So assuming above average temperatures all the way to month's end?
That much is still up in the air if you ask me.
To paraphrase the old adage, two days is a long time in model output watching !
On the 9th, the trend was for increasing unsettledness as the month progressed. Now the models are hinting at either a more settled spell returning, or even a chilly evolution.
It wouldn't surprise me if the final figure was about halfway between your 2.4c and my 3.9c
But, course, the NWP rollercoaster has many a twist & turn
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan