The ECMWF is signalling the dreaded dipole may be starting to appear:
http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013061212/ECH101-240.GIF?12-0
GFS suggests similar
but NAFES ensembles do not agree
http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?12
They keep pressure low on the canadian side.
CFS (if its anything to go by) suggests a cold july, again LP dominated
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfsnh-3-7-2013.png?18
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfsnh-1-7-2013.png
Air temps will be still roughly constant in the central basin though by this time, but costal areas should be cooler than usual if this is a reasonable forecast.
The August CFS prediction is a bit harder for me to intepret, but on balance I would say it looks pretty conductive to prevent sea ice melt with lowish pressure in the centre and high pressure round the peripheries. It is also showing negative 850hpa anomolies but idk too much about that one.
It might be worth keeping track of the ice balance data from now on (even though not much interesting is happening relativly speaking). But I still cannot see any sign of a melt, things look pretty well snowcovered atm.
Edited by user
12 June 2013 21:27:40
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Reason: Not specified
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.