So far this winter has been cooler than last year (that would not be difficult) but slightly warmer than 2014/15 (which was a very average winter). January should come in cooler than average (perhaps by around 0.5C) although the south has seen a much largely anomaly whereas the north has been close to average.
Please post your predictions for February in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 2nd.
Historic summary for February
1971-2000 4.2C
1981-2010 4.4C
1996-2015 4.9C
We have only had two significantly cooler than average February's since 1996. They were 2.8C in 2010 and 3.2C in 2013. A few other years came in just below 4C. But generally February has been quite mild with 7C+ in 1998 and 2002. Warmest Feb since 2002 was 2011 with 6.4C.
Chart of February CET with rolling 10 year mean since 1961
Latest model output
After a mild start temperatures may trend back towards average. No sign at the moment of any significant cold weather. But that could change. We have a SSW at the moment which could make things interesting for the second half of February. But again that is very uncertain. It does look very unsettled though. So the generally fairly dry theme that has been ongoing for most of Autumn and Winter may come to an end this month.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
Met Office contingency planners
Not yet issued - should be published on Monday hopefully.
February CET outlook based on current model runs
A very mild start to the month looks highly likely
Pattern matching
Looking at years with a similar CET to December and January this year, generally the following February is close to average. Reasonable matches include 2011/12, 2002/03, 2000/01, 1972/73, 1971/72, 1959/60. The one exception in recent times was 1977/78 which saw a fairly chilly February.
Edited by moderator
29 March 2017 10:08:12
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Reason: Not specified