">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017020312/cma-1-156.png?12

I regard the CMA quite highly...FWIW Here it pummels England with a bitter blast in FI:

Pummels northeastern parts surely? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017020312/cma-2-180.png?12 

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I regard the CMA quite highly...FWIW Here it pummels England with a bitter blast in FI:

Pummels northeastern parts surely? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017020312/cma-2-180.png?12 

Sleet on the coast?

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I have just watched Gavin's video on how he views the chances of much colder conditions .. always find him very pragmatic and sensible in his approach .. the Azore High is our enemy !!!

http://www.gavsweathervids.com 

 

I regard the CMA quite highly...FWIW Here it pummels England with a bitter blast in FI:

Pummels northeastern parts surely? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017020312/cma-2-180.png?12 

 

Looks pretty bitter down south too! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017020312/cma-1-180.png?12

 

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Pummels northeastern parts surely? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017020312/cma-2-180.png?12 

Sleet on the coast?

Not a chance...

 

 

 

 

 

 

it would be rain 

Here's the ECM so far http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017020312/ECM1-72.GIF?03-0 It will be interesting to see if this takes a cold turn or a more mobile Atlantic one later in the run.

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ECM t72 Face -off. 955mb low versus 1040 mb high.

UK is the battleground, which force will be victorious?

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ECM is poised so finely at t96, hide behind the Sofa time?

leaves us in a col at 120

 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 
Definite dialling back of the cold there.

I'm not sure about the negative comments on the 12Z UKMO 144 though because to my eye it is one of the best UKMO charts we've seen for a long while.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Yes, ensembles have tightened up around that critcal 8th-12th, ditching a lot of the more extreme cold solutions, but at least there is less uncertainty around the initial -5C 850's. So GFS is starting to dilute things so let's see what the other models do in the next day or so. I think by then we will know if we are going to have to rely on late February, which frankly was the situation anyway just a few days ago. You could say backtrack from last couple of days but a step forward from before that!

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The UKMet op at +144 looks terrific to me with the Scandinavian HP being reinforced by the legion of the north. Can't see what all the gloom is about

I agree JW, the 144 looks very good

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One of the best 144 winter charts from the ECM in 4 years:

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http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017020312/ECM1-144.GIF?03-0 

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ECM looking better aligned at 144 with the undercutting low heading into France.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017020312/ECM1-144.GIF?03-0 
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017020312/ECM0-144.GIF?03-0 

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They look broadly similiar to the 06z suite. My advice? Don't get suckered in... 

Here are rough splits easterly:milder for 06 GEFS and 12h.

144h 75:25(06h 60;40)

180h 75:25(06h 85:15)

240h 70:30(06h 70:30)

360h 65:35(06h 75;25)

So you are right Doc broadly similar numerically.

but still very nervous that in the battle could go either way.

 

One of the best 144 winter charts from the ECM in 4 years:

An excellent chart , might restore confidence in some

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Here are rough splits easterly:milder for 06 GEFS and 12h.

144h 75:25(06h 60;40)

180h 75:25(06h 85:15)

240h 70:30(06h 70:30)

360h 65:35(06h 75;25)

So you are right Doc broadly similar numerically.

but still very nervous that in the battle could go either way.

 

Thanks Roger and your last line I think would be the one best bit of advice that everyone could heed. 

The train is only coming when you can see the train 

Edit: It is certainly on the right track on this run http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017020312/ECM1-168.GIF?03-0 

 

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Excellent again from ECM

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ECM 12Z 168 looking good - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif 

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Great output again,,,, further out into the reaches of time. As soon as it tiptoes into the reliable then it all seems to turn to pants.

ECM on board with a 1050 Scandi high at 144 

Looking good on this run...but how long will the cold last

Atlantic pushed away the ECM high quite quickly on the 00z