But if you look at the scale of the rises of the lands surrounding the basin you can see that temps have been elevated by quite a bit more than a mere couple of degrees and that impacts the 'ice' beyond ( for up to 1,500km). These changes have happened very quickly ( snow cover plumets at the end of the nineties/early noughties) so not much 'data' is available to base new models on?

FY ice is the saltiest sea ice and the older you get the less salt the ice has. this is why so much thin FY ice is not good for the basin as it melts the best and thin amounts melt out completely over average summers.

Looks like its finally happening, the dreaded blue ice has appeared with the cyclone temporaily keeping residence over the barents. Looks like we are about to see flash melting on the siberian side followed by the American. 2013 should rejoin the pack within a week. 

Looks like its finally happening, the dreaded blue ice has appeared with the cyclone temporaily keeping residence over the barents. Looks like we are about to see flash melting on the siberian side followed by the American. 2013 should rejoin the pack within a week. 

Looks like its finally happening, the dreaded blue ice has appeared with the cyclone temporaily keeping residence over the barents. Looks like we are about to see flash melting on the siberian side followed by the American. 2013 should rejoin the pack within a week. 

I wouldn't argue with your analysis, but, if the talk of system change is correct ( jet south as an indicator and with cooling implications), how long do you think will it be for the new system to overcome the system inertia?

The cyclone is going to reform and this will indeed complicate matters, however this small interval will be enough to get some potent heat on the siberian and american side (particularly the former). By the time the somewhat cooler temps come back it will be too late I imagine, and with the costal ice gone things will really start to get real very quickly even further towards the centre of the pack. Hopefully some E siberian costal ice will survive at least until the cyclone reforms, even low conc ice will still keep SSTs from rising above 0C, once all the ice is gone the SSTs will soar. 

http://www.science.su.se/english/about-us/news/humid-winds-towards-the-arctic-affect-the-summer-ice-cover-1.136733

The above gives us a 'flavour' of what summer cyclones, with access to the ocean below, can help do across the ice?

Now the lands around the basin are warming nicely any air flow from the ground brings with it instant heat and humidity.

From now until Sept we need look at where the ground level inflow into the cyclone is generated? In effect a 'long lived' cyclone could introduce , at ground level, a lot of heat and humidity?

Looks like its finally happening, the dreaded blue ice has appeared with the cyclone temporaily keeping residence over the barents. Looks like we are about to see flash melting on the siberian side followed by the American. 2013 should rejoin the pack within a week. 

I wouldn't argue with your analysis, but, if the talk of system change is correct ( jet south as an indicator and with cooling implications), how long do you think will it be for the new system to overcome the system inertia?

The cyclone is going to reform and this will indeed complicate matters, however this small interval will be enough to get some potent heat on the siberian and american side (particularly the former). By the time the somewhat cooler temps come back it will be too late I imagine, and with the costal ice gone things will really start to get real very quickly even further towards the centre of the pack. Hopefully some E siberian costal ice will survive at least until the cyclone reforms, even low conc ice will still keep SSTs from rising above 0C, once all the ice is gone the SSTs will soar. 

Well it took a little over 100yrs of slow forcings ( on top of natural forcing to cool) to melt the Arctic so why not 75yrs (seeing as orbital forcing is in our favour?)?

Every 10 to 20yrs we see a 'perfect storm' scenario so your 'recovery' has to be able to withstand, and still grow, after such a summer melt season? This time we are 3 years short of the '10yr' min period for it's cycle ( and , remember, the two 'perfect storm years before 07' were only ten years apart???) so any edge toward regrowth would have to exceded winter 06'/ 07' 'volumes' to suffer only as badly as that year?

Can you describe a scenario that allows this to arise over the next 3 to 13 yrs?

Well it took a little over 100yrs of slow forcings ( on top of natural forcing to cool) to melt the Arctic so why not 75yrs (seeing as orbital forcing is in our favour?)?

Every 10 to 20yrs we see a 'perfect storm' scenario so your 'recovery' has to be able to withstand, and still grow, after such a summer melt season? This time we are 3 years short of the '10yr' min period for it's cycle ( and , remember, the two 'perfect storm years before 07' were only ten years apart???) so any edge toward regrowth would have to exceded winter 06'/ 07' 'volumes' to suffer only as badly as that year?

Can you describe a scenario that allows this to arise over the next 3 to 13 yrs?

 If "the sysyem has changed" and cooling is now going on, how long might it be before the system inertia is overcome and ice area begins to expand? 

By no stretch of the imagination can it be considered that 'cooling is now going on'. The Earth's system continues to accumulate vast quantities of heat. There might be occasional years where sea ice extent in September is greater than the previous year due to natural variation within the downward trend, but there is no prospect of the strong downward trend reversing whilst CO2 within the atmosphere continues upwards and ocean heat content continues to rise.

 If "the sysyem has changed" and cooling is now going on, how long might it be before the system inertia is overcome and ice area begins to expand? 

By no stretch of the imagination can it be considered that 'cooling is now going on'. The Earth's system continues to accumulate vast quantities of heat. There might be occasional years where sea ice extent in September is greater than the previous year due to natural variation within the downward trend, but there is no prospect of the strong downward trend reversing whilst CO2 within the atmosphere continues upwards and ocean heat content continues to rise.

Then Blizzard of 78 reported that Lockwood said at a recent meeting, that there is "an increased likelyhood of blocked cold winters regardless of whatever warming is taking place here or elsewhere."

So.....what If "the system has changed" and cooling is now going on, how long might it be before the system inertia is overcome and ice area begins to expand?

Thanks for that JS2!I do think that some folk believe if they say a lieoften enough it becomes true?

Folk also forget the changes to the #Arctic that are not as 'quick' a fix as low temps?

We all know that the Atlantic bottom waters already hold enough energy to keep the basin ice free ,year round, if they were mixed to the surface. GAC12 showed us just how deep the mixing from 'storms' can be in the absence of ice so the 'old halocline' layer that marked the Arcticout as a'special' ocean is being degraded as each low ice summer exposes more and more of the old halocline to mixing. Last years storm mixedout large areasof 'surface freshening' that the river runoffs and melt places on the surface (aiding re-freeze). As we movetoward 'ice free' ,and then' summer ice free' more and more mixing takes placeuntil eventually the reason for the Atlantic waters being the base ocean layer disappear.

How does a few cold years replace a layerup to 200m thick?

Thanks for that JS2!I *do think that some folk believe if they say a lieoften enough it becomes true?

Folk also forget the changes to the #Arctic that are not as 'quick' a fix as low temps?

**We all know ***that the Atlantic bottom waters already hold enough energy to keep the basin ice free ,year round, if they were mixed to the surface. GAC12 showed us just how deep the mixing from 'storms' can be in the absence of ice so the 'old halocline' layer that marked the Arcticout as a'special' ocean is being degraded as each low ice summer exposes more and more of the old halocline to mixing. Last years storm mixedout large areasof 'surface freshening' that the river runoffs and melt places on the surface (aiding re-freeze). As we movetoward 'ice free' ,and then' summer ice free' more and more mixing takes placeuntil eventually the reason for the Atlantic waters being the base ocean layer disappear.

*How does a few cold years replace a layerup to 200m thick?

*Who do you think is lying? What do you make of Lockwoods statement? Do you think he is lying?

** No we don't

***There is no energy in the ocean's bottom waters available that might do as you say. The energy takeup in the top layer of surface waters (700m) and excluding the surface waters next to the atmosphere is determined by temperature differences measured in thousandths of a deg.C - so how would what you say , happen?

****It doesn't but, it is recorded that Major cooling has occured in a space as little as 10 years.

This whole business of claims about oceans storing enormous heat seems a tad far-fetched and seems employed to explain the stall in warming.
It's suspiciously convenient to assert the ocean depths 'must be warming' (but can't be measured).
It seems like a blind faith in what modelling says should happen over-riding observation. 

I think you will find that 'abrupt warmings' far outnumber the 'cold' events which allseem to have 'external' forcings be they impact of volcanic? Warmings appear controlledby albedo drops (something the Arctic is already experiencing) so which do you think is statistically more likely?

As far as I know the energy coming into the planet still outweights that being lost fromthe planet so what does that mean ?

Weknow that throughout the last Ice Age thebottom waters continued to flow under the ice. This period enabled the deep halocline to form and 'lock' the waters there. With the opening up of the ocean 'normal oceanicprocesses will setup there (why would they not? They do so in every other ocean but the Arctic and now the 'special'reasons that allowed this state of affairs to exist are no longer here?)

We're looking at some 'record' high temps around the Basin overthe next ten days. Barrow , yesterday reported 'thunder'. This used tobe a rare phenomina but since 2000 ithas become evermore common. What does this tell us about 'Barrow'?

We also see the chance of the Yukon posting a 99f tomorrow? Not looking good for the permafrosts on the north slope again?

Due to low snow levels in the lands surrounding the basin all coastal strips (90miles?) look to be forecastto be ice free by mid July ( snow free areas impact 1,500km away) somark my words on 'drift and destroy' from mid july onward esp. ifwestill see LP dominance in the basin?

Thishas to be one of the most interesting seasons since we saw the 07' mega melt looming? This isthe other sideof the basin, one that used to promote ice retention and high final min figures. Are folk still expecting to see such come Sept?

With all concentration maps now picking up onthis years weird distribution wehave to wonder at the 80% FY ice we began the season with and also how much FY was welded to the base of the older ice? 2m of FYice willmelt out in an 'average' season butwhat if we tumble that ice around in stormy waters???

This whole business of claims about oceans storing enormous heat seems a tad far-fetched and seems employed to explain the stall in warming.
It's suspiciously convenient to assert the ocean depths 'must be warming' (but can't be measured).
It seems like a blind faith in what modelling says should happen over-riding observation. 

This is immensely frustrating Four.  You have only to open your eyes and read the large number of reports giving hard evidence of the warming of our seas.  Fish migrating poleward, for example.

http://grist.org/news/warming-oceans-are-killing-baby-puffins/

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/fish_migration_reveals_ocean_warming_20130523/

Of course the concerns are wider than merely the warming of the oceans - the effects of CO2 on other aspects of the marine ecosystems is as potentially significant

http://www.newswise.com/articles/study-of-oceans-past-raises-worries-about-their-future

Ok, so explain how puffin numbers locally are up 25% this year? This despite the scare from PIB's earlier in the season.

Have a look at the link in my signature and watch the puffins bringing sandeels to their young. 

Sea temps. here are approx. 2C below where they should be.

The cod fishery off Cornwall became viable again last year. Cod are a cold water fish. Likewise the North Sea cod fishery is becoming viable, this has more to do with overfishing than anything else.

Cod are still plentiful locally, I should know I've pulled up enough around the 20lb mark off local wrecks where the trawlers can't reach.

Ok, so explain how puffin numbers locally are up 25% this year? This despite the scare from PIB's earlier in the season.

Have a look at the link in my signature and watch the puffins bringing sandeels to their young. 

Sea temps. here are approx. 2C below where they should be.

The cod fishery off Cornwall became viable again last year. Cod are a cold water fish. Likewise the North Sea cod fishery is becoming viable, this has more to do with overfishing than anything else.

Cod are still plentiful locally, I should know I've pulled up enough around the 20lb mark off local wrecks where the trawlers can't reach.

As you say, the recovery in cod stocks is due to much reduced fishing.

I wouldn't begin to explain how local conditions vary from place to place but nor would I rule out research on the basis of anecdotal evidence from one place, when the research is wider.

This whole business of claims about oceans storing enormous heat seems a tad far-fetched and seems employed to explain the stall in warming.
It's suspiciously convenient to assert the ocean depths 'must be warming' (but can't be measured).
It seems like a blind faith in what modelling says should happen over-riding observation. 

This is immensely frustrating Four.  You have only to open your eyes and read the large number of reports giving hard evidence of the warming of our seas.  Fish migrating poleward, for example.

http://grist.org/news/warming-oceans-are-killing-baby-puffins/

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/fish_migration_reveals_ocean_warming_20130523/

Of course the concerns are wider than merely the warming of the oceans - the effects of CO2 on other aspects of the marine ecosystems is as potentially significant

http://www.newswise.com/articles/study-of-oceans-past-raises-worries-about-their-future

The temperature measurement of the deeper depths of the oceans is at the moment not possible at the accuracy required (thousandths of a deg.C). It's highly questionable too with the bottom layers of the top 700m.

Flash melting is now in full force on the siberian side. I said it would be a week before 2013 returned to the pack, but it looks like that was a gross underestimate. In only 2 days a huge quantity of ice in the East siberian sea has or is about to dissapear. If temps continue to stay in the high 20s or low 30s near the siberian coast this will be devastating, and we will see warrm open water in the basin before july, with the low conc ice left in the centre from the cyclone I seriously question whether we may see the 1st open north pole this year. 

This is why I'm so intrigued by the pack this year?

 With all the changes to the way ice used to react under certain conditions a year we finally have a chance to ask the 'naysayers' why such a 'cold year', a year with 'cloudy conditions' was able to drop so far below a year that, only 6 years ago, took a perfect storm to force the ice so low?

The low concentration rubble is under those 'humid' skies and the glimpses we get through the clouds do not make pretty viewing. As you say Siberia is now impacting the ice that side of the Basin but also Alaska is under heat warnings for the coming week (with the C.A. now in full disintegration prior to it's melt)

We can see Baffin and Hudson now plummeting so any input from the coastal fringes might bring us some very high loss days? Hasn't C.T. just dropped in a couple of mega melt days?

The next thing to figure is how this will play into the next, peak, phase of the melt season (Late June through early Aug)?

With the central basin fully fragmented and mobile, unlike any post 07' year I have seen, then the chances of seeing the pack 'feed' ice into the warmed coastal waters is very real esp. if we see more cyclones forming over the pole itself?

To me it appears heavily 'ironic' that the weather which used to protect the summer ice may well be the very thing that drops it to another set of record lows?????

And what will our resident naysayers have to say on that point???