Maybe just a tad Joe, but SC's blanket condemnation of the weather forecasts was rather more than a tad unfair, IMHO.

I got attacked gently by Q last week for saying that the excitement was being overdone for anywhere south of a line from The Wash to The Severn Estuary and that the potential looked primarily for the north and west, especially with elevation.  That does seem to be what we've had.

Snow accumulation charts are notoriously unreliable, particularly when it's showery precipitation.  I'm always prepared to be disappointed or pleasantly surprised.

Nothing unfair in my assessment Gandalf, the forecast for around these parts was snow to all levels and a more organised band via a trough was forecasted to hit us around midnight, it pi@@ed down needless to say.

Nothing unfair in my assessment Gandalf, the forecast for around these parts was snow to all levels and a more organised band via a trough was forecasted to hit us around midnight, it pi@@ed down needless to say.

 

Actually SC, i dont think i saw one forecast for the north west that showed snow to all levels.  

BBC/Met have nailed this spell.  Nothing more than rain showers with occasional hail.

 

To say we live in the north west - this should be our bread and butter, but ive never really seen these scenarios as anything but annoying interim measure until a proper front arrives.  I was hoping tonights LP would sink further south as really - that was our (me on wirral) only real proper chance at snow.

 

But so much as the LP slid south from the north west in early December, this one maintained its path through the borders.  

 

Sometimes you just feel like a boulder in the stream with everything diving north or south of you :(

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Look back at the charts for 29th January 2015. That gave a real dumping of snow to these parts. 

I don’t buy into these claims that snow is very unlikely (or impossible) here on a cold, westerly flow with very cold uppers.

I guess you win some, and you lose some. Lots of complex factors at play. 

Best setup for here remains a light westerly wind, cold uppers, and blocking over Iceland. 

But based on many of the parameters, we could have had a temporary covering here last night (supported by the UKV too). Like you say, it didn’t happen. 

 

As you say the Westerly element wasn't the problem. The  main problem yesterday (given the borderline uppers) was the speed of the flow. Combined with the short Irish sea track, there simply wasn't time for large showers to re-develop over the sea. Their fast moving nature meant they were over in 5 minutes and more importantly there was no opportunity for evaporative cooling to kick in. This would have made all the difference for lowland NW England.

 

Very disappointing even up here. We ended up with 1-2 cm of hail and snow cover yesterday evening. Some very intense hail showers but none lasting more than about 5 minutes. Went to bed expecting a top up from that feature moving down. Unbelievably the temp shot up from 0c and sleet fell for a time turning everything slushy. Still got partial cover but it's melting quickly. 

 

 

 

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Is this the one where we compared inches that morning?

(if so, please remind me how deep the snow was, because I've forgotten)

 

😂 You were at work in the city centre, I was at work in the Heatons. It was an impressive fall in a very short space of time - 8-10cm? A lot of schools in Stockport closed I know that much. 

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Actually SC, i dont think i saw one forecast for the north west that showed snow to all levels.  

BBC/Met have nailed this spell.  Nothing more than rain showers with occasional hail.

 

To say we live in the north west - this should be our bread and butter, but ive never really seen these scenarios as anything but annoying interim measure until a proper front arrives.  I was hoping tonights LP would sink further south as really - that was our (me on wirral) only real proper chance at snow.

 

But so much as the LP slid south from the north west in early December, this one maintained its path through the borders.  

 

Sometimes you just feel like a boulder in the stream with everything diving north or south of you :(

For here it did Russ and on our local radio we had a weather warning for such, for those in Manchester Southwards it was always looking like a wintry mix yesterday. 

 

 

As you say the Westerly element wasn't the problem. The  main problem yesterday (given the borderline uppers) was the speed of the flow. Combined with the short Irish sea track, there simply wasn't time for large showers to re-develop over the sea. Their fast moving nature meant they were over in 5 minutes and more importantly there was no opportunity for evaporative cooling to kick in. This would have made all the difference for lowland NW England.

 

Very disappointing even up here. We ended up with 1-2 cm of hail and snow cover yesterday evening. Some very intense hail showers but none lasting more than about 5 minutes. Went to bed expecting a top up from that feature moving down. Unbelievably the temp shot up from 0c and sleet fell for a time turning everything slushy. Still got partial cover but it's melting quickly. 

 

 

 

Up at 200m you could have/should have got absolutely plastered. 

A strong wind = another factor working against us it seems. 

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Maybe just a tad Joe, but SC's blanket condemnation of the weather forecasts was rather more than a tad unfair, IMHO.

I got attacked gently by Q last week for saying that the excitement was being overdone for anywhere south of a line from The Wash to The Severn Estuary and that the potential looked primarily for the north and west, especially with elevation.  That does seem to be what we've had.

Snow accumulation charts are notoriously unreliable, particularly when it's showery precipitation.  I'm always prepared to be disappointed or pleasantly surprised.

Aye - I don’t think the forecasts were that bad at all really. :) 

My point about the Euro4 was actually that it was extremely reliable. Pinpointed all the UK cities that would get lying snow pretty much perfectly. My wishful thinking was that the model was underplaying the convective opportunities - but in actual fact it got the shower distribution spot on. This was to be a Scotland and NI event. 

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Very nice to see some areas getting a real pasting today.

My trip to Buxton is looking increasingly unlikely now sadly.

The showers did not align yesterday and despite a brief 4 or 5cm of wet snow from the earlier snow showers a lot has now gone. Temperatures are currently 2.5c in Buxton at 300 metres. Tonight's rain there will wash away all trace. I can't believe it. 

Its now all down to Friday now to deliver the goods. I'm not holding out too much hope.

I'm a little disappointed to be honest and completely deflated by this winter as a whole.

Here in Folkestone we have not even mustered a dusting. January has been no colder than 1.8c.

Woeful beyond words 

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Agreed with above.. Any snow tonight will be North Yorkshire northwards probably a little into the Derbyshire Peaks as it moves away. After that a few wintery showers Thursday and Friday before the mild fest begins on Sunday!!!

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I still maintain that ECM has been utter junk for the UK this winter - promising phantom easterlies which never arrive.

Whatever its NH verification stats are, it has performed far worse for this neck of the woods this winter, than has GFS.

I shall never trust ECM again - I will take more note of GFS, even when it is showing what I don't want to see.

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Very nice to see some areas getting a real pasting today.

My trip to Buxton is looking increasingly unlikely now sadly.

The showers did not align yesterday and despite a brief 4 or 5cm of wet snow from the earlier snow showers a lot has now gone. Temperatures are currently 2.5c in Buxton at 300 metres. Tonight's rain there will wash away all trace. I can't believe it. 

Its now all down to Friday now to deliver the goods. I'm not holding out too much hope.

I'm a little disappointed to be honest and completely deflated by this winter as a whole.

Here in Folkestone we have not even mustered a dusting. January has been no colder than 1.8c.

Woeful beyond words 

I agree, but it’s therepeutic we can all talk about it and it will never dampen my fascination and love of the weather. This forum has been wonderful this season.  :-) 

This hasn’t been an exciting event for Buxton. They had way more snow back in December.

It’s still a great little town and hopefully you can get your snow fix up here another time! 

 

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I agree, but it’s therepeutic we can all talk about it and it will never dampen my fascination and love of the weather. This forum has been wonderful this season.  :-) 

This hasn’t been an exciting event for Buxton. They had way more snow back in December.

It’s still a great little town and hopefully you can get your snow fix up here another time! 

 

Indeed Joe. Its been a great winter for this forum. Marginality provokes interest. ! 

Disappointments like this simply fuel my passion for the weather even more too. Buxton is top of the winter bucket list now. An £80 family room and a 4.5 hour drive is a worthy investment if it means the annual snow fix is satisfied. 

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 completely deflated by this winter as a whole.

Oh, it's to be expected surely - certainly in our neck of the woods it's an easterly or nothing and for the last couple of decades it's been the latter! I used to get all worked up over the charts, only to get deflated when snow didn't come off. For the past few years I've worked on the principle that if it shows snow it probably won't happen... and if it does, it's a bonus rather than something to be expected.

That's meant less poring over each run, less worrying about whether a puddle of -10s will manage to stay intact... and generally a lot less worrying as a result! Couple that with a not-the-same holiday every other year to see snow and it makes things more bearable.

One day we'll get another deep cold easterly and the return of powder snow etc, but whether it'll happen in our lifetimes is up for debate. It'd be fun to see if only for the chaos that'd ensue as adults who've never seen proper snow take to the roads!

(And this current cold spell - well, up north it's a cold spell - shows the Euro4 is really good with snow. It's the model I trust most for snow, just a shame we so rarely get to test it!)

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I still maintain that ECM has been utter junk for the UK this winter - promising phantom easterlies which never arrive.

Whatever its NH verification stats are, it has performed far worse for this neck of the woods this winter, than has GFS.

I shall never trust ECM again - I will take more note of GFS, even when it is showing what I don't want to see.

ECM must have heard you. The 12z is refusing to come out until you apologise. 

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As you say the Westerly element wasn't the problem. The  main problem yesterday (given the borderline uppers) was the speed of the flow. Combined with the short Irish sea track, there simply wasn't time for large showers to re-develop over the sea. Their fast moving nature meant they were over in 5 minutes and more importantly there was no opportunity for evaporative cooling to kick in. This would have made all the difference for lowland NW England.

 

Very disappointing even up here. We ended up with 1-2 cm of hail and snow cover yesterday evening. Some very intense hail showers but none lasting more than about 5 minutes. Went to bed expecting a top up from that feature moving down. Unbelievably the temp shot up from 0c and sleet fell for a time turning everything slushy. Still got partial cover but it's melting quickly.

 

Yesterday evening I was watching the 'beefy' showers happily crossing Ireland undiminished in strength only to hit the Irish Sea and immediately begin to weaken significantly. Surely the relative warmth of the sea should at least have sustained them on their progress towards us?

I managed a relatively brief covering yesterday evening, the radar seemed to show more showers overnight but there was only a patchy cover when I woke this morning.

And another thing, why did areas east of the Pennines do better than over here in a WNW setup?? I can understand that any showers that do make it over may be more likely to be of snow as they are further from the sea but last night was like the Pennines didn't exist. If this was a rain situation NW England would get battered and Yorkshire left relatively unscathed.

 

 

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  For the past few years I've worked on the principle that if it shows snow it probably won't happen... and if it does, it's a bonus rather than something to be expected.

I was speaking to a good mate of mine a couple of hours ago who once posted here (Whyte Lightning).

He let it all go a couple of years ago when a doctors diagnosis coupled with his business made cold winter weather all very unappealing.

I'm not at that stage yet, and probably never will be. The lure of a snow filled anvil invading the sky from the NE on a star filled winters night is simply too strong and burns strong in my nostalgic memory. 

I will say though that my 'window' of enthusiasm for the chase has now reduced. By 7th February I'm throwing in the towel and consigning another winter to the bin. The sense of freedom that  overcomes me by Mid February is empowering. By then I'm enjoying increasing daylight and becoming in tune with nature waking up again after another prolonged autumn. 

 

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I still maintain that ECM has been utter junk for the UK this winter - promising phantom easterlies which never arrive.

Whatever its NH verification stats are, it has performed far worse for this neck of the woods this winter, than has GFS.

I shall never trust ECM again - I will take more note of GFS, even when it is showing what I don't want to see.

I have to agree regardless of the stats for the NH, for the Uk it’s been pants.

Got down to -1C last night – wonderfully impressive for a mid-January cold spell No snow as far inland as Ballater, no sign of frost and above freezing by dawn. Like a typical late Spring frost and I’ve seen more impressive cold spells in May then this feeble, rank, insipid rubbish. Doesn't even look like dropping below freezing tonight. Resolutely stuck on 1.7C due to the vile wind

Looking at this capture from the snow gate webcam on the Cairn O’Mount road from Banchory to Fettercairn, which is supposed to be one of Britain’s snowiest roads, frequently closed during winter due to snow, made me want to throw my PC out the window.

 

Looks like endless zonal dirge for the foreseeable as well. Knew this crap would be followed by milder zonality. Would have been better to have mild from the off as then we would be a week closer to it ending and perhaps getting something decent. As it stands January is looking like a complete write-off – the worst since 2014 and wouldn’t surprise me if February is also the worst since 2014.

This winter has turned into nothing short of an endurance test over the past month. No different to the last four. I said at the time that the moderate snowfalls on 30th November and 8th December would be as good as it gets and winter has effectively been over since mid-December with no visible frost for weeks and no snow other than a typical spring like dusting on 28th December

 

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Looking at this capture from the snow gate webcam on the Cairn O’Mount road from Banchory to Fettercairn, which is supposed to be one of Britain’s snowiest roads, frequently closed during winter due to snow, made me want to throw my PC out the window.

Had some snow and strong winds and even lightning from this spell but on the whole, all very below par for such a cold westerly for these parts. 

 

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The Ukrainian Block moves northwards to join Scandinavia and the eastern Russian/Siberian Block moves westwards to join Scandi HP - this looks very promising but because it's FI is it really worth taking any notice of this!?

Wait until the 00z charts come along and see if there is a trend?

 

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