The notable interest this morning is the depth & NE extent of the Italian low has increased around 144-168 thus reducing the worry around 'warm' SE winds-
Keep an eye on that as it may yet prove a pivitol feature going forward...

 

Err, it actually shows light rain/snow/whatever across large chunks of the country... that's what that blue stuff is!

 

Ok fair enough pressure looks to high to me though.

---

 

 

It's painful isn't it trying to get snow in this bloody country.  Ukmo day 7 looks cold but very very very dry.

Always has been an unusual outcome for lowland England; I suspect that's why people agonise about it. If we had cold snowy winters every year the novelty value would lessen.

You need a decent source of moisture for snow and that means either disturbances or low pressure systems or 'lake effect'.  The current set up has always looked to have more of a south easterly flow with high pressure dominating, so decent snow has always been problematic.

Let's see how cold an airmass we get next week. We know the models don't deal with short waves and disturbances until nearer the time so a lack of decent snow in the current output shouldn't mean it will be a write-off for snow.

The general trend looks OK; the detail will change. 

---

The notable interest this morning is the depth & NE extent of the Italian low has increased around 144-168 thus reducing the worry around 'warm' SE winds-
Keep an eye on that as it may yet prove a pivitol feature going forward...

 

 

Ensembles show a warm up though after a 5/6 day cold spell for De Bilt anyway. Very difficult to be optimistic this morning. 

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

 

---

Good post. 

As the old saying goes "get the cold in place first then let's see what happens"

 

 

Always has been an unusual outcome for lowland England; I suspect that's why people agonise about it. If we had cold snowy winters every year the novelty value would lessen.

You need a decent source of moisture for snow and that means either disturbances or low pressure systems or 'lake effect'.  The current set up has always looked to have more of a south easterly flow with high pressure dominating, so decent snow has always been problematic.

Let's see how cold an airmass we get next week. We know the models don't deal with short waves and disturbances until nearer the time so a lack of decent snow in the current output shouldn't mean it will be a write-off for snow.

The general trend looks OK; the detail will change. 

---

 

 

 

Ensembles show a warm up though after a 5/6 day cold spell for De Bilt anyway. Very difficult to be optimistic this morning. 

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

 

They show cold until the end of the ECM op at day 10 which is a good start and anything beyond then is in the very unreliable timeframe. 

In medium term ECM op is to the milder side of the main cluster perhaps indicating cold pool is favoured to be slightly south of the Op outcome.  

---

 

? 

They show cold until the end of the ECM op at day 10. 

In medium term ECM op is to the milder side of the main cluster perhaps indicating cold pool is favoured to be slightly south of the Op outcome.  

 

Ensembles show cold from the 8th to about the 14th. Never gets mild but not cold after the 14th. If we want cold here from an easterly we need De Bilt to be at least 0c maxes.

Maybe I've got out of bed the wrong side this morning but finding it difficult to be optimistic this morning.  We need upgrades tonight .

---

Steady as she goes this morning imo

We seem to be reaching a consensus for a spell of chilly/cold weather, with the core of the colder stuff down here being over a 4 day or so period. There's an outside chance of it being genuinely cold rather than chilly and a lower outside chance (imo) of the pattern collapsing and turning milder. (That's from a SE perspective, I imagine it'll be colder further North closer to the cold pool although depends on how much the lower air warms over the ocean I guess - down here with a SE feed we don't really need cold 850s to get cold, as a week or so back showed).

Looking at the GFS postage stamps through the run and there's a lot of HP about suggesting it won't be zonal but where the HP sits will obviously have a big impact on temperature. As with the last few days HP driving the weather doesn't mean it'll be dry and if we end up with LPs wandering against a block again we could still have some wet interludes in an otherwise blocked pattern.

Given we've got a cold pool with -10 850's wandering over the North Sea I'd be surprised if somewhere up the East Coast didn't see some snow from things as it stands although as has been highlighted details like this needs to be looked at 24-48 hours out rather than from 5+ days.

 

---

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif 

---

Given we've got a cold pool with -10 850's wandering over the North Sea I'd be surprised if somewhere up the East Coast didn't see some snow from things as it stands although as has been highlighted details like this needs to be looked at 24-48 hours out rather than from 5+ days.

Even though the models are notoriously naff when it comes to convective stuff, the GFS shows this just 5 days out - in this case parts of eastern Scotland really benefit from a greater depth of cold (upper instability + cold 850s + SSTs of 7C have a good chance of spawning heavy snow showers).

---

Here's the spread on the 850s IMBY from the 0z ECM.  Again the Op is one of the very mildest in the 96-144 hour period so colder corrections are possible if not certain.

---

The outlook looks pretty nailed for the next 7+ days with it turning colder but dry, not a lot of precipitation around so snow chances look slim at best. Hopefully we'll see more in the way of widespread frosts than the last spell.

Interesting reading over last few days. Talk about over analysising the charts. It is quite clear that none of them have a real grip on anything beyond the next two to three days.  Ever wonder why the seasoned posters only pop in a couple of times a week.  One thing is for sure, something is happening and from what I have deduced over this past week, is, it isn't going to be zonal beyond mid next week and probably not for quite some time.  The trend is definitely below average cold for the foreseeable future.  now the icing on the cake has to be the effect of the current SSW which cohen suggest is still at least a week away, though I don't think he is so upbeat about the deep intense cold he was predicting a couple of weeks back, but nonetheless still something to be aware of. As quite a few have mentioned the key period for this current development of weather pattern to start is around the 8th - 11th Feb and we should be fairly confident of its general form within the next 48 hours.  If it goes as the pattern suggest an E/SE flow off the continent a lot will then depend on that PV split as to weather it becomes intense cold. 

Personally I think the fun will start in around three weeks time when the Atlantic wakes up and tries to displace a fairly stuburn cold pool over us.  The results can be extremely interesting particularly for the SW (18Feb78). 

😎from sunny Dubai.  

Phil glad to see you mentioning the Feb 78 blizzard in the SW>because it was just the SW its been rather forgotten but produced massive snowfall and drifting-probably the worst since 1963.I'd be happy to have an event like that even if it was short spell ,rather than weeks of rather cold and dry.

 

 

Higher HP over Greenland and Scandi on the 06Z GFS at 174 - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0

 

---

 

Phil glad to see you mentioning the Feb 78 blizzard in the SW>because it was just the SW its been rather forgotten but produced massive snowfall and drifting-probably the worst since 1963.I'd be happy to have an event like that even if it was short spell ,rather than weeks of rather cold and dry.

 

 

Interesting chart on 17/2/78 - http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119780217.gif with the little LP spinning up towards Cornwall.

Massive Atlantic LP and no Azores HP to be seen.

---

 

Even though the models are notoriously naff when it comes to convective stuff, the GFS shows this just 5 days out - in this case parts of eastern Scotland really benefit from a greater depth of cold (upper instability + cold 850s + SSTs of 7C have a good chance of spawning heavy snow showers).

Must admit I'd not bothered looking at the precip charts - interesting to see light snow for our neck of the woods too!

In some ways the slack flow could benefit anyone under any showers that do form as they won't move off too quickly, would limit inland penetration though.

---

a smidge better 6z run this morning. with LP appearing to be deeper over over the med effectively ensuring the wind direction remains a stiff easterly/south easterly. rather than southerly.

 

 

---

Also - the energy to the west looks like its beginning to slip underneath the run. Whilst not being a snowmageddon run - this could actually steer us back into a much more favoured position longer term.

 

edit: I was wrong

---

Gfs 6z pretty much kills the easterly completely.  It even brings in some cold zonal from the NW at day 9. Horrific run

---

I see the 6z run seems to want to live up to it's overly progressive reputation (well, I always tend to think it's the most progressive one anyway!).

Sinks the block readily and fires energy North.

I suspect the ens will be similar to yesterday in terms of a step back from the 00z albeit not a disaster in the short to mid term. Given the other GFS Op runs, the other ens sets and ECM/UKMO I'd guess at this evolution being a little suspect but you never know

---