Steady as she goes this morning imo
We seem to be reaching a consensus for a spell of chilly/cold weather, with the core of the colder stuff down here being over a 4 day or so period. There's an outside chance of it being genuinely cold rather than chilly and a lower outside chance (imo) of the pattern collapsing and turning milder. (That's from a SE perspective, I imagine it'll be colder further North closer to the cold pool although depends on how much the lower air warms over the ocean I guess - down here with a SE feed we don't really need cold 850s to get cold, as a week or so back showed).
Looking at the GFS postage stamps through the run and there's a lot of HP about suggesting it won't be zonal but where the HP sits will obviously have a big impact on temperature. As with the last few days HP driving the weather doesn't mean it'll be dry and if we end up with LPs wandering against a block again we could still have some wet interludes in an otherwise blocked pattern.
Given we've got a cold pool with -10 850's wandering over the North Sea I'd be surprised if somewhere up the East Coast didn't see some snow from things as it stands although as has been highlighted details like this needs to be looked at 24-48 hours out rather than from 5+ days.
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