Absolute crap here last night, despite my ramping.

As I mentioned in the model thread, I will take more note of the Euro4 model in future. 

You would think that -8C/-9C uppers blowing across a warm Irish Sea on a westerly would bring snow here (it certainly has in the past), but all we had was brief hail showers. Really disappointing.

Maybe the wind was too strong? Why that would make a difference I do not know, but in the past when we’ve had snow on a westerly, the main action has taken place when the wind has fallen light.

I used to get more snow when I lived in Stockport (80m ASL). Down here only 40m lower down, I’ve really noticed the difference the past few winters.

Really, really poor. Can’t remember the last time I saw a decent snowfall with snow lying on the trees etc. Must have been a brief fall in Jan 2015. I must admit I’m getting tetchy! 

It is snowy above 150m, but it is turning slushy here as well.
Temperature rose above freezing at about 4.30am , currently 2c here with sleet showers, as it is at the airport.

I thought the automated forecasts were OKish for here last night. For days they showed 0C to 1C at Leeds/Bradford Airport with heavy snow showers rising to 1-2C in the morning with more sleety showers, as has happened. My only criticism would be that they showed continuous heavy snow rather than showers.

I'd say that as they literally changed significantly during every hourly update they couldn't really get it very right or wrong. 

It's raining here at work about 170m asl and 4C. 

For tonight? The forecast says:

"Thickening cloud will bring a spell of snow overnight, locally heavy, giving accumulations for many. Although, rain or sleet may be more likely along the immediate coast. Very windy later. Minimum temperature 0 °C."

The graphics show heavy rain/sleet. They also show the warm sector very nicely (2C at 1am, 5C an hour later before dropping back almost immediately).

Yes Joe - yet another useless January for lowland England - at least Scotland is getting something out of this however.

The GFS run this morning is horrible, but at least it is realistic - offering no hope for coldies whatsoever - face it guys, we just have to forget about January being a winter month in England - it isn't these days - it is just an extended autumn month - utter rubbish.

Talking about rubbish, the ECM has been as useful as a chocolate teapot since its "upgrade" - as far as I can tell, GFS has been more realistic about our prospects than stupid old ECM which should be binned for leading us up the garden path so many times this winter - I shall never give ECM any credibility in future and I don't care about the verification stats. - for English winter prospects, ECM has been the very worst model this rubbish month of a chain of successive goddam awful rubbish useless non-delivering pathtic supposed to be winter Januaries which should hold their annual heads in utter abject shame!

Enjoyed that!

 

I'd say that as they literally changed significantly during every hourly update they couldn't really get it very right or wrong. 

It's raining here at work about 170m asl and 4C. 

For tonight? The forecast says:

"Thickening cloud will bring a spell of snow overnight, locally heavy, giving accumulations for many. Although, rain or sleet may be more likely along the immediate coast. Very windy later. Minimum temperature 0 °C."

The graphics show heavy rain/sleet. They also show the warm sector very nicely (2C at 1am, 5C an hour later before dropping back almost immediately).

Yes the text forecast does not match with the graphics or GFS re the warm sector.  Automated forecast for further north like Durham shows continuous snow.

Not sure anyone has a clue what will happen tonight, but I get the feeling we will get some snow followed by rain.

After a quick skeg ((c) Sevendust) through the outputs, it looks like my wait to see an actual snow cover here at my back yard may well extend into its 6th year.

Still, it is being a fine and sunny morning as I type this, just a shame it's going to turn crap tonight with rain and yet more wind.

What a complete farce of a cold snap with all the weather models and agencies being so far off the ball that putting any faith into them whatsoever would be akin to investing your savings into Carillion and expecting a good return.

The forecasts have been spot on. Snow for Scotland and N. Ireland and the hills of the north of England.

What were you expecting from a cold westerly flow? What does history tell you?

 

The forecasts have been spot on. Snow for Scotland and N. Ireland and the hills of the north of England.

What were you expecting from a cold westerly flow? What does history tell you?

Not here they weren't. But then they performed somersaults every 60 minutes. Why they can't just update then every three or six hours I don't know.

But I have to accept that a place like Leeds needs something a bit extra to get a decent dumping these days. Even elevation doesn't seem to crack it like it did when I first moved here 20 years ago.

 

The forecasts have been spot on. Snow for Scotland and N. Ireland and the hills of the north of England.

What were you expecting from a cold westerly flow? What does history tell you?

 

The forecasts have been spot on. Snow for Scotland and N. Ireland and the hills of the north of England.

What were you expecting from a cold westerly flow? What does history tell you?

I agree with that, and the lesson which I have learned from this is that in this part of the world, we don't always necessarily need to have that holy grail of a proper easterly from Siberia (which never seems to happen these days, and which has still never happened during this winter either) being fed in from a blocking high to our north, in order for us to get a lot of snow here.

Having said that though, this type of cold weather coming out of a cold zonality situation never tends to last for long because it is then, usually not all that long before the next weather system is once again bringing in less cold (possibly mild) air once again. The only way in which this type of scenario where we get a lot of snow can be sustained for any length of time, can therefore only really come from that holy grail of a proper easterly, and I'm hopeful that I will still be around on this planet for long enough to see that at some point in time before my own time here is up.

 

The forecasts have been spot on. Snow for Scotland and N. Ireland and the hills of the north of England.

What were you expecting from a cold westerly flow? What does history tell you?

I think that’s a tad unfair Peter.

I have seen snow on a cold westerly flow here multiple times in the past. 

My lesson learned is to trust the Euro4 snow accumulation model forecast .

 

I think that’s a tad unfair Peter.

I have seen snow on a cold westerly flow here multiple times in the past. 

My lesson learned is to trust the Euro4 snow accumulation model forecast .

Was in Manchester yesterday Joe and only saw hail, a couple of snow showers here but any snow largely melted quickly, fairly standard for a set up with so much of a westerly element.

Was in Manchester yesterday Joe and only saw hail, a couple of snow showers here but any snow largely melted quickly, fairly standard for a set up with so much of a westerly element.

Look back at the charts for 29th January 2015. That gave a real dumping of snow to these parts. 

I don’t buy into these claims that snow is very unlikely (or impossible) here on a cold, westerly flow with very cold uppers.

I guess you win some, and you lose some. Lots of complex factors at play. 

Best setup for here remains a light westerly wind, cold uppers, and blocking over Iceland. 

But based on many of the parameters, we could have had a temporary covering here last night (supported by the UKV too). Like you say, it didn’t happen. 

 

Look back at the charts for 29th January 2015. That gave a real dumping of snow to these parts. 

Is this the one where we compared inches that morning?

(if so, please remind me how deep the snow was, because I've forgotten)

 

 

Is this the one where we compared inches that morning?

(if so, please remind me how deep the snow was, because I've forgotten)

 

Is Mrs S aware of this encounter?

 

Is Mrs S aware of this encounter?

She's cool

 

I think that’s a tad unfair Peter.

I have seen snow on a cold westerly flow here multiple times in the past. 

My lesson learned is to trust the Euro4 snow accumulation model forecast .

Maybe just a tad Joe, but SC's blanket condemnation of the weather forecasts was rather more than a tad unfair, IMHO.

I got attacked gently by Q last week for saying that the excitement was being overdone for anywhere south of a line from The Wash to The Severn Estuary and that the potential looked primarily for the north and west, especially with elevation.  That does seem to be what we've had.

Snow accumulation charts are notoriously unreliable, particularly when it's showery precipitation.  I'm always prepared to be disappointed or pleasantly surprised.