There is more general consensus that GFS is now picking up the ECMWF Signals and GEM, NAVGEM and ICON will follow suit.
We need more runs for the next 6 days at least, as for the weather outlook from the Tuesday 30th is concerned to upto the 5th February.
FI follows after that!.
Cold weather with chance of rain sleet and hill snow is there in the making, cold NW flows.
The Retrogression of the Western Europe Bartlett Azores High to relocate in Mid Central N Atlantic is a good sign.
ECMWF and GFS need to keep outputting these scenarios as for us in NW Europe we need them to forgive us for the current mild weather they brought for us, and this mild and cloudy weather is staying with us right across to include Monday 29th Feb.
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Further updates will be posted by me if the situation can unload cold Canadian Greenland and Iceland-Arctic Cold plunges on a NW SE pushing Jetstream- I tend to enjoy that weather a lot!!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Â
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.