Chiltern Blizzard
23 January 2018 17:28:39
The fact there are zero comments on it shows how fatigued people are with the endless winter merry-go round!
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
nsrobins
23 January 2018 17:34:34

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

The fact there are zero comments on it shows how fatigued people are with the endless winter merry-go round!


I sort of miss the model mayhem 😉


The idea of an easterly hanging on by its fingertips but whilst such a vast array of options remains there’s always a chance.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
KevBrads1
23 January 2018 17:35:21

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

The fact there are zero comments on it shows how fatigued people are with the endless winter merry-go round!


 


I'll give a little historical analogy. GFS looks a bit like late January 2003 in FI. Who remembers the infamous M11 snow event?




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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
23 January 2018 17:37:53

There is more general consensus that GFS is now picking up the ECMWF Signals and GEM, NAVGEM and ICON will follow suit.


We need more runs for the next 6 days at least, as for the weather outlook from the Tuesday 30th is concerned to upto the 5th February.


FI follows after that!.


Cold weather with chance of rain sleet and hill snow is there in the making, cold NW flows.


The Retrogression of the Western Europe Bartlett Azores High to relocate in Mid Central N Atlantic is a good sign.


ECMWF and GFS need to keep outputting these scenarios as for us in NW Europe we need them to forgive us for the current mild weather they brought for us, and this mild and cloudy weather is staying with us right across to include Monday 29th Feb.


.


Further updates will be posted by me if the situation can unload cold Canadian Greenland and Iceland-Arctic Cold plunges on a NW SE pushing Jetstream- I tend to enjoy that weather a lot!!.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Ally Pally Snowman
23 January 2018 18:26:32

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


 


I'll give a little historical analogy. GFS looks a bit like late January 2003 in FI. Who remembers the infamous M11 snow event?





A legendary event in these parts.


 


Your Video Kev , classic stuff


https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=217s&v=7TU_OK4Vr94


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
23 January 2018 19:36:09
A lacklustre ECM compared to the 00Z. Another carrot gets hoisted out of reach!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
23 January 2018 20:23:04

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

The fact there are zero comments on it shows how fatigued people are with the endless winter merry-go round!


I think there's a bit of that - problem with the GFS 12z Op is when you look at the ens it's one of the few properly cold members and there's a lot of scatter. Pressure wise the ens are still fairly confident that London will be under the influence of high pressure but where it sits is very much up in the air (assuming the general pattern even verifies).


Bar the odd period of a few days the GFS ens have had a few easterly stragglers for about 4-5 weeks now - suggests there's a low chance of an Easterly but until we get something closer to the reliable and it has a lot more support it's hard to get too worked up about it, even if it does look nice


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
The Beast from the East
23 January 2018 20:28:17

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

A lacklustre ECM compared to the 00Z. Another carrot gets hoisted out of reach!


Most of us, even some of the diehards on the other side have accepted we are chasing rainbows this winter. I have totally lost interest now, I only briefly scan the ens means and that's it


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
23 January 2018 21:04:31

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Most of us, even some of the diehards on the other side have accepted we are chasing rainbows this winter. I have totally lost interest now, I only briefly scan the ens means and that's it


 



I wouldn't take any output for a week ahead or more seriously at all at the moment, be it cold or mild solutions.


When it comes to developments 6 or more days ahead, the models have often been all over the place. Look at the ECM v GFS stand-off just after New Year, for example.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
23 January 2018 21:13:16

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Most of us, even some of the diehards on the other side have accepted we are chasing rainbows this winter. I have totally lost interest now, I only briefly scan the ens means and that's it


 



 


Agreed. I think about the only thing we can take from the ensembles is that after this weekend, high pressure is likely to be largely in control for the next 10 days: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arcus
23 January 2018 21:21:09
I would advise Team Tena to don the dry pants. I always find it bizarre that anyone would comment on the fluctuations of the models after T+180 as any kind of certainty, but still they come....
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
nsrobins
23 January 2018 21:34:20

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

I would advise Team Tena to don the dry pants. I always find it bizarre that anyone would comment on the fluctuations of the models after T+180 as any kind of certainty, but still they come....


Indeed. Big birthday this year Ben? Ten years since Kinsley, Kansas 😎 How about putting all this chasing cold behind you and get stuck into some proper weather. 


Wanna take a ride?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
NickR
23 January 2018 21:38:58

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Most of us, even some of the diehards on the other side have accepted we are chasing rainbows this winter. I have totally lost interest now, I only briefly scan the ens means and that's it


 



This winter has already delivered some decent events to large parts of the country. There are still over 5 weeks of winter left, and over 2 months when decent wintry weather is very possible. 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
some faraway beach
23 January 2018 22:06:49

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


 


Agreed. I think about the only thing we can take from the ensembles is that after this weekend, high pressure is likely to be largely in control for the next 10 days: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png


 



Disappointing lack of frosts in that 2m temp graph. Presumably they're anticipating mostly gloomy, cloudy highs?


Re the Met Office omerta following the fire, I'm purely guessing, but it might have something to do with any insurance claim. You don't want people offering comments which could prejudice that.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Stolen Snowman
23 January 2018 22:20:54

Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


This winter has already delivered some decent events to large parts of the country. There are still over 5 weeks of winter left, and over 2 months when decent wintry weather is very possible. 



It can seem that unless we’re locked into a ‘63 style whiteout in the models with full agreement well into FI then there’s mass dispondency! 


The positives are that we have broken the pattern of the last few winters although in the south it may be little consolation. There’s not a sniff of a ‘zonality challenge’ this year and we’ve still got February to play for. It bodes better, even if it doesn’t arrive this winter...


Good usable weather tonight for cycling to the pub.


Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.
Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent
tallyho_83
23 January 2018 23:21:38

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


 


I'll give a little historical analogy. GFS looks a bit like late January 2003 in FI. Who remembers the infamous M11 snow event?





That was a thunder snow' event in Jan 2003 if I remember?


That 12z chart showing northerly or north westerly has now been replaced by west south westerly for 4th Feb:



 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Karl Guille
23 January 2018 23:27:26
Only got as far as perturbation 1 on the 18z!!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012318/gens-1-1-288.png 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
ballamar
24 January 2018 00:00:45

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

Only got as far as perturbation 1 on the 18z!!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012318/gens-1-1-288.png


 


would make for interesting weather!

tallyho_83
24 January 2018 02:07:34

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012318/gens-1-1-288.png


 


would make for interesting weather!



and that No one was the coldest one!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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