theweatheroutlook

marting
31 January 2015 15:53:12
I'll have 4.3c please
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Duncan McAlister
31 January 2015 16:07:45
3.2 for me please.
Grandad
31 January 2015 16:21:55


Going low at 1.0C

Think anticyclonic with frosts, after very cold first week..

Grandad

springsunshine
31 January 2015 17:47:37

4.9c Please

Stormchaser
31 January 2015 20:00:05

A blend of the 12z runs keeps the cold theme going long enough that the CET could still be below 1*C nearly halfway through the month... remember February is only 28 days long.


 


Then it gets tricky. Playing it safe with average conditions brings the CET up to a little way above 3*C, but there are plenty of signs out there for increased blocking in the second half of February which could bring considerable temperature anomalies either side of average.


Given signs of a highly distorted polar vortex allowing for at least some persistent mid-latitude blocking in the vicinity of the UK, from which more options are colder than average than are warmer than average, I'm going to apply a negative adjustment to the 'safe bet' and go with


2.4*C


 


As with so many things in my life, I have managed to turn this competition into a scientific experiment 


 


Cheers as always GW 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Hungry Tiger
31 January 2015 20:18:49

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


A blend of the 12z runs keeps the cold theme going long enough that the CET could still be below 1*C nearly halfway through the month... remember February is only 28 days long.


 


Then it gets tricky. Playing it safe with average conditions brings the CET up to a little way above 3*C, but there are plenty of signs out there for increased blocking in the second half of February which could bring considerable temperature anomalies either side of average.


Given signs of a highly distorted polar vortex allowing for at least some persistent mid-latitude blocking in the vicinity of the UK, from which more options are colder than average than are warmer than average, I'm going to apply a negative adjustment to the 'safe bet' and go with


2.4*C


 


As with so many things in my life, I have managed to turn this competition into a scientific experiment 


 


Cheers as always GW 



Well done James - and well said. I'm not going to be cheeky and alter my CET forecast  guess. I think many of us now really do feel that we're in for a cold February - how cold exactly - well we are all going to find out very soon. :-)

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Easterly Beasterly
31 January 2015 21:08:38

2.8c please

Whether Idle
31 January 2015 21:15:30

2.9 please

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Frank H
31 January 2015 21:29:49

3.4c please

Wrightington, Wigan
markwells
31 January 2015 21:53:48
hi please can I go for 3.3C many thanks
Global Warming
31 January 2015 22:24:07

2.7C

nouska
31 January 2015 22:34:30
I don't think I've ever changed a figure before and I'll maybe regret doing so - sorry for inconvenience GW.

3.1 please.
The Professional
31 January 2015 22:35:07
3.01 please. Thanks!
Quantum
31 January 2015 23:43:16

1.5C

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
John S2
31 January 2015 23:53:04
my guess = +3.95c
Jonesy
01 February 2015 12:15:07

3.8*c please.


Can't believe I blooming forgot to get my entry in earlier 


 

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
scillydave
01 February 2015 12:33:32

4.1c for me please

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Norseman
01 February 2015 15:32:32

4.2C please.

Twister
01 February 2015 19:31:56
Sorry it's late- my prediction is 3.0C
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
redmoons
02 February 2015 11:15:14

sorry I am late been off ill, 3.8c

Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





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