Just looking at the C.T. data on the regional plots. were we not re-assured that the ice over in the east Siberian Sector was thicker, better ice than last years? If so why is it so much down on the same day last year???

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Just looking at the C.T. data on the regional plots. were we not re-assured that the ice over in the east Siberian Sector was thicker, better ice than last years? If so why is it so much down on the same day last year???

By who?
Was it thicker?
Thicker than what? 

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Was it not the NSIDC monthly update for Feb or March?

If you recall Four the overflights last spring (2012) put Most of East Siberia under only 1m of ice? I'm sure the plots were looking more like 2m thickness in March this year???

Still , no matter, it's all disappearing now!

For those who wonder why i would have prefered East Siberia to take a year out from melting I'd remeind you of those pesky CH4 vents and the speed at which they grow when the warmer waters impact them ( now over 10yrs of 'melt out' over this region and the 'warmth of the water column extends further down each year it recieves another wallop of sun from openc waters?).

Not heard a lot more from the chappie who was insistant that the anomalous snow cover over the N.Hemisphere was here for the summer? Maybe he should have checked the past few years of anom high snow levels and seen just how fast May and early June eats it away??? I did try and warn him!

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Just looking at the C.T. data on the regional plots. were we not re-assured that the ice over in the east Siberian Sector was thicker, better ice than last years? If so why is it so much down on the same day last year???

Yeh but thickness is by no means the only variable. The alaskan costal ice is over a metre thinner than last year and has wierdly done so much better than last year. I suspect it comes down to a combination of drift and meterology that shows a preferance to melting. The cyclone did a good job of helping to prevent any melting over most of the basin until very recently. I have given my oppion about the flash melting in the E siberian sea. I genually thin it is due to very warm winds moving over the arctic from air getting up to 30C. Cooler air has moved in to this area now, so things will once again be hold for a little (only a very little this time) while.  

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Just looking at the C.T. data on the regional plots. were we not re-assured that the ice over in the east Siberian Sector was thicker, better ice than last years? If so why is it so much down on the same day last year???

By who?
Was it thicker?
Thicker than what? 

People like you?

Ask the people like you that made the statement(s)

Odd question - the answer is in GW's post....

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i get the feeling that our 'reserved' Four is getting closer and closer to an outburst GTW. I'd be tempted to leave him be for a while? I don't think that sea ice melt will push him too hard but the rest of the summer around our hemisphere might leave us all sking awkward questions?

As for the Alaskan side of the basin Q'? the OBuoy buoys do not look so clever atm? Beaufort seems to have shed it's winter garb and has slush/melt over the ice now......not a good mix?

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i get the feeling that our 'reserved' Four is getting closer and closer to an outburst GTW. I'd be tempted to leave him be for a while? I don't think that sea ice melt will push him too hard but the rest of the summer around our hemisphere might leave us all sking awkward questions?

As for the Alaskan side of the basin Q'? the OBuoy buoys do not look so clever atm? Beaufort seems to have shed it's winter garb and has slush/melt over the ice now......not a good mix?

 

Yeh are you talking about 2013L? I may have commented on this earlier, I can't remember. Yeh the melt has really got going there, and all of it has happened very recently. The webcam image is a little odd though, it still shows some snow about when I last look including a drift of maybe a foot or so, but it definately looks wet and much much thinner than a week ago when I saw the same buoy. Melting is also starting in the NW passage at 2013A too. If its any consilation things are still pretty stable in the central, no evidence of melt here yet. 

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I just remember how fast the Canadian Archipelago went last year? it had had a 'cool' start but once fragmentation set it it took less than a month to all go?

With a lot of the basin similar in age and thickness any 'burst' of sun/warmth might lead to dramatic losses like we saw in the Archipelago last summer?

 

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i get the feeling that our 'reserved' Four is getting closer and closer to an outburst GTW. I'd be tempted to leave him be for a while?

Behave!

I don't think that sea ice melt will push him too hard but the rest of the summer around our hemisphere might leave us all sking awkward questions?

I don't think we need to look very far to be asking questions - I'm sure farmers all over Europe are asking some very serious questions right now!

As for the Alaskan side of the basin Q'? the OBuoy buoys do not look so clever atm? Beaufort seems to have shed it's winter garb and has slush/melt over the ice now......not a good mix?

i get the feeling that our 'reserved' Four is getting closer and closer to an outburst GTW. I'd be tempted to leave him be for a while?
Behave!
I don't think that sea ice melt will push him too hard but the rest of the summer around our hemisphere might leave us all sking awkward questions?
I don't think we need to look very far to be asking questions - I'm sure farmers all over Europe are asking some very serious questions right now!
As for the Alaskan side of the basin Q'? the OBuoy buoys do not look so clever atm? Beaufort seems to have shed it's winter garb and has slush/melt over the ice now......not a good mix?

Yes, precisely - serious questions, as opposed to frivolous ones.

We all seek a better understanding of what's going on in our climate system in general & in the Arctic in particular.

I think you might be attributing the wrong motives to Four's comments, don't you?

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I know what each comment represents - it is what makes me so exasperated by this whole subject. Each person here, approaches from their own angle, some use it as a weapon rather than a constructive dialogue.

As long as anomalous conditions produce violent weather where heat and cold clash, each camp can see justification for their views.

I prefer to look at it as a broken whole - still unsure what the percentages are regarding natural cycles and human forcings and what the impacts are likely to be in regional terms.

Agreed GTW! Sadly some of the directions our questions take us are no uplifting nor full of hope for our futures? It seems that if you do 'worry' then you are a doomsayer even if your fears are proven true year after year?

Take the basin ice. Look at the high concentration ice on Aug 1st and you will have a close approximation of how things will appear at ice min (only the high concentration left) but will this , at some point, fail to work as a guide?

Thickness is not indicated by 'concentration' and it is the ice thickness that enables ice survival. Soon enough that Aug 1st high concentration ice will not carry the thickness to survive the 'bottom melt' end of the season esp. if large areas of the ocean has been under sun since June?

We may even see the year where sea ice max 'extent' bumps 'average' yet is still all gone by Sept. Will we still see folk wishing to believe they are seeing 'good news' from the intial data? Will the folk who remind them that the basin is now seasonal be called 'Doomsayers'?

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Deary me the same old, same old in here I see. As far as I'm aware we are doing quite well up until now for ice retention. If and it's a big if, we finish up with far higher ice totals than previous years do you think we could discuss this subject like grown men or will we continue with the above posts by some.

Is this thread ever going to stay on topic. People, stop baiting the other 'camp' as its put. People feel inclined to respond, as I have done many times and I would rather point out my own hypocracy than continue this pointless dick waving. Please everyone  stop making referances to AGW, stop baiting the other side and try not to respond (yeh I know this post is ironic and hypocritical, and I am vain in thinking that it will make all the difference.) Finally before you quote this post and reply, note that I would be infinitely grateful if you instead chose to quote one of my constructive posts about the sea ice!

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http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2013172.terra.250m

When you look at the thickness plot it gives a solid 2m for all the ice in this image???? It looks like ice in a slush puppy matrix!!

Now we are starting to get cloud free snaps we might just get to see the state of this ice before it fizzles out to nothing?

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I know what each comment represents - it is what makes me so exasperated by this whole subject. Each person here, approaches from their own angle, some use it as a weapon rather than a constructive dialogue.

As long as anomalous conditions produce violent weather where heat and cold clash, each camp can see justification for their views.

I prefer to look at it as a broken whole - still unsure what the percentages are regarding natural cycles and human forcings and what the impacts are likely to be in regional terms.

👍 well said and a view I would share.

Just looking at the daily IJIS data and date for date there is about 800k more ice extent than the last three years. So if the final extent level ends up similar to or below these years it will highlight the vulnerability of the ice that does now currently survive. The next few months will be interesting as a final extent in 2013 similar to 2010 to 2012 will have resulted in a record breaking summer melt. Will it, or won't it?

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Seems to be an uptick in SIA today. I predicted this a few days ago where I said the Saterlites were confusing melt ponds with open water in the E siberian. Can anyone confirm, or offer an alternative explanation. Its pretty academic, I know, but I would still be interested to know. 

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I believe you are correct Q'. This time of year always seems to have 'issues' with sensors being folled by melt ponds. still those ponds will melt through the ice and drain and the rapid losses will continue.

 

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Absolutely. We should (climatically), through the polar day period see a rapid loss of at least 2 million sq km of sea ice over the next 4 or 5 weeks. The time period for the most anomalous melting has been the latter part of the season (August into September). In recent years it is this latter period which has been the most notable in the entire 12 month period.

So, basically at the moment "rapid losses" are exactly what you would expect to see, each and every year. The situation in August is a different matter and remains to be seen.

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This time last year we were coming to the end of the 'june freefall' and so we might now see ice losses begin to rein in the difference between the two years? if this involves heavy losses in the central region where concentration is low then it will not bode well for the rest of the year?

Also note that Fram is pretty bereft of ice? is this lack of transport or are we seeing rapid melt there? if the latter then we can expect to lose ice there over the coming weeks even if 'extent' remains stable?

With clearing skies and a H.P. looking to stick around a while we may be in for an interesting couple of weeks?

The coastal strips off Siberia and Alaska must begin to suffer under the incredible heat there?, Baffin/Hudson also look to have H.P. in charge so the ice there is also looking unsustainable?

All in all we may be behind previous years but I would ask folk to look at ice condition, compared to those years, and decide whether melt is merely posponed for a few weeks rather than not happening at all?

Personally I see a lot of ice that cannot survive 'an average summer' due to the state the past few weeks of 'slow melt' has left it in? I think folk will see some extreme melt returns throughout all of July and , as Dr M says, aug is the month to watch?

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