The Weather Outlook

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four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2014 12:52:49

Assuming there was no weather before 1850 or whenever.

North York Moors weather 
Chiltern Blizzard
16 February 2014 14:33:02
I was reading about the wettest 3 month period in E+W history, which is apparently Nov 1929 to Jan 1930 at 812mm - can't quite believe it's that high but as we climb past the winter record (as we surely will) and to the season record (which is probably safe), the wettest 3 month period would be the next to compare ourselves to, and show how 'unprecedented' this period is.

Andrew

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Devonian
16 February 2014 15:28:46

I was reading about the wettest 3 month period in E+W history, which is apparently Nov 1929 to Jan 1930 at 812mm - can't quite believe it's that high but as we climb past the winter record (as we surely will) and to the season record (which is probably safe), the wettest 3 month period would be the next to compare ourselves to, and show how 'unprecedented' this period is.

Andrew

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Otoh, would we expect the record rainfall for different period to be the same? And is it a fair comparision?  I would guess that the potential maximum rainfall in autumn might well be higher than for winter given the air is warmer then and thus hold more moisture.

 

KevBrads1
16 February 2014 15:37:57

I was reading about the wettest 3 month period in E+W history, which is apparently Nov 1929 to Jan 1930 at 812mm - can't quite believe it's that high but as we climb past the winter record (as we surely will) and to the season record (which is probably safe), the wettest 3 month period would be the next to compare ourselves to, and show how 'unprecedented' this period is.

Andrew

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Too high. That period was 500mm.

The wettest 3 month period is October to December 2000 with 512.3mm

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

roger63
16 February 2014 16:07:05

It's not just southern Engalnd braking records.

Down here in the south of France Nice has apparently reported a record 550mm of rain so far this winter.That's around 22 inches! 

Saint Snow
16 February 2014 17:00:07

1994/95 was certainly a pretty wet winter here as far as I recall, although there were more instances of snow and frost that winter in my area than has been the case this time. I recall the weekend of Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th December 1994 very well as a slow miving atlantic weather front got stuck over Scotland that weekend and delivered copious amounts of rain in the west; there was quite a lot of flooding not far from where I live.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

 

I don't remember it, either.

Although, in this region I don't think this winter's been especially wet. It certainly hasn't felt that way. I know to the end of Jan, the MetO data confirmed this.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

David M Porter
16 February 2014 17:08:33

1994/95 was certainly a pretty wet winter here as far as I recall, although there were more instances of snow and frost that winter in my area than has been the case this time. I recall the weekend of Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th December 1994 very well as a slow miving atlantic weather front got stuck over Scotland that weekend and delivered copious amounts of rain in the west; there was quite a lot of flooding not far from where I live.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

I don't remember it, either.

Although, in this region I don't think this winter's been especially wet. It certainly hasn't felt that way. I know to the end of Jan, the MetO data confirmed this.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

It would be great if this year's summer is something along the lines of 1995; that would certainly go some way towards helping all those communities in the south that have been affected by flooding recently to recover from it, to some degree anyway.

I fear though that some people's homes and businesses in the worst affected areas recently may have been damaged beyond repair, especially those who have farmland.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

some faraway beach
16 February 2014 17:10:14

Although even if it does get to the top there are quite a few similarly wet Winters, so not "unprecedented" at all.

Originally Posted by: lanky 

If it gets to the top of the list of wet winters it WILL be unprecedented in terms of wet winters

Because that's what the defintion of unprecedented is

Originally Posted by: four 

The definition of un-precedented is nothing similar having preceded it. The list shows several similarly wet winters occurring throughout the 150-odd years recorded.

If it gets to the top of the list by, say, 10 or 15 cm, then everyone would agree it's a record, but few people would feel they'd experienced something they'd never experienced before (a lousy, wet and windy UK winter with flooding on a very minor scale compared with e.g. 2007 in Yorkshire or 1919 or 1703 on the Somerset Levels).

If it gets to the top by 100 or 150 cm, then perhaps we'd see effects without precedent, because the next 12 days would have to have been, well, unprecedentedly horrendous. 

But so far we've seen nothing of that scale. Just weather consistent with the English climate and nothing inconsistent with the English climate.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

UncleAlbert
16 February 2014 21:55:23

Although even if it does get to the top there are quite a few similarly wet Winters, so not "unprecedented" at all.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 

If it gets to the top of the list of wet winters it WILL be unprecedented in terms of wet winters

Because that's what the defintion of unprecedented is

Originally Posted by: lanky 

The definition of un-precedented is nothing similar having preceded it. The list shows several similarly wet winters occurring throughout the 150-odd years recorded.

If it gets to the top of the list by, say, 10 or 15 cm, then everyone would agree it's a record, but few people would feel they'd experienced something they'd never experienced before (a lousy, wet and windy UK winter with flooding on a very minor scale compared with e.g. 2007 in Yorkshire or 1919 or 1703 on the Somerset Levels).

If it gets to the top by 100 or 150 cm, then perhaps we'd see effects without precedent, because the next 12 days would have to have been, well, unprecedentedly horrendous. 

 

 

But so far we've seen nothing of that scale. Just weather consistent with the English climate and nothing inconsistent with the English climate.

Originally Posted by: four 

As we may well have already passed the winter rainfall record for Emgland and Wales and if that is the case it has been achieved in just over 2 months, (there was very little rain before mid December), then I think it would be hard to find a precedent for this in wintertime.

SydneyonTees
16 February 2014 22:16:27

1994/95 was certainly a pretty wet winter here as far as I recall, although there were more instances of snow and frost that winter in my area than has been the case this time. I recall the weekend of Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th December 1994 very well as a slow miving atlantic weather front got stuck over Scotland that weekend and delivered copious amounts of rain in the west; there was quite a lot of flooding not far from where I live.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

I don't remember it, either.

Although, in this region I don't think this winter's been especially wet. It certainly hasn't felt that way. I know to the end of Jan, the MetO data confirmed this.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

 

I remember winter 1994/95 very well as I was at Uni and got a casual job as a Royal Mail Postie on top of my bar work to try and earn some extra cash to go traveling in the summer  I was only contracted to do Fridays and Saturdays I recall but always seemed to be peeing down, add to that the shoddy bike they gave me! As a rule I don't quit but to be honest I thought there has to be a better way to earn some more cash so jacked it in and got more bar work instead. So that bad wet winter ended my brief Royal Mail career lol

some faraway beach
16 February 2014 22:36:56

Although even if it does get to the top there are quite a few similarly wet Winters, so not "unprecedented" at all.

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 

If it gets to the top of the list of wet winters it WILL be unprecedented in terms of wet winters

Because that's what the defintion of unprecedented is

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 

The definition of un-precedented is nothing similar having preceded it. The list shows several similarly wet winters occurring throughout the 150-odd years recorded.

If it gets to the top of the list by, say, 10 or 15 cm, then everyone would agree it's a record, but few people would feel they'd experienced something they'd never experienced before (a lousy, wet and windy UK winter with flooding on a very minor scale compared with e.g. 2007 in Yorkshire or 1919 or 1703 on the Somerset Levels).

If it gets to the top by 100 or 150 cm, then perhaps we'd see effects without precedent, because the next 12 days would have to have been, well, unprecedentedly horrendous. 

 

 

But so far we've seen nothing of that scale. Just weather consistent with the English climate and nothing inconsistent with the English climate.

Originally Posted by: lanky 

As we may well have already passed the winter rainfall record for Emgland and Wales and if that is the case it has been achieved in just over 2 months, (there was very little rain before mid December), then I think it would be hard to find a precedent for this in wintertime.

Originally Posted by: four 

But wet and windy is the default weather for England and Wales in winter. We haven't even experienced any intense deluges. Just steady rain.

When the historically and seasonally most common type of weather persists for a couple of months without interruption, that's surely about as "precedented" as you can get.

If you want to use the term "unprecedented" about this winter, you could describe it as one of unprecedented climatic stability, I suppose, with the complete absence of even a single day hinting at climatic change.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.

Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

KevBrads1
17 February 2014 06:03:57
Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

423.0 1914-15

420.9 1989-90

418.3 1876-77

415.8 2013-14 Up to 15th February

Wettest seasons on record for England and Wales: W for winter, S for summer, A for autumn

A 502.7 2000

A 455.8 1852

A 438.6 1960

A 424.1 1935

W 423.0 1914-15

W 420.9 1989-90

W 418.3 1876-77

W 415.8 2013-14 up to 15th February

Wettest February on record for England and Wales (mm)

158.6 1833

152.7 1923

143.6 1950

143.2 1990

143.2 1977

142.1 1937

132.0 1916

131.7 1900

130.0 1848

129.6 1966

129.1 1768

124.2 1925

123.5 1915

116.0 1918

115.3 1812

115.1 2002

114.9 1995

114.1 1851

114.0 1823

113.5 1776

112.1 1904

111.6 2007

109.1 1881

107.7 1883

107.4 1866

105.8 1974

105.4 1879

105.3 2001

104.9 1826

103.7 1813

103.5 1893

103.4 1910

102.6 1774

102.5 1935

101.6 1997

100.9 1941

100.7 1957

99.2 1775

98. 2014 up to 15th February

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Sevendust
17 February 2014 07:50:59

Away from the pedantry in this thread, its pretty clear that the weather this winter has been exceptional, especially in the south and west, and more notably in the synoptic detail that has occured over the last 2 months. Whilst I agree unprecedented over the history of earths climate is an unknown with regard to detail, I think its pretty obvious what people mean when they use such phrases, i.e. "in our lifetime"

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 February 2014 08:02:59

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales
423.0 1914-15
420.9 1989-90
418.3 1876-77
415.8 2013-14 Up to 15th February

Wettest seasons on record for England and Wales: W for winter, S for summer, A for autumn
A 502.7 2000
A 455.8 1852
A 438.6 1960
A 424.1 1935
W 423.0 1914-15
W 420.9 1989-90
W 418.3 1876-77
W 415.8 2013-14 up to 15th February

Wettest February on record for England and Wales (mm)
158.6 1833
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
...


98. 2014 up to 15th February

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Looking at http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html suggests a rather uneven distribution of rain for the coming week, but perhaps 20mm averaged over the country as a whole; and taking a proportion of the second week, another 20-25 mm. So wettest winter looks to be a cert; 3rd wettest February a decent shot; and probably 2nd wettest season.

I'd suspect that the previous records have had a higher proportion of their rainfall further north.

I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Twister
17 February 2014 12:01:02

Hi Kevin,

Just wanted to thank you for putting these stats up. It's really interesting so see this winter in context. 

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)

Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39

Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

Chiltern Blizzard
17 February 2014 12:57:14

Hi Kevin,

Just wanted to thank you for putting these stats up. It's really interesting so see this winter in context. 

Originally Posted by: Twister 

I echo that.  Thanks Kevin, much appreciated.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 February 2014 14:10:35

Wettest winter on record (back to 1910) in SE & Central S England already; 439.2mm to Feb 11, previous record 437.1mm in 1914-15.

MetO figures quoted in The Times

I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Hungry Tiger
17 February 2014 17:11:38

Hi Kevin,

Just wanted to thank you for putting these stats up. It's really interesting so see this winter in context. 

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

I echo that.  Thanks Kevin, much appreciated.

Originally Posted by: Twister 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



KevBrads1
18 February 2014 06:43:39

Hi Kevin,

Just wanted to thank you for putting these stats up. It's really interesting so see this winter in context.UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I echo that.Thanks Kevin, much appreciated.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

UserPostedImageUserPostedImageUserPostedImageUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Twister 

Thanks for your comments.

I rather not have to do it but the weather seems determined. Been doing it too often in recent years.

No change thanks to the largely dry day on Sunday.

Looks a slow rise this week compared to recent weeks.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

KevBrads1
19 February 2014 05:45:52
Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

423.0 1914-15

420.9 1989-90

419.8 2013-14 Up to 17th February

Wettest seasons on record for England and Wales: W for winter, S for summer, A for autumn

A 502.7 2000

A 455.8 1852

A 438.6 1960

A 424.1 1935

W 423.0 1914-15

W 420.9 1989-90

W 419.8 2013-14 up to 17th February

Wettest February on record for England and Wales (mm)

158.6 1833

152.7 1923

143.6 1950

143.2 1990

143.2 1977

142.1 1937

132.0 1916

131.7 1900

130.0 1848

129.6 1966

129.1 1768

124.2 1925

123.5 1915

116.0 1918

115.3 1812

115.1 2002

114.9 1995

114.1 1851

114.0 1823

113.5 1776

112.1 1904

111.6 2007

109.1 1881

107.7 1883

107.4 1866

105.8 1974

105.4 1879

105.3 2001

104.9 1826

103.7 1813

103.5 1893

103.4 1910

102.6 1774

102.5 1935

102. 2014 up to 17th

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Hungry Tiger
19 February 2014 10:34:29

Just 4mm to go now for the wettest winter on record.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



KevBrads1
20 February 2014 05:42:23
Wettest winters on record for England and Wales

423.0 1914-15

421.8 2013-14 Up to 18th February

Wettest seasons on record for England and Wales: W for winter, S for summer, A for autumn

A 502.7 2000

A 455.8 1852

A 438.6 1960

A 424.1 1935

W 423.0 1914-15

W 421.8 2013-14 up to 18th February

Wettest February on record for England and Wales (mm)

158.6 1833

152.7 1923

143.6 1950

143.2 1990

143.2 1977

142.1 1937

132.0 1916

131.7 1900

130.0 1848

129.6 1966

129.1 1768

124.2 1925

123.5 1915

116.0 1918

115.3 1812

115.1 2002

114.9 1995

114.1 1851

114.0 1823

113.5 1776

112.1 1904

111.6 2007

109.1 1881

107.7 1883

107.4 1866

105.8 1974

105.4 1879

105.3 2001

104.9 1826

104. 2014 up to 18th February

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

David M Porter
20 February 2014 09:43:15

This really has been a total nightmare of a "winter"; I feel so sorry for all those poor folk that have been hit by flooding at some point in the last couple of months. They must all be wondering when the hell is all this wet weather going to end.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Hungry Tiger
20 February 2014 14:28:37

Wettest winters on record for England and Wales
423.0 1914-15
421.8 2013-14 Up to 18th February

Wettest seasons on record for England and Wales: W for winter, S for summer, A for autumn
A 502.7 2000
A 455.8 1852
A 438.6 1960
A 424.1 1935
W 423.0 1914-15
W 421.8 2013-14 up to 18th February

Wettest February on record for England and Wales (mm)
158.6 1833
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
130.0 1848
129.6 1966
129.1 1768
124.2 1925
123.5 1915
116.0 1918
115.3 1812
115.1 2002
114.9 1995
114.1 1851
114.0 1823
113.5 1776
112.1 1904
111.6 2007
109.1 1881
107.7 1883
107.4 1866
105.8 1974
105.4 1879
105.3 2001
104.9 1826
104. 2014 up to 18th February

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Cheers Kevin - Not far to go now and also I note that we have passed the 100mm total for February which makes that a very wet month not surprisingly.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Mills
20 February 2014 17:21:51

Well, provisional rainfall statistics suggest it's been the wettest winter on record for the UK, and with 8 days to go, how much more rain is going to fall? 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/winter-so-far-20th-february-rainfall-update/

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