Met office Hadley back as normal. 

6.0c to the 7th

Jan: 4.0(rounded) 

Thanks Gavin P

Glad to see some normality has returned.....

Here are the latest charts and tables for February. The CET will dip slightly below average this weekend before rising again. Take the figures for next week though with a large pinch of salt though. Any milder interlude may not last long and may not be as mild as being indicated here. All to play for at the moment in the second half of the month.

So far my estimate for February is very close to the Hadley provisional figure, unlike January.

Also below is the full list of predictions for February

Met office Hadley             5.6c.          Anomaly           1.2.c       Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                          5.32c.        Anomaly           1.12c.

Netweather                       6.2c.          Anomaly           2.1c.

Peasedown St John       5.9c.         Anomaly         -1.1c.

Met Office Hadley            5.1c.         Anomaly        0.8c .   Provisional to  9th.

Metcheck                         4.82c.       Anomaly        0.63c.

Netweather                      5.7c.         Anomaly        1.57c.

Peasedown St John       5.4c.       Anomaly        -1.6c.

My Annual     5.1c.  Difference   -0.6c.      

I thought you meant +9.6 c when I read that originally and the minus was a dash ! Which to be fair, is not beyond the realms of possibility given that Dec 2015 and also the period from mid January to mid Feb 2002, were not far off that magnitude. I actually think we are overdue an extreme February at both ends of the scale. We haven't had an exceptionally mild one since 2002 nor exceptionally cold since 1991. This year is plainly not going to deliver either way ! 

Met Office Hadley           4.8c.           Anomaly       0.5c.    Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                        4.51c.         Anomaly       0.31c.

Netweather                     5.28c.         Anomaly       1.09c.

Peasedown St John        5.0c.      Anomaly     -1.1c.  

The CET will reach its lowest point for the month after today when I calculate it will be at 4.38C. A slow rise starts tomorrow before things begin to accelerate. Currently I expect the CET to reach 6.11C by the 25th.

Could be looking at a similar CET figure to February 2011 and 2014. Both those years saw a very warm Spring with April 2011 of course setting an all time record.

If we look back at other years recently where the Feb CET has been above 6C we see that generally March is also a very warm month. For example, 1990, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2014. The only exception was 1995. Prior to 1990 you have to go back to 1961 to find a Feb CET more than 6C. That year also saw a very warm March. Same story for 1945.

So I would say that if this mild second half of February verifies then we are odds on for a very warm March as well.

The third week looks very mild with 7-8c possible. The last week there's the possibility of a Atlantic polar flow still so anything from 5c is still on for now but as GW says it could stay very mild with High pressure to the S/Sw

Met office Hadley       4.81c.      Anomaly         0.53c.          ESTIMATED

Metcheck                    4,26c,     Anomaly         0.06c.

Netweather                 4.97c.     Anomaly         0.78c.

Peasedown St John    4.6c.        Anomaly         -2.4c.    

Unexpected tropical interference from the Indian Ocean and an unusual rapid warm-up of the far-eastern tropical Pacific to well above normal SSTs have made a mockery of most monthly outlooks issued for this month.

Success in long-range meteorology is about getting near to the mark more often than not and so such tragic cases as this one can be tolerated when they are brought about by such wildcard factors.

Of course the CET competition does not play by these rules and only extraordinary success/luck for the rest of the year will do. Well... what have I got to lose? 

The CET will reach its lowest point for the month after today when I calculate it will be at 4.38C. A slow rise starts tomorrow before things begin to accelerate. Currently I expect the CET to reach 6.11C by the 25th.

Could be looking at a similar CET figure to February 2011 and 2014. Both those years saw a very warm Spring with April 2011 of course setting an all time record.

If we look back at other years recently where the Feb CET has been above 6C we see that generally March is also a very warm month. For example, 1990, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2014. The only exception was 1995. Prior to 1990 you have to go back to 1961 to find a Feb CET more than 6C. That year also saw a very warm March. Same story for 1945.

So I would say that if this mild second half of February verifies then we are odds on for a very warm March as well.

GW..

Are you using Pershore College now for your data?

The third week looks very mild with 7-8c possible. The last week there's the possibility of a Atlantic polar flow still so anything from 5c is still on for now but as GW says it could stay very mild with High pressure to the S/Sw

Damage limitation for me as I think  I'm holed below the waterline as far as the competition goes this year. All hands to the pumps.  Some are already sunk.  

Need a frosty morning high in the south at least, and a cold last week.

Unexpected tropical interference from the Indian Ocean and an unusual rapid warm-up of the far-eastern tropical Pacific to well above normal SSTs have made a mockery of most monthly outlooks issued for this month.

Success in long-range meteorology is about getting near to the mark more often than not and so such tragic cases as this one can be tolerated when they are brought about by such wildcard factors.

Of course the CET competition does not play by these rules and only extraordinary success/luck for the rest of the year will do. Well... what have I got to lose? 

With supposedly strong hints that Feb would have at least a cold period, I factored this in, and even resisted going lower than 4.1c. A week into the month and it looked like I'd plumped for too high. But that 'cold spell' was truly woeful. Haven't calculated it, but the mean max/min temp between Thursday and Sunday IMBY is around 3c.

Still, like a football team newly promoted to the Prem who wins the first couple of games, I've had my moment in the sun, and will now slink back into mid-table mediocrity

Nothing from Met Office Hadley

Metcheck         4.17c.   Anomaly     -0.04c.

Netweather      4.8c.    Anomaly      0.67c.

Peasedown St John       4.4c.   Anomaly  -0.9c.   

Last week I was thinking my 5c guess was too high. Now I think it might be too low. Next week it might be Goldilocks' porridge. 

Hadley is not accessible at the moment

It's back again now

Shows 4.52C (provisional) and an anom of +0.44C up to 13th Feb

Hooray  for Hadley...  4.5c. Anomaly   0.4c.

Metcheck            4.16c.  Anomaly   -0.04c.

Netweather         4.86c.   Anomaly   0.67c.

Peasedown St John    4.6c.  Anomaly    -0.7c.