theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
22 January 2018 19:08:55

Plenty of interest going forward. Here's a static snapshot of the GEFS12z.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
22 January 2018 19:16:33


Plenty of interest going forward. Here's a static snapshot of the GEFS12z.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


maybe a short surprise on 27th as well

Chiltern Blizzard
22 January 2018 23:13:06

18z continues blocked theme in FI.... Doesn’t quite deliver from east in this
run but the northerly at the end is an absolute belter!...


Pointless to speculate I know, but given the huge pool of -20c to -30c air pointing straight at us, it would be great to see just how far south the super-cold arctic air got at t+400+....a northerly equivalent of the 1987 easterly perhaps!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
ballamar
22 January 2018 23:34:05


18z continues blocked theme in FI.... Doesn’t quite deliver from east in this
run but the northerly at the end is an absolute belter!...


Pointless to speculate I know, but given the huge pool of -20c to -30c air pointing straight at us, it would be great to see just how far south the super-cold arctic air got at t+400+....a northerly equivalent of the 1987 easterly perhaps!


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


 


in Southern Britain I reckon that would deliver max daytime temps of 4/5!!

Chiltern Blizzard
22 January 2018 23:44:26


 


 


in Southern Britain I reckon that would deliver max daytime temps of 4/5!!


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Nah, a northerly on the south coast would give a 9c irrespective of upper temps... it’s the law.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Karl Guille
22 January 2018 23:48:33
18z Control delivers a cheeky -12 850hPA especially for the Channel Islands!! Won't be there tomorrow sadly.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012218/gens-0-0-324.png 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
fairweather
23 January 2018 00:30:50

There you go Darren. The 18z ensembles have the control run and his two mates at -12.5C on February 4th. That should do it 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
23 January 2018 04:22:23


There you go Darren. The 18z ensembles have the control run and his two mates at -12.5C on February 4th. That should do it 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Agreed, that should do it. Now, to get the chance of that happening up above 15%!


Talking of chances, a marked downgrade in last night's EPS:


https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest


The 0z EPS had around a 40% chance of an easterly spell, it's now down to around 20%.


(Still, it's an interesting outlook. Last night's 12z GEFS is one I'll remember for a while!)

Leysdown, north Kent
Karl Guille
23 January 2018 05:42:59
Not sure that the 0z develops things a great deal further this morning. There are still some decent FI charts around, including this one which I thought I'd share with the birthday girl Caz!, but a long way from reality at this stage.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/gens-20-0-312.png 

Still, if the charts were consistently showing the perfect charts at T312 you'd know it wouldn't be there at T96 so it's more about trends at this stage and fingers crossed that the damn high pressure puts itself in a more favourable position in due course.

Here's the ensembles IMBY!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/graphe3_1000_219.94000244140625_250.4199981689453___.gif 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 January 2018 05:58:10

18z Control delivers a cheeky -12 850hPA especially for the Channel Islands!! Won't be there tomorrow sadly.
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

Morning">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012218/gens-0-0-324.png

  Good morning and Happy Birthday Karl!  No birthday snow for us. It’s raining here as per usual on this day most years!  


Regardless, the models are keeping us interested, even if cautiously!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Retron
23 January 2018 06:28:35
Less of an easterly signal in today's 0z GEFS - not surprising, really! (The mean charts, much as I dislike them, have lost the Scandi High too.)
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
23 January 2018 06:58:21

Is this another storm kitted out with stealth winds?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jeff
  • Jeff
  • Advanced Member
23 January 2018 07:31:30

Not sure that the 0z develops things a great deal further this morning. There are still some decent FI charts around, including this one which I thought I'd share with the birthday girl Caz!, but a long way from reality at this stage.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/gens-20-0-312.png

Still, if the charts were consistently showing the perfect charts at T312 you'd know it wouldn't be there at T96 so it's more about trends at this stage and fingers crossed that the damn high pressure puts itself in a more favourable position in due course.

Here's the ensembles IMBY!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/graphe3_1000_219.94000244140625_250.4199981689453___.gif


 


Dear all,


Please bear this in mind:



  • we are looking for trends

  • we are looking ten days out and..

  • we are desperate


So:


It wont happen, obviously, but we (particularly those in the SE) can all dream. Run Pert 17 from 240 hr.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_240_2.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_282_2.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_306_2.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_348_2.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_384_2.png


 


Seriously, though, the ECM seems to be bringing forward something interesting thats a bit further out but in a majority of the ensemble members. Based upon my view having watched winter synoptic model evolutions for as long as anyone, increasing confidence = patterns coming forward and losing flabbiness, and decreasing confidence = pattern changes getting pushed back and wobbling. This is ECM from last night 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png


And from this morning:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png


And looking through each of the pert GFS charts at 240hrs, for southern England, only three of 20 are anticyclonic westerlies. All the rest are anticyclonic N/NE/E/SE or have the high bang over the top.


Its worth scanning through them if you have a spare few minutes.


Just saying.


Jeff


 


 


 

On the East/West Sussex Border
70m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2018 07:40:51

Decent ECM this morning cold arrives in the north by day 7 and by day 10 we have a cold NE flow. Looks like it will last a while as well.


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
sizzle
23 January 2018 08:03:42


Decent ECM this morning cold arrives in the north by day 7 and by day 10 we have a cold NE flow. Looks like it will last a while as well.


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

GP picked up on that the other day with his GFS Ensembles Watch that if we get cold at start of FEB it will be  a north - NE flow.

sizzle
23 January 2018 08:15:00

Ian Fergusson‏



 



W COUNTRY Likely to see 12-14C across the region on Tues, but such mild blips aside, the potential for some colder conditions to return remains omnipresent in model output through the next 2-4 weeks.

Retron
23 January 2018 08:35:52
A slight increase again this morning with EPS in terms of easterly chances - around 20% now:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest 
Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
23 January 2018 09:25:37

It would be ludicrous for anybody to make a prediction for the weather after February 1st going by this morning's 00z GFS ensembles. There is a 17C spread in the 850's thereafter with not a single grouping to indicate a particular trend in this parameter. Other parameters and models are available of course

S.Essex, 42m ASL
David M Porter
23 January 2018 09:56:51

Given the highly variable nature of the model output at present, I would say that just about anything is possible as we head into February.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Russwirral
23 January 2018 10:03:22
Europe looks cold again in FI, though on this mornings run it all happens a little further away from UK and we remain under high pressure, but atlantic influenced HP.

Lots of time for more adjustments.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
23 January 2018 10:04:19


Ian Fergusson‏



 



W COUNTRY Likely to see 12-14C across the region on Tues, but such mild blips aside, the potential for some colder conditions to return remains omnipresent in model output through the next 2-4 weeks.


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


 


With a bit of sunshine, its possible it might feel springlike with the sun just a smidge stronger than it has been recently.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Brian Gaze
23 January 2018 10:06:27

ICON 6z could well be overbaking tonight's storm action but...


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
23 January 2018 10:40:35


ICON 6z could well be overbaking tonight's storm action but...



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Batten down the hatches Buxton!


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
23 January 2018 11:11:01

Frustrating long-range charts on the GFS with cold in almost all directions but not quite reaching us!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
23 January 2018 11:36:55
A fire at Met Office HQ within the area of the £97million supercomputer is disrupting services UKMO is currently unavailable and still has yesterday's 12z as the last run

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