Plenty of interest going forward. Here's a static snapshot of the GEFS12z.

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Plenty of interest going forward. Here's a static snapshot of the GEFS12z.

 

maybe a short surprise on 27th as well

18z continues blocked theme in FI.... Doesn’t quite deliver from east in this
run but the northerly at the end is an absolute belter!...

Pointless to speculate I know, but given the huge pool of -20c to -30c air pointing straight at us, it would be great to see just how far south the super-cold arctic air got at t+400+....a northerly equivalent of the 1987 easterly perhaps!

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18z continues blocked theme in FI.... Doesn’t quite deliver from east in this
run but the northerly at the end is an absolute belter!...

Pointless to speculate I know, but given the huge pool of -20c to -30c air pointing straight at us, it would be great to see just how far south the super-cold arctic air got at t+400+....a northerly equivalent of the 1987 easterly perhaps!

 

in Southern Britain I reckon that would deliver max daytime temps of 4/5!!

 

 

in Southern Britain I reckon that would deliver max daytime temps of 4/5!!

Nah, a northerly on the south coast would give a 9c irrespective of upper temps... it’s the law.

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18z Control delivers a cheeky -12 850hPA especially for the Channel Islands!! Won't be there tomorrow sadly.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012218/gens-0-0-324.png 

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There you go Darren. The 18z ensembles have the control run and his two mates at -12.5C on February 4th. That should do it 

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There you go Darren. The 18z ensembles have the control run and his two mates at -12.5C on February 4th. That should do it 

Agreed, that should do it. Now, to get the chance of that happening up above 15%!

Talking of chances, a marked downgrade in last night's EPS:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

The 0z EPS had around a 40% chance of an easterly spell, it's now down to around 20%.

(Still, it's an interesting outlook. Last night's 12z GEFS is one I'll remember for a while!)

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Not sure that the 0z develops things a great deal further this morning. There are still some decent FI charts around, including this one which I thought I'd share with the birthday girl Caz!, but a long way from reality at this stage.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/gens-20-0-312.png 

Still, if the charts were consistently showing the perfect charts at T312 you'd know it wouldn't be there at T96 so it's more about trends at this stage and fingers crossed that the damn high pressure puts itself in a more favourable position in due course.

Here's the ensembles IMBY!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/graphe3_1000_219.94000244140625_250.4199981689453___.gif 

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18z Control delivers a cheeky -12 850hPA especially for the Channel Islands!! Won't be there tomorrow sadly.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012218/gens-0-0-324.png

  Good morning and Happy Birthday Karl!  No birthday snow for us. It’s raining here as per usual on this day most years!  

Regardless, the models are keeping us interested, even if cautiously!

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Less of an easterly signal in today's 0z GEFS - not surprising, really! (The mean charts, much as I dislike them, have lost the Scandi High too.)

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Is this another storm kitted out with stealth winds?

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Not sure that the 0z develops things a great deal further this morning. There are still some decent FI charts around, including this one which I thought I'd share with the birthday girl Caz!, but a long way from reality at this stage.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/gens-20-0-312.png

Still, if the charts were consistently showing the perfect charts at T312 you'd know it wouldn't be there at T96 so it's more about trends at this stage and fingers crossed that the damn high pressure puts itself in a more favourable position in due course.

Here's the ensembles IMBY!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018012300/graphe3_1000_219.94000244140625_250.4199981689453___.gif

 

Dear all,

Please bear this in mind:

• we are looking for trends


• we are looking ten days out and..


• we are desperate

So:

It wont happen, obviously, but we (particularly those in the SE) can all dream. Run Pert 17 from 240 hr.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_240_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_282_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_306_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_348_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_384_2.png

 

Seriously, though, the ECM seems to be bringing forward something interesting thats a bit further out but in a majority of the ensemble members. Based upon my view having watched winter synoptic model evolutions for as long as anyone, increasing confidence = patterns coming forward and losing flabbiness, and decreasing confidence = pattern changes getting pushed back and wobbling. This is ECM from last night 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

And from this morning:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

And looking through each of the pert GFS charts at 240hrs, for southern England, only three of 20 are anticyclonic westerlies. All the rest are anticyclonic N/NE/E/SE or have the high bang over the top.

Its worth scanning through them if you have a spare few minutes.

Just saying.

Jeff

 

 

 

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Decent ECM this morning cold arrives in the north by day 7 and by day 10 we have a cold NE flow. Looks like it will last a while as well.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

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Decent ECM this morning cold arrives in the north by day 7 and by day 10 we have a cold NE flow. Looks like it will last a while as well.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

GP picked up on that the other day with his GFS Ensembles Watch that if we get cold at start of FEB it will be  a north - NE flow.

Ian Fergusson‏

A slight increase again this morning with EPS in terms of easterly chances - around 20% now:

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest 

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It would be ludicrous for anybody to make a prediction for the weather after February 1st going by this morning's 00z GFS ensembles. There is a 17C spread in the 850's thereafter with not a single grouping to indicate a particular trend in this parameter. Other parameters and models are available of course

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Given the highly variable nature of the model output at present, I would say that just about anything is possible as we head into February.

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Europe looks cold again in FI, though on this mornings run it all happens a little further away from UK and we remain under high pressure, but atlantic influenced HP.

Lots of time for more adjustments.

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