http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/18/record-shattering-heat-bakes-alaska/

Yesterdays record heat in Alaska.

From a cold spring to record heat??? Things are certainly 'stretched' on the extremes front? Do we think that mother N. is comfy with such extremes or will She do something to 'normalise' the situation?

Tipping point alert anyone?

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Tipping point alert anyone?

This season has started with a synoptic pattern [Arctic cyclone] which traditionally has resulted in September sea ice extent higher than the trend line. Should 2013 finish lower than 2012 that would be further evidence of a major change of state.

Having looked at recent predictions for this year's September extent, both on Neven's blog and elsewhere, the gross differences of opinion are interesting. Predictions range from those confidently predicting new records based on the fragmented state of the  pack to those that acknowledge the pack is weak but believe that given the slow start re extent we will simply run out of time to overtake 2012.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/18/record-shattering-heat-bakes-alaska/

Yesterdays record heat in Alaska.

From a cold spring to record heat??? Things are certainly 'stretched' on the extremes front? Do we think that mother N. is comfy with such extremes or will She do something to 'normalise' the situation?

Tipping point alert anyone?

 

Luckily things are expected to calm down a little bit soon on the continent. On nevans blog he has just posted an analysis of the cyclone with some research. It really does seem that cyclones are usually ice loving entities with the cloud and cold usually a more important factor than the divergence. With the cyclone now coming to an end and a dipole setting up; I really think things are about to get alot worse, and whatever damage the cyclone has done will be nothing compared to what happens when the sun gets going. There is still time for the forecast to change, and I really hope it does. High pressure over canada, Low pressure over siberia should set of alarm bells in anyones book.

 

Also I would like to add an adendum relating to my previous posts. It seems the flash melting over the E siberian sea was no where near as extensive as I thought. The saterites were apparantly picking up melt ponding, and despite the ice looking pretty blue and cracked the MODIS shows it more or less intact. I suspect this correction will be rectified with a very small decline or even growth in ice area today (obviously there is no growth, but the sats are picking up on the error now). If the E siberian can hold out a few days longer until the cooler air moves in, that will be all for the better. Low conc ice is thermodynamically far better than no ice at all because it keeps the SSTs from rising. Everyday where the basin is still full of ice, is another day of less extreme melting in mid to late August. 

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Hi JS2!

You can indeed see two distinct camps forming inthe 'ice min' discussions? I had considered a year with numbers above 2012 but quickly dismissed these as 'old thinking'? I decided i had seen enough of 'old patterns' being overturned within the Arctic that the 'natural' wish for a recovery year or two before the next big drop just did not 'feel' right?

Should we find that both the percentage of FY ice and the early fracture event have left us with a pack that will still find a low min over an 'average season' then it is confirmation enough for me that 'seasonal' ice only awaits the next 'perfect storm' year ( 2017 at it's earliest but before 2027) and that until that point we will see the ice bottom out at very low levels ( sub 2 million?) once we settle out from last summers losses?

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Tipping point alert anyone?

This season has started with a synoptic pattern [Arctic cyclone] which traditionally has resulted in September sea ice extent higher than the trend line. Should 2013 finish lower than 2012 that would be further evidence of a major change of state.

Having looked at recent predictions for this year's September extent, both on Neven's blog and elsewhere, the gross differences of opinion are interesting. Predictions range from those confidently predicting new records based on the fragmented state of the  pack to those that acknowledge the pack is weak but believe that given the slow start re extent we will simply run out of time to overtake 2012.

As per usual a well balanced and sensible post on current ice conditions and where we go from here.

Tipping point alert anyone?

This season has started with a synoptic pattern [Arctic cyclone] which traditionally has resulted in September sea ice extent higher than the trend line. Should 2013 finish lower than 2012 that would be further evidence of a major change of state.

Having looked at recent predictions for this year's September extent, both on Neven's blog and elsewhere, the gross differences of opinion are interesting. Predictions range from those confidently predicting new records based on the fragmented state of the  pack to those that acknowledge the pack is weak but believe that given the slow start re extent we will simply run out of time to overtake 2012.

As per usual a well balanced and sensible post on current ice conditions and where we go from here.

Yes, I think that reflects the current state of the ice. The last month has shown relatively slow melt - although still ahead of the 'historical norm'. I guess the ever-thinner ice will have to be a factor, as will synoptics over the next 2-3 months.

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This seems to be an issue with the 'deniers' GTW? They sing out about extent for as long as the ice is there never once commiting themselves to the thickness of the ice as it dwindles through the season? With so much ice of a similar thickness there will come a point where large amounts just 'blink out' over a 5 day period due to them all getting to the same critical thickness around the same time?

It's like their 'look at the extent!' cries at seasons start even though the majority of the excess is out of basin ice that will be gone by mid June?

Sadly some folk actually know no better than to listen to them and then find their hopes dashed as the natural progression of the melt season unfolds?

The only good thing to come of this is that we can have them 'dig their own Grave' all the way into Aug before their 'look ! a Squirrel!' time is upon them ( once again!). The squirrel will have to change this year with all the recent data on Antarctica that we have all seen?

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Tipping point alert anyone?

This season has started with a synoptic pattern [Arctic cyclone] which traditionally has resulted in September sea ice extent higher than the trend line. Should 2013 finish lower than 2012 that would be further evidence of a major change of state.

Having looked at recent predictions for this year's September extent, both on Neven's blog and elsewhere, the gross differences of opinion are interesting. Predictions range from those confidently predicting new records based on the fragmented state of the  pack to those that acknowledge the pack is weak but believe that given the slow start re extent we will simply run out of time to overtake 2012.

As per usual a well balanced and sensible post on current ice conditions and where we go from here.

Yes, I think that reflects the current state of the ice. The last month has shown relatively slow melt - although still ahead of the 'historical norm'. I guess the ever-thinner ice will have to be a factor, as will synoptics over the next 2-3 months.

Indeed. Although on the positive side (currently) it's nice to see a little more ice (in terms of extent) when compared with the same date on previous years. The question, will it mean more at the end of the season too or will it lead to an even steeper melt than seen in some of the recent years in the coming couple of months? After a slower melt period over the past month or so the last few days at least seem to be mirroring 2012 in terms of rate, albeit from a higher starting point.

Edit: GW, it's off topic unnecessary posts like the one above this that really put me off reading a thread about the current Arctic Sea Ice.

There is another thread somewhere for such name calling, keep the posts out of here please or we'll just see yet another thread descend into rubbish.

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I'm sorry D.M. but you have just mirrored my concerns about the viability of a large area of the pack even if it is currently 'plumping up' extent' figures?

As for the rest of the content we will soon be having the DMI80N " OOh look how cold it is over the pole" regardless of the look of the ice on the ground?

The Di-Pole is now setting up so we can kiss goodbye to much of the Greenland N.Shore ice to the Fram straight and the current Alaskan Heatwave does not bode well for the Beaufort end of the older ice come the sunshine the h.P. brings with it?

Time will tell if the content of the latter part of my post is 'Rubbish' or 'astute'.

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I'm sorry D.M. but you have just mirrored my concerns about the viability of a large area of the pack even if it is currently 'plumping up' extent' figures?

As for the rest of the content we will soon be having the DMI80N " OOh look how cold it is over the pole" regardless of the look of the ice on the ground?

The Di-Pole is now setting up so we can kiss goodbye to much of the Greenland N.Shore ice to the Fram straight and the current Alaskan Heatwave does not bode well for the Beaufort end of the older ice come the sunshine the h.P. brings with it?

Time will tell if the content of the latter part of my post is 'Rubbish' or 'astute'.

 

Tbh greywolf it is pointless to use such persuasive language towards the naysayers. Its like religion, you have a preconception and literally nothing will change your mind especially not words. Lets just let the evidence speak for itself; in another 5 years time it will be far clearer anyway.  

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Guys grow up. This thread is not about conjecture. I am sick of this stupid, dare I say pathetic name calling.

Either discuss the current ice conditions in here or don't post in this thread. Post in the other thread. Also do not call me a denier, I am a scientist by training and accept the carbon dioxide theory. However i do not not go for crystal ball prediciton science as that is conjecture. The Met Office are not that arrogant so I am not sure why amateur are!

As I say wise up and keep the doom saying predictions for where the belong, and that is not this thread. Use the other thread. I have asked nicely rather than reported these off topic posts in a desperate, but obviously in vain attempt to keep this thread on topic. Instead I get comments about deniers and naysayers, it really is depressing.

Do not judge my views in AGW, you do not know the, (obviously!). My apologies if you were not referring to my observations on the current ice ccnditions and the timing just made it look that way (which would be an amazing coincidence!)

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Guys grow up. This thread is not about conjecture. I am sick of this stupid, dare I say pathetic name calling.

Either discuss the current ice conditions in here or don't post in this thread. Post in the other thread. Also do not call me a denier, I am a scientist by training and accept the carbon dioxide theory. However i do not not go for crystal ball prediciton science as that is conjecture. The Met Office are not that arrogant so I am not sure why amateur are!

As I say wise up and keep the doom saying predictions for where the belong, and that is not this thread. Use the other thread. I have asked nicely rather than reported these off topic posts in a desperate, but obviously in vain attempt to keep this thread on topic. Instead I get comments about deniers and naysayers, it really is depressing.

Do not judge my views in AGW, you do not know the, (obviously!). My apologies if you were not referring to my observations on the current ice ccnditions and the timing just made it look that way (which would be an amazing coincidence!)

If this is directed at me. My post was 100% directed at grey wolf; it was actually an attempt to keep things on topic. I have consistantly made long posts in this thread, and have often asked questions which have been mostly ignored or used to reignite a debate. I am not blameless here, but I am not a 'crystal ball scienctist' either and would always be open to new evidence. This whole thing is self perpetuating because people would rather respond to drama than the genuine posts. Anyway like I say, my post was not directed at you which was why I was quoting greywolf.   

 

I am a little miffed that I hardly ever get responses to any of my genuine posts (being a relative novice about sea ice they often contain alot of questions ) but these sort of posts I make always seem to get a response. I'm sorry for my part in this monumental dick waving, but like I say unless everyone stops doing it, it is going to continue.

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Tipping point alert anyone?

This season has started with a synoptic pattern [Arctic cyclone] which traditionally has resulted in September sea ice extent higher than the trend line. Should 2013 finish lower than 2012 that would be further evidence of a major change of state.

Having looked at recent predictions for this year's September extent, both on Neven's blog and elsewhere, the gross differences of opinion are interesting. Predictions range from those confidently predicting new records based on the fragmented state of the  pack to those that acknowledge the pack is weak but believe that given the slow start re extent we will simply run out of time to overtake 2012.

As per usual a well balanced and sensible post on current ice conditions and where we go from here.

Yes, I think that reflects the current state of the ice. The last month has shown relatively slow melt - although still ahead of the 'historical norm'. I guess the ever-thinner ice will have to be a factor, as will synoptics over the next 2-3 months.

Indeed. Although on the positive side (currently) it's nice to see a little more ice (in terms of extent) when compared with the same date on previous years. The question, will it mean more at the end of the season too or will it lead to an even steeper melt than seen in some of the recent years in the coming couple of months? After a slower melt period over the past month or so the last few days at least seem to be mirroring 2012 in terms of rate, albeit from a higher starting point.

Edit: GW, it's off topic unnecessary posts like the one above this that really put me off reading a thread about the current Arctic Sea Ice.

There is another thread somewhere for such name calling, keep the posts out of here please or we'll just see yet another thread descend into rubbish.

Yes, the current extent is better than the last 2-3 years - but not markedly above the spread of the last 5, IIRC.

If the volume data is correct then I would expect to see rapid losses as we hit the peak melt period. I'm hoping we don't because it might possibly signal that collapse is still a decade or more away. If we should drop below 2012 it would not be a good sign, IMHO.

---

Tipping point alert anyone?

This season has started with a synoptic pattern [Arctic cyclone] which traditionally has resulted in September sea ice extent higher than the trend line. Should 2013 finish lower than 2012 that would be further evidence of a major change of state.

Having looked at recent predictions for this year's September extent, both on Neven's blog and elsewhere, the gross differences of opinion are interesting. Predictions range from those confidently predicting new records based on the fragmented state of the  pack to those that acknowledge the pack is weak but believe that given the slow start re extent we will simply run out of time to overtake 2012.

As per usual a well balanced and sensible post on current ice conditions and where we go from here.

Yes, I think that reflects the current state of the ice. The last month has shown relatively slow melt - although still ahead of the 'historical norm'. I guess the ever-thinner ice will have to be a factor, as will synoptics over the next 2-3 months.

Indeed. Although on the positive side (currently) it's nice to see a little more ice (in terms of extent) when compared with the same date on previous years. The question, will it mean more at the end of the season too or will it lead to an even steeper melt than seen in some of the recent years in the coming couple of months? After a slower melt period over the past month or so the last few days at least seem to be mirroring 2012 in terms of rate, albeit from a higher starting point.

Edit: GW, it's off topic unnecessary posts like the one above this that really put me off reading a thread about the current Arctic Sea Ice.

There is another thread somewhere for such name calling, keep the posts out of here please or we'll just see yet another thread descend into rubbish.

Yes, the current extent is better than the last 2-3 years - but not markedly above the spread of the last 5, IIRC.

If the volume data is correct then I would expect to see rapid losses as we hit the peak melt period. I'm hoping we don't because it might possibly signal that collapse is still a decade or more away. If we should drop below 2012 it would not be a good sign, IMHO.

I think it is a touch above most of the last 5 years for the same date but not IMO significantly so. The next few months will be very interesting. A maintenance of the overall 2012 picture or a small increase would be of little significance (compared with last year's maximum) but a decease in the final extent (or possibly volume) given the current value is higher than the last few years would be bad news I think.

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Looking at Grey wolfs post again I didn't look at who he was quoting and what the post was. I just assmed it was another 'sea ice recovery' followed by G.W saying it wasn't.

 

I royally screwed up here, and it isn't the first time. I'm sorry. 

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The sea-ice area does seem to be dropping more quickly than extent (relative to recent years)

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Consistent with a lot of fragmentation of the cover this year perhaps.

The sea-ice area does seem to be dropping more quickly than extent (relative to recent years)

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Consistent with a lot of fragmentation of the cover this year perhaps.

I think the main cause is the East siberian sea. Though like I said in an earlier post the saterlites seem to be having difficulty resolving the melt ponds from the open water so I would expect the SIA to be more uncertain than normal. AMSR had quite a large area of open water a day or so ago which has suddenly increased in concentration (I assume this is a correction). Also the MODIS isnt that clear either so that doesn't help, but when I last looked the ice was cracked, blue, but of a relativly high concentration otherwise. 

 

Also the mass ice balance buoys in the american sector have registered a huge loss of snow in recent days (in fact its basically gone in less than a week!) and ice surface losses are starting to register so we may see flash melt on the american side too. Snow cover is stable in the central part of the basin though or even increasing. 

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Looking at Grey wolfs post again I didn't look at who he was quoting and what the post was. I just assmed it was another 'sea ice recovery' followed by G.W saying it wasn't.

 

I royally screwed up here, and it isn't the first time. I'm sorry. 

Principled 

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Looks like its finally happening, the dreaded blue ice has appeared with the cyclone temporaily keeping residence over the barents. Looks like we are about to see flash melting on the siberian side followed by the American. 2013 should rejoin the pack within a week. 

I wouldn't argue with your analysis, but, if the talk of system change is correct ( jet south as an indicator and with cooling implications), how long do you think will it be for the new system to overcome the system inertia?

The cyclone is going to reform and this will indeed complicate matters, however this small interval will be enough to get some potent heat on the siberian and american side (particularly the former). By the time the somewhat cooler temps come back it will be too late I imagine, and with the costal ice gone things will really start to get real very quickly even further towards the centre of the pack. Hopefully some E siberian costal ice will survive at least until the cyclone reforms, even low conc ice will still keep SSTs from rising above 0C, once all the ice is gone the SSTs will soar. 

I won't argue with that either. but my question was something different. If "the sysyem has changed" and cooling is now going on, how long might it be before the system inertia is overcome and ice area begins to expand? Lags and attenuation stuff. Serious question.

Quantum: This might be conjecture, but, you didn't reply - its a matter of lag and inertia -  and a serious question.

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With some of the buoys in the 'thicker ice' impacted by PAC13 now showing rapid basal melt the obs of salinity changes in the upper halocline appear to be having a 'patchy' impact? Is this a result of the eckman pumping we heard so much about through this extended period of Low pressure?

As for 'Volume'? July's volume will most likely have arrived at , or sub, 2012 levels looking at areas now about to 'meltout'? As we nudge into this period of melt season the positioning of our 'thicker ice' becomes key ( we will surely lose the thinner ice that previous 'average years' took? so the Di-Pole set-up and N.Greenland perennial is now a concern? We saw this ice heavily fractured during 'Crackopalypse' event so we know it has the potential to be far more mobile to previous years and much of the 'shorefast ice' along that coast is reformed FY ice after last years melt out of a lot of that coastline so it will not give the 'old' safe anchor point that previous years have relied upon?

All in all one of the most incredible seasons I've so far witnessed? Come Sept. we will either be in 2012 territory ( I believe) or have a lot of ice on the verge of 'blinking out' and so have a real prospect of outdoing last year in a 'final spurt'? That aside the chances for losing a lot of our 'best ice' appear great with two areas at risk. The multiyear in Beaufort and the ice across the N.of Greenland.

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