Met Office Hadley    2.8c.     Anomaly      -1.4c.    Provisional to  1st.

Metcheck                1.25c.   Anomaly        -2.95c.

N-W                       2.42c.   Anomaly        -1.79c.

Mount    Sorrel        1.5c.    Anomaly         -2.7c.

My     Mean            2.1c.     Anomaly        -3.7c.   

Met Office Hadley    2.8c.     Anomaly      -1.4c.    Provisional to  1st.

Metcheck                1.25c.   Anomaly        -2.95c.

N-W                       2.42c.   Anomaly        -1.79c.

Mount    Sorrel        1.5c.    Anomaly         -2.7c.

My     Mean            2.1c.     Anomaly        -3.7c.   

Happens to be identical to my own figure for the 1st IMBY - though the Hadley one could be an overestimate of course.

Met Office Hadley    2.8c.     Anomaly      -1.4c.    Provisional to  1st.

Metcheck                1.25c.   Anomaly        -2.95c.

N-W                       2.42c.   Anomaly        -1.79c.

Mount    Sorrel        1.5c.    Anomaly         -2.7c.

My     Mean            2.1c.     Anomaly        -3.7c.   

Guys,

Just checked  following Stormchasers comment.  It is double my calculated values. Should be 1.4C. Anomaly -2.8C

More downward adjustments at the end of the month coming up by the looks of it.

Will be down on the 1's Today.....

Met Office Hadley        1.3c     Anomaly   - 2.9c.  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                     0.88c    Anomaly   -3.32c.

N-W                            1.11c.   Anomaly   -3.1c.

Mount Sorrel               1.1c.     Anomaly   -3.1c.

My Mean                     1.1c.     Anomaly   -4.7c.

Met Office Hadley        1.3c     Anomaly   - 2.9c.  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                     0.88c    Anomaly   -3.32c.

N-W                            1.11c.   Anomaly   -3.1c.

Mount Sorrel               1.1c.     Anomaly   -3.1c.

My Mean                     1.1c.     Anomaly   -4.7c.

 

Another negative CET recorded yesterday (-0.1C), without any adjustments.

After an approximately 1.4C uplift on yesterday's CET  the temps have been uplifted according to my calcs by a further 0.3C today (For the second  my calculated figure would be -0.4C).

Thus yesterday was the coldest on the CET for about 19 months if it had been correctly worked out and calculated. My adjusted CET to date shows a figure of +0.6C.

I think that the problem this month is the same as last month. On most of the recording stations used for  the record there was a sudden drop of temperatures in the 08:00 to 09:00 period . This does not appear to be being picked up on the day of recording.

PS I assume that the CET day is recorded as 09:00 to 08:59 the next day as I have seen recorded on here.

Met Office Hadley    1.3c      Anomaly     -3.-c.  Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                0.97c.   Anomaly     -3.23c.

N-W                       1.09c.   Anomaly     -3.12c.

Mount Sorrel           1.2c.     Anomaly     -3.0c.

My Mean                 1.03c    Anomaly     -4.5c.

Sorry GW, I know this is late but just got back from holiday but if I'm not too late I'd like to go for  4c.

Thanks!

Met Office Hadley      1.6c.  Anomaly    -2.7c.    Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                   1.19c. Anomaly   -3.01c.

N-W                            1.5c.   Anomaly   -2.71c.

Mount  Sorrel             1.4c.   Anomaly    -2.8c.

My   Mean                    0.8c.   Anomaly      -5.0c.

My Annual                    2.8c.   Anomaly     -2.9c.

Met Office Hadley      1.6c.  Anomaly    -2.7c.    Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                   1.19c. Anomaly   -3.01c.

N-W                            1.5c.   Anomaly   -2.71c.

Mount  Sorrel             1.4c.   Anomaly    -2.8c.

My   Mean                    0.8c.   Anomaly      -5.0c.

My Annual                    2.8c.   Anomaly     -2.9c.

 

The CET average for the 4th was 1.6C and for the 5th was 2.7C.

My calcs show 1.8C and 2.15C. Again a big difference for the 5th.

Again a very late drop in temps from 06:00 to 09:00  on the 6th has not  been picked up for the 5th.

My aggregate difference so far up to the 5th is -1.3C so it  looks as though we could be heading for quite a large adjustment this month. CET up to the 5th is now 0.25 higher than it should be...

Met Office Hadley     1.6c.    Anomaly    -2.08c.Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                 1.23c.  Anomaly    -2.97c.

N-W                          1.48c.  Anomaly    -2.73c.

Mount Sorrel            1.4c.   Anomaly     -2.8c.

My Mean                  0.7c.   Anomaly     -5.1c.     

Met Office Hadley     1.6c.    Anomaly    -2.08c.Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                 1.23c.  Anomaly    -2.97c.

N-W                          1.48c.  Anomaly    -2.73c.

Mount Sorrel            1.4c.   Anomaly     -2.8c.

My Mean                  0.7c.   Anomaly     -5.1c.     

Yep the CET as recorded in the estimated HADOBS dataset is shown as 1.6C (same as the current estimated value).

Again I am  afraid to say I have it as 1.3C

My method is to take the the min  and max from the online hourly datasets (for the 24hr period (09:00 to 08:00 the following day))  which are shown on the web. Is this correct?

So my cumulative difference so far this month is 1.6C below the ones shown by MO. A daily difference of 0.26C so far.

PS I have only started doing this calculation this month!. I do know that some fairly large adjustments at the end of the month do sometimes occur, but is this normal?

I also notice that the other inidicators  of CET shown above by Art are much lower that the MO ones. My adjustments will bring them all into a similar range . Just seems odd to me that they cannot be accurate on a daily (hourly?) basis when the up to date data is always currently available. Does it mean it is calculated manually at a certain time?

Any way what do I know, as I am new to all this!

 

Yep the CET as recorded in the estimated HADOBS dataset is shown as 1.6C (same as the current estimated value).

Again I am  afraid to say I have it as 1.3C

My method is to take the the min  and max from the online hourly datasets (for the 24hr period (09:00 to 08:00 the following day))  which are shown on the web. Is this correct?

So my cumulative difference so far this month is 1.6C below the ones shown by MO. A daily difference of 0.26C so far.

PS I have only started doing this calculation this month!. I do know that some fairly large adjustments at the end of the month do sometimes occur, but is this normal?

I also notice that the other inidicators  of CET shown above by Art are much lower that the MO ones. My adjustments will bring them all into a similar range . Just seems odd to me that they cannot be accurate on a daily (hourly?) basis when the up to date data is always currently available. Does it mean it is calculated manually at a certain time?

Any way what do I know, as I am new to all this!

It is correct to take the data for the 09z to 09z period. However, you need to remember that the maximum figure for that period is thrown back to the previous day whereas the minimum is not. So for example the maximum temperature in the 24 hours to 09z today is taken as the maximum for the 6th. Whereas the minimum for the 24 hours to 09z today is the minimum for the 7th.

To get the most accurate data you should use the actual maximum and minimum for the sites rather than just the hourly figures. The maximum and minimum for Stonyhurst are not available publicly so for that station you do have to use the hourly data.

It is normal to get some sort of downward adjustment at the end of the month. Sometimes is can be small and on other occasions it has been as high as 0.5C. When I investigated this some time back it appeared to be because the provisional data reported by Hadley is not based on the actual CET stations but a number of other stations some of which are not even in the CET area. No idea why this is.

Another below average day tomorrow and then we should start to see temperatures moving above average. The current trend suggests we may get close to the long run February mean by the end of the month although of course there is plenty of time for things to change.

At the moment it looks like all three winter months this year could see temperatures close to average overall.

Here is the list of predictions for February

 

It is correct to take the data for the 09z to 09z period. However, you need to remember that the maximum figure for that period is thrown back to the previous day whereas the minimum is not. So for example the maximum temperature in the 24 hours to 09z today is taken as the maximum for the 6th. Whereas the minimum for the 24 hours to 09z today is the minimum for the 7th.

To get the most accurate data you should use the actual maximum and minimum for the sites rather than just the hourly figures. The maximum and minimum for Stonyhurst are not available publicly so for that station you do have to use the hourly data.

It is normal to get some sort of downward adjustment at the end of the month. Sometimes is can be small and on other occasions it has been as high as 0.5C. When I investigated this some time back it appeared to be because the provisional data reported by Hadley is not based on the actual CET stations but a number of other stations some of which are not even in the CET area. No idea why this is.

GW.. Thanks for this information. If you have been through it all before then I'm sorry to have bothered you.

To me it just seems strange that they cannot pick up four figues and scan 23 numbers to get the max and min without getting it wrong. Then, to end up with 6 numbers and calculate an average from them could be automated in 10 mins and be run automaticaaly.

How weird.

It is even weirder if you do an average each time of the post that I make. Remembering 3 of those  ..Met Office Hadley, N-W and Metcheck are collective figures . Mount Sorrel and my own are single. .. Not enough posters on here YET that put their own figures  to take into account.

It is even weirder if you do an average each time of the post that I make. Remembering 3 of those  ..Met Office Hadley, N-W and Metcheck are collective figures . Mount Sorrel and my own are single. .. Not enough posters on here YET that put their own figures  to take into account.

Art

I guess I am just lazy and wait for your figure for the daily CET rather than looking for myself!

I hadn't appreciated that what is purported to be the 'daily data to date' figure quoted on the Met Office CET figures page was not the actual CET figure for that day. It is for a different set of stations.

I only noticed it at the very beginning of the month when there was a large difference in my figure (I live in the middle of the  CET region) so when I saw your daily figure for the CET, I checked  to find out what the actual figure was from the three CET stations quoted and it was different by about 1C from the figure shown on the CET page.

I now understand (following GW's post above) why the adjustments have to be made at the end of the month, though I still find it strange that  they do not show the correct CET values each day when it would take no effort to do so..

It is a cause for confusion and I am sorry, but  I am a stickler for correct data. 

I agree there is no logic as to why more accurate data is not posted by Hadley each day. On the 1st of each month they manage to post official final data for each day of the previous month, including the data for the final day.

The table below shows the data for January including my daily calculations of the CET, the provisional Hadley data and the final data. As you can see the Hadley data is sometimes massively revised at the end of the month. The most inaccurate day in January was the 23rd when the Hadley data was revised down by a massive 1.7C from the provisional data. Hence why I always caution that the provisional Hadley data should basically be ignored as it is sometimes very inaccurate.

Met Office Hadley    1.7c.   Anomaly    -2.8c.    Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                1.36c. Anomaly    -2.84c.

N-W                       1.61c. Anomaly    -2.6c.

Mount Sorrel           1.7c.   Anomaly    -2.5c.

My Mean                 0.9c.   Anomaly    -4.9c.