Good morning. Here is the latest production of the output of the NWP suite for the midnight outputs on Saturday February 9th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a very deep Low close to Northern Ireland drifting slowly north over Scotland through the next 24 hours before filling slowly on Monday. The weekend will be very windy with gales and severe gales with some disruption in exposure. There will be showers or spells of rain too, some heavy and thundery with hail, sleet and snow possible over the hills. The showers will die down along with the winds on Monday to give a quieter day overall with showers restricted to the West and North. On Tuesday a further Low pressure looks to be moving in on a slightly more Northerly trajectory keeping the very strongest winds towards the NW while all areas see another spell of rain followed by showers.
GFS then takes us into midweek with a nasty disturbance running East close to the South with heavy rain and possible local gales before the trend later in the week for continued unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather as Low pressure areas park to the NW of the UK with a broad SW flow across all areas. Then through next weekend winds are shown to veer NW with wintry showers for a time before something of a North/South split develops with the North seeing further rain at times as troughs cross East while the South sees a lot of dry and bright weather close to High pressure to the South giving some welcome relief to those flooded areas towards the SW.
The GFS Ensembles show a wet week to come before a reduction in rainfall amounts is shown as Low pressure migrates slowly North to allow longer dry periods between the bouts of rainy weather. Temperatures stay largely as they are with some members going for something rather milder in the South later.
UKMO this morning is very poor with Low pressure again shown to be poised close to the West and SW with another spell of gales and rain hitting the UK next Friday following an unsettled couple of days before with showers for most.
GEM remains unrelenting in the passage of Low pressures across the Atlantic and over the UK with rain and gales still featuring for all areas with heavy rain too at times giving rise to further flooding problems.
NAVGEM today keeps a deep Low pressure complex to the North of the UK with smaller disturbances running East in the Westerly flow, affecting mostly Southern areas with more prolonged rainfall between the frequent showers maintained elsewhere.
ECM too shows a very unsettled and potentially stormy end to next week as another powerful storm system crosses over on Friday. thereafter there is a slight suggestion that the position of the depressions will shift a couple of hundred miles further North but conditions at the surface will remain volatile with wind and rain featured highly though the heaviest rain and strongest winds may favour the NW rather than SW with time.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show that in 9 and 10 Days time the bias from the ECM ensemble group today is still an unsettled one for the UK but the bias shifts the core of Low pressure much more to the NW of the mainland with a more mobile pattern of rain followed by showers of the less disruptive kind looking more likely with the NW seeing the most rainfall by then but unfortunately still some for all.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Summary is for the flow to continue unabated for another week or so across the Atlantic then East over France and Spain. Through the second week the flow is shown to buckle north over the Atlantic finally breaking down the pattern that has afflicted Southern Britain for so long with something rather drier very possible then.
In Summary there is still a suggestion of a possible easing of conditions after next week mostly according to GFS and some of it's ensemble members as the Jet weakens and buckles North to the West. However, there seems little change to recent pattern from the likes of GEM, UKMO or NAVGEM in their end frames but ECM does show a slight shift North of the pattern towards the very end of it's run too. So another very wet and potentially stormy week to come before the trend towards the very worst of the weather to shift towards the North with time while the South sees something rather less extreme to a rather more traditional Atlantic Westerly is my prognosis this morning. Let us hope that High pressure can build North from Europe or the Azores to give much needed relief down here from recent events and hope that is not just a false dawn to be downgraded as it slips into the more reliable time frame.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset