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The EC46 is out and not suprisingly it has flipped cold in the short to mid term.Between the 8th - 18th February temperatures in central southern England are generally 3 - 3.5c below normal. These temperatures recover to average from the 23rd February and then remain close to average for the remander of the run.In Scotland it is a similar but the return to average is from the 21st..suggesting the block sinks south. A big evening coming up..which way will it go.
The EC46 is out and not suprisingly it has flipped cold in the short to mid term.
Between the 8th - 18th February temperatures in central southern England are generally 3 - 3.5c below normal. These temperatures recover to average from the 23rd February and then remain close to average for the remander of the run.
In Scotland it is a similar but the return to average is from the 21st..suggesting the block sinks south.
A big evening coming up..which way will it go.
Just to add the NH stats are the biggest waste of time ever... totally & utterly pointless to review in every way -Why?When the stats used to be Posted (around 2012 ) on the model statistics page there was a section specifically disgnated for GFS regionals ( North pole , atlantic , pacific , Europe , Asia & so on ) - its not there any more- but what it proved beyond a shadow of a doubt was that the 06 z & 18z had to the worst regional scores in the areas important to us like atlantic / pole etc & that within each cycle specific runs also had really specific weaknesses in specific areas over & above the 06z/18z variability- So you may be looking at a northerly in FI & not know that the 00z handles the atlantic worst out the 4 cycles, or the 12z handles NW europe specifically bad- without that key knowledge the overall 'smoothed' score is pointless.Add to that the 'GEM' is gash. Plain & simple. With so many bias & pitfall I actually dont know why I look at it sometimes - probably entertainment value.Since its upgrade the ECM has generally been worse with blocking & the GFS- well its always been generally rubbish anyway--- My overall summary of any modelling from the suite is as followsGFS - always to flat & eastward bias ECM - To amplified bias Meeting point / weighting usually 70% towards ECM but not always - NCEP usually put more weighting on the ECM for the auper ensemble mean-UKMO - hard to explain- the grid that UKMO used always smooths a lot of systems out making every transition seemless - which is perhaps how most transitions 'used' to be however it never seems to be that way anymore...That said UKMO has had a stella winter - I think its performance has been pretty second to none - the 'smoothing' style means less volatility & the 70% 'zone' that I referred to which is the sort of midpoint of the GFS & ECM - The UKMO has lived around there @ 120/144 pretty much all winter.The UKMO is my first page every morning & will continue to be going forward- it may not be number 1 on NH but its proved itself time & time again for 'regionality' over thr past few years - even creating 'shropshires' WTF moment when it went against all models in Mar 13 to show an undercutting snow event....In terms of today- If yesterday eves modes were the peak 10/10 then today is 8/9- the cold spell hasnt gone- however a chunk of size of the cold has been reduced by the models ejecting SW out of russia, the subsequent low heights dont quite make it 'round the high' & some runs have the upper air cold pool running out of steam just to the east before lifting out NW up past Eastern scotland-The models that do this are the ones promoting more atlantic energy moving east creating the upward motion of lifting the cold air out- im not convinced of this due to the repetative fails of the models over the last 10 weeks - so maybe a slightly toned down output yes- but bad / awful ... no-Obviously this evolution always favoured the ESE/ ENE so posters more on the periphery like Ireland / Wales / the SW etc may feel that what started out as an average attempt at a cold spell may be now just a glance from the SE- buts thats just a real Imby reflection- for the UK as a whole it looks very cold with potential snow in the offering.... especially with the atlantic sliding SE on many a run....
which direction are the winds coming in from? Guess?
Great energy entertainment value on the GEM 12z ... If only if was more reliable....
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=1&mode=1&archive=0
UKMO / GFS blend good tonightThe ship has steadied...
Tally for your own sanity I'd recommend you wait until each run is at least half-way through before self-administration of the prescription Valium 😉
GEM - a superb model in my humble opinion 👍😍
As ridiculous as it sounds anyone think the 12z will be well off the mark in it's early stages? Look at this low to the W of Ireland, it is far too deep which I think has a knock on effect on our cold pool late next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_72_1.pngI think any cold may get shunted further west if GFS is indeed overplaying this low. ECM has also made much less out of the low but we don't have cold to our east to a great extent.
GEM on the other hand.............
The ship has steadied...
Has it?
GFS sinking at day 9 after a waft of cold air. UKMO looks the same as GFS at 144
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020312/gfsnh-0-222.png?12
so much for this SSW
devastating stuff for coldies. Suckered again everytime by the models!
I was waiting for the usual suspects to jump on the GFS bandwagon post day 8.I am not disappointed.
I am just waiting for a glass of water and a cream tea to arrive.
Has it?GFS sinking at day 9 after a waft of cold air. UKMO looks the same as GFS at 144
Come on Beast...seriously ? Your standard of posting has dropped massively this year, for a seasoned poster we expect more from you.
Indeed..the ship has steadied...past attempts in recent years have often seen a monumental collapse soon after a couple of harmless looking cracks have appeared.
Tonight's runs so far have reinforced the dry and cold message for later next week.
Lets get the cold in place and worry about the synoptics thereafter.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020312/gfsnh-0-222.png?12so much for this SSWdevastating stuff for coldies. Suckered again everytime by the models!
where does it sit in ENS?
Day 9 GFS is at this point almost irrelevant...
The core difference between GFS/UKMO V GEM this eve is at just 72 hrs big divergence as GFS/UKMO break the vortex chunk off sending it SE - The GEM like yesterday sends it SW -
The euro / GFS blend is the firm favourite although GEM whilst being outrageous is just about within the envelope- all be it right to the deep cold outside...@-20 !
ffs Beast... Ease your devastation at the day 9 GFS chart by having a look at the GEM... It's probably one of the best 2 or 3 EVER runs in the sub 10 day period.
Come on Beast...seriously ? Indeed..the ship has steadied...past attempts in recent years have often seen a monumental collapse soon after a couple of harmless looking cracks have appeared.Tonight's runs so far have reinforced the dry and cold message for later next week. Lets get the cold in place and worry about the synoptics thereafter.
Come on Beast...seriously ?
This is borderline trolling. Who has been suckered in and why are you picking one op run from one model to draw such a conclusion? The SSW happened but that doesn't guarantee immediate cold, nor has anyone claimed it does. The final outcome from the potential easterly is far from certain...
Why so much LP over Greenland? No Scandi HP either!?
The UKMet op at +144 looks terrific to me with the Scandinavian HP being reinforced by the legion of the north. Can't see what all the gloom is about
It looks slack and it's only a two day event . - Well looking at the 12z gfs.