So far this winter has been cooler than last year (that would not be difficult) but slightly warmer than 2014/15 (which was a very average winter). January should come in cooler than average (perhaps by around 0.5C) although the south has seen a much largely anomaly whereas the north has been close to average.

Please post your predictions for February in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 2nd.

Historic summary for February

1971-2000 4.2C

1981-2010 4.4C

1996-2015 4.9C

We have only had two significantly cooler than average February's since 1996. They were 2.8C in 2010 and 3.2C in 2013. A few other years came in just below 4C. But generally February has been quite mild with 7C+ in 1998 and 2002. Warmest Feb since 2002 was 2011 with 6.4C.

Chart of February CET with rolling 10 year mean since 1961

 

Latest model output

After a mild start temperatures may trend back towards average. No sign at the moment of any significant cold weather. But that could change. We have a SSW at the moment which could make things interesting for the second half of February. But again that is very uncertain. It does look very unsettled though. So the generally fairly dry theme that has been ongoing for most of Autumn and Winter may come to an end this month.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Met Office contingency planners

Not yet issued - should be published on Monday hopefully.

February CET outlook based on current model runs

A very mild start to the month looks highly likely

Pattern matching

Looking at years with a similar CET to December and January this year, generally the following February is close to average. Reasonable matches include 2011/12, 2002/03, 2000/01, 1972/73, 1971/72, 1959/60. The one exception in recent times was 1977/78 which saw a fairly chilly February.

 

A 2011/2012 match would not be too bad. Feb 2012 bought a decent snowfall and some very cold temps at the start of the month, which at one stage the Meto said could persist all month. Unfortunately the month petered out into non descript mildness in the end.

Anyhow, 3c for me please, blocking a bit further north than Jan and hence a bit colder, wishful thinking hey 😉😀.

Cheers GW, much appreciated!

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Quite a hard month to call. A mild first and probably second week looks most likely but the question really lies on the second half of the month. The SSW currently taking place is quite a large one, so it is bound to cause some blocking to set up. However "blocking" in winter doesn't necessarily mean "cold". It is very dependent on where it sets up exactly.

Taking that, I'm going to go for a conservative 4.0C please, GW.

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4.4°c please.

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4.8 please GW

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5.5C for me please

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File my 4.75c please.  Though with wind and  rain and perhaps cooler toward the end it will probably be way out.

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4.9c please

4.7 please

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5.3 please

It is going to be a cold one overall, after a mild start - please give me 3.1 degrees.

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5.2 for me please. mild start, cooler blip, mild end

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I've kept thinking it's bound to get colder and I've been wrong. So I'm going to go with the way winter has shaped up so far and go with...

5c please GW. 

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Insane cold in the second half of February 1.6c.

 

Cheers 

 

 

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3.9 thanks

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4.8 please

5.1 please

I keep going cold and keep going wrong ...

But I think we could get some half decent weather later in the month.

So 4.5c

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5.75  C please GW.

Incidentally you mention Feb 78 in your pattern matching.If I remember correctly there was a huge blizzard affecting the SW of England in that month.

The contingency planners forecast is now out. Met Office hedging their bets somewhat on February. Highest probability is for a cyclonic Atlantic influence which has been absent for most of the Autumn and Winter. In which case a mild month can be expected. But the block to the east could push further west in which case it would be much cooler. Also they mention the SSW although this is not expected to have an impact until near the end of the month. Sounds about right as the impact of a SSW tends to be about 3 weeks after it reaches it peak which is expected to be   early in Feb.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf