Good evening. Here is a slightly shorter version of my evening report as I'm running rather late this evening.
The General Situation remains fairly unchanged with regard to the weather events expected over the coming week. All models suggest a fairly unsettled pattern though with the exception of Monday it will hardly be a washout with plenty of sunshine between the showers. Our weather will hinge on areas of slack Low pressure over the UK with Monday seeing a more vigorous area of Low pressure moving NNE over all areas through the early part of the week. Winds will be quite fresh early in the week but may fall rather lighter later in the week with average temperatures for most though in the South it could still feel quite warm at times.
GFS then shows the second week of the run maintaining the unsettled theme with successive Low pressure sliding ESE across the North of the UK with rain and showers for all and it may feel somewhat on the cool side at times. By the end of the run signs are shown of somewhat better weather reaching Southern Britain at least as a ridge from the Azores High drifts towards us.
The GFS Ensembles show a mixed and showery pattern over the coming two weeks with average temperatures at best. There is a trend towards that Azores High drifting towards the UK late in the output from several members which is slowly gaining support.
The Jet Stream continues the theme of an undulating flow across the British Isles in the coming two weeks still too far South to give anything other than transient ridges of High pressure between the showery periods.
UKMO tonight shows a showery midweek period though Thursday in the South might not be too bad. Slack pressure is shown meaning all areas are at risk of heavy showers and it looks like a new depression could move down from the NW in the days that follow the end of the run.
GEM tonight shows a temporary ridge close to the South late next week interrupting the showery weather beforehand with a new Low bringing some rain and wind slowly South again next weekend. The end day chart does show a mid Atlantic ridge slowly edging in from the West holding some promise for the days that follow.
NAVGEM holds High pressure further in the Atlantic away from the UK late next week with sunshine and showers continuing for many in average temperatures.
ECM tries hard to build High pressure towards the South late next week with some limited success for a time in a way that would show the cessation of showers in the South with some decent warm sunny spells while the North stay more unsettled. Later it shows the ridge unfortunately giving way on this run to bring the South closer to the North weather wise with rain passing through from the west on occasion in temperatures close to average.
In Summary tonight there is a lot of showery weather to come with some dry, bright and quite warm feeling weather in between. Towards the end of next week there could well be a breather from the showers in the South as pressure builds somewhat. It doesn't look like lasting for long with more changeable weather then shared between the GFS and ECM model into week 2 before GFS holds a candle for some warm and settled conditions possibly developing with some support at the end of the run. Unfortunately it is more than 12 days away.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset