Still definate signs of cyclosis in the long term on all the models, we have low latitude lows, sausage shaped lows, and eliptical shaped lows; quite different from circular occluded lows moving relentelessly NE. Also some signs of WAA in canada aswell.
I would be willing to do a friendly wager about a pattern change (i.e betting personal honour only :P) that a pattern change will be in evidence by mid month, and blocked (be it southern or northern) conditions be there by at the 20th at the absolute latest.
Following CFS model around the 18th, you're betting it won't revert back to westerlies and the same old grind? I won't bet but hope you're right for a change in pattern for once
Yeh indeed. Of course there is no guarantee I will be right, but I would go as far as to say there is a greater than 50% chance imo. Mostly my reasoning is this:
- Continued favourible conditions in the arctic, Neutral or negative AO and northern blocking been in place since Early january; no sign of letup.
- Signs of cyclosis in the atlantic, in particular the non- circular shaped lows; southerly tracks e.c.t.
- Stratospheric warming event in exactly the right place, admiatadely not propagating well, though evidence of a near vortex split even at 30hpa. Some weaker evidence of at least some propagation into the troposphere
- Evidence of WAA in Canada at times, not 552 isopleth to greenland admitadely, but certainly above average 850s becoming more prominent, and cold pools becoming less prominent.
- Natural singularities suggest blocked conditions end of february perhaps more likely than at any other time during winter
- Sea ice expansion in Canada and low SSTS (tripole evident) acting as a negative feedback to cyclogenesis from canada, something that should become more important than a cold airmass over canada as the sun gets stronger.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.