Another winter beckons and I'm sick of it already !
The 5 month autumn has now kicked in down in the south..the only difference for the next 2 months is that it gets darker with it.
For the north its exciting...for the south watching reload after reload with fantastic looking northerlies and 850's at the south coast barely falling to -5c is tiresome already.
Thursday this week was looking ok for a little snow down here in the SE as the wind tilted back to a more NNE'ly at the same time as a colder pool of uppers moved down. Now its NW'ly all the way and predominantly dry. By Friday the wind does tilt into the NE but the 850Hpa's are modified and uppers of -5c or -6c will now bring rain.
I feel myself getting sucked into the game again. In the past I would be fatigued by early February, these days I'm done by December.
We don't get cold enough northerlies and we no longer get midwinter easterlies.
Silly, stupid season ! .
I'm actually seeing a few signs now that it might not be so exciting in the northern half of the UK (I'm sure that you will be including Scotland as part of the "north" unless you're only talking about the north of England) after all, as a lot of the models now seem to have backed off a bit from that return to the northerlies which has been hinted at after that milder (or rather, less cold since it isn't forecast to get all that mild) spell which is forecast for the end of the week and the weekend.
This is just typical of what you see all the time when the forecast models promise a really cold spell coming up only for them to then back away from that, and for that really cold spell to never materialise in the end. This is the same sort of thing which also happens during the summer when the models promise a heatwave ahead of us which then, never actually happens.
The summer which we entered into six months ago was the perfect example of that because back then, I lost count of the number of times when according to the models, we were going to get a massive build of high pressure from the Azores and the promise of drier weather and a heatwave from that which of course, never actually happened.
In the end, the South of England did get a decent first half to the summer but for here, we ended up having a very poor summer with our wettest June on record, every single summer month coming out wetter than average and at least one of our summer months being cooler than average. If that doesn't tell you anything about how reliable these models are (especially further into the less reliable time frame) then nothing will.
Having said that though, there are still no signs on the horizon of the sort of mild, wet and stormy weather which has dominated our recent winters with the exception of last winter (although even that was still mild) and that at least, has to be something to be positive about.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.