereas the mean for the whole of Feb is 3.8C.