Parts of France continue to see temps near 30 4 day's off November on this morning's ECM

So even after the first trough disruption fails, ECM still sets up the dug-down low near the Azores by day 10, while having built a mighty plume of heat to the south - and yes that is actual 'heat' not far south of us, as Gavin D handily highlighted this morning. 

Starting to wonder if the Halloween Heater will be seen for the third time in four years... I'm having to get used to having birthdays with early-mid-afternoon temps near 20*C! 

The record Haloween max was 23.6C. I wonder if that is under threat this year. Amazing.

After all the excitement of this week, the Atlantic goes into snooze mode, not to say sunbathing for a couple of weeks. But if you credit GFS at long range, the weekend of Nov 4/5 will be a bad idea for a bonfire party. Miserably cold in addition to rain and wind.

Looking at the bigger picture the 12z had a split vortex with high pressure  from Alaska to Scandinavia at one point... I'm waiting to see if continues...

Quite nice in seeing these warm plumes being shown. 20c by the end of the month? Yes please!!!

Quite funny as I believe it was The Star (not the Express this time) which wrote a piece (about 7-8 days ago!) on the likelihood of a record-breaking warm Halloween. They could be right.... for once.

GFS06z well worth a look from this point onwards:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Prizes for everyone if it were to verify. 

That's the first wintry GFS run of the season... 

Quite a few chart forecasts have hinted at a cold spell in the first week of November.

Wouldn't surprise me, the weather always turns cold around Bonfire night. You could bet your house on it.

Not in my experience it doesn't.   Mild, wet and windy is as likely as clear and cold; possibly more likely.

That would be extremely wintry for the NW of Scotland. Thundersnow there for sure. I mean we all know it won't verify though...

I agree. 

Lots of cold air moving into northern Europe next week

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

GFS, and to a lesser extent ECM, show an Arctic rather than Siberian origin fr this air

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=168&mode=0&carte=

I'm quite happy for the cold air to stay there for now if we can draw on it come January

We could have our first widespread frosts as we head into the new month. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_156_1.png

And there’s my first winter post. ;-) 

First toppler of the season?

That seems to have been a bit of a trend in the last few runs across the models. If it lasts for about 6 weeks we could be in business. 

Quite similar 12Z to late October 2012, snow fell really quite far south and it was the earliest snow had fallen in several decades at least. 

Didn't snow fall in some southern counties in late October 2008 Q, say around Halloween? I seem to remember there being quite a bit of discussion about that on this forum around that time.

October 2008 was much better here.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1680

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681

The snow row numbers starting to appear on the GEFS charts might be as close I/we will get for a while!

It did indeed but was 3 days later which makes a big difference insofar as records go. You will be hard pressed to find any snow event earlier than the 26th October.

In the south you mean presumably Q? We had inches of the stuff on the 3rd of October 2004.

For what it’s worth the ECM op run is similiar to the GFS run (not that either are snowy for the record!)

xmas day 93 was the best that I can remember... you must have had a decent first year!