But even in Aberdeen it's what -1c which isn't exactly what you call record breaking cold for the coldest month of the year. But re the SSW it's very frustrating when things were looking so good a few days ago with cross model agreement. Also even if A SSW does occur in February then it will be too late and as days get longer the sun get's stronger and I really don;t want a cold Spring!
Just so devastated that yet again this January has been another let down for many! Also not just La Nina but easterly QBO too!? So why the NAO is so positive I just don;t know - is it warm Atlantic ocean = more moisture etc!? = more intense storms !?
Interesting when I heard that a more Atlantic hurricane season can increase the chance of blocking and solar minimum (which is what we are in) has a greater chance of blocking - which of course what we haven't seen - well that chillier easterly last weekend. This is just dire.
What will it take to get a proper sustained cold spell with an easterly!? North America has seen the cold and snow and again we get unlucky!
At least winter 2016/17 gave us good cold frosty nights and nighttime lows of -5c end of November 2016, -2c 21st Jan and -3.5c sometime end of first week of I think 9th or 10th Feb 2017.
It's 18th Jan 2018 and we still haven't got to freezing yet here in Exeter!
Just wet, windy - rubbish bins, blown over & flying around and pouring out being blown away etc with heavy rain! The only cold are coughs and people sneezing! No wonder people are sick with this damp wind and rain! Just a few nights of cold frosty weather would be nice ...just a few - at least it would kill the germs!
Having said all of that though, Gavin P. has always said in those winter update videos which he did during last autumn that whereas these above mentioned drivers increase the chances of a cold winter, they never actually guarantee anything. I know that Gavin P. gets a lot of help from his friend, James Akrill when it comes to devising the analogues that are discussed in those videos and in the last set of winter update videos leading into this winter, the easterly QBO scenario was discussed in depth.
These analogues showed that whilst most of those easterly QBO scenarios did result in a cold winter, there was still the odd one which resulted in a mild winter, so this is probably just one example of those few occasions where an easterly QBO hasn't resulted in a cold winter and the analogues which were discussed in those videos, show that this is something which can happen. Furthermore, Gavin P. doesn't believe that we haven't yet actually entered into true solar minimum, and believes that we are still a year or so away from that. Just now, we are still in the process of moving away from the last solar maximum even though the solar activity is already low just now, and I have always believed (and Gavin P. has mentioned this in a few of his updates) that our best chances of cold winter will probably be when we get to just after solar minimum at the beginning of Solar Cycle 25, and that is probably going to be some time in the early 2020s.
Before we get to that, we are probably going to go back to a westerly QBO at some point in time, and there will probably also be a switch to El Nino before then as well, which means that there is probably going to be at least one more mild, wet and stormy winter to come before we get to that more ideal scenario just after the solar minimum. In summing up, I always believed going into this winter that whilst we would have a better chance of getting a cold winter this time, I never actually believed that this would actually happen on this occasion.
I think that this winter (at least in this part of the world) has actually borne out both parts of that last point really well because whilst it still hasn't been a cold winter, it also actually hasn't been a mild winter here either and if we do that really mild spell next week which the models are pointing towards, it will actually only be the first such mild spell that we will have had this month in this part of the world. For here, it might be hard to believe but this has actually been our coldest winter so far since the winter of 2012/13. The reason why that has happened though isn't because this winter has been all that cold, but because of the fact that we have had such a run of mild winters from the winter of 2013/14 onwards.
When I look back on this winter, it will therefore probably be those factors such as an easterly QBO, La Nina and low solar activity that we will be able to thank for ensuring that this hasn't just ended up being yet another mild winter here. Whilst this winter hasn't panned out in the way that I would have liked it to, I am therefore pleased with the outcome of that in terms of how I believed beforehand that it would go, and I just wish now that I could have presented that as a formal prediction for that on this forum before this winter started. I know that I had a chance to do so since there was a thread during last autumn which was dedicated to that, but I never really thought about doing that back then.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.