some interesting commentry on the other channel, notibly

"severe winter to come for Europe and the UK with a predominantly negative AO and NAO"

as ever who do you believe, we have CFS producing some "cracking" charts......Accu weather on mild winter cast.

For me until i see it on the met ofice extended outlook or wait till end of April - everything else with a pinch of salf and finger crossed for a cold one.

Think you've just about covered every type of post except ones about raw data & historical charts there, Kevin

[quote=KevBrads1;546251]Why does winter bring out the worst in everything on weather forums? Histrionics, panic merchants, doom merchants, tantrum throwing, toys out of the pram, shysters, so called experts, yarn spinners, trolling, wind up merchants, exaggeration, tabloid type sensationalism, childishness, complete denial of facts, wishful thinking, straw clutching, whinging, scriking, spit the dummy out...[/quote

you want to see the NCFC Forums :)

Hi all

Here's the Fifth Winter 13-14 Round-Up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking at solar activity, SST's, the hurricane season, etc...

Enjoy.

Good stuff Gav

Best I move to the States

Thank you Gavin - informative as always. Now where is my Green Card...

Looks like the odds are shifting towards a poor one for winter fans it seems

Thanks again Gavin, it's all to play for IMO. A Tripole does appear to devolping albeit rather slowly and with heights over the NW Pacific can only be a good thing for seeing the jet exit the eastern seaboard in a more favourable position for blighty. I maybe looking at those charts through rose coloured spectacles but I see the signs of a -NAO deveolping with a mid latitude block and southerly tracking jet for the latter part of November, with these heights extending into Greenland as December rolls on.

I for one think this month will end very differently to how it started and December will be dominated by northerly winds.

I think as per the previous 4 years my work will again lose a day or so due to bad weather ........................no such thing as " we are due one"

I agree - I think many people are hedging their bets and opting to be pessimistic so as not to be disappointed...!!

There are already several indicators of a change in weather mid-month, and I think it's feeling very Novembery already where I live, certainly not 'mild' like October... I have faith in a mid-Nov change which will continue developing through December!

It's quite possible, I would think, that if the winter weather starts later than other years (i.e. mid Dec instead of late Oct...) then the long-range pointers won't show up until later on in Nov... but they may be still to come!

I had previously questioned the effect of a quiet hurricane season on the following winter, and after seeing Gavs video today it got my interest going again.  I have taken the quietest hurricane seasons for each of the last decades and put below (from wikipedia).  A couple had quiet seasons back to back or near each other so have added them in too.  If some one was able to fill in the winter summary it be appreciated.  I also have the CETs for the following Jan and Feb, but cant seem to edit the table without it crashing so will post after to avoid having to start again.

 From what i can find the Average CET for Oct is 10.6, Nov 9, Jan+Feb 3.8 (Im unsure on this so if someone can confirm one way or another.  Based on the above, it is more likely than not, that this Jan Feb will be above average in terms of CET, but there is the outside chance that a small shift in pattern could lead to below average CETs such as 1947 and 1963.  However, you will see that 2010 was also below average.  This makes me lean further to the above average CETs for Jan and Feb.

Other "colder" winters were 1987, 1985, 1979, and 1942.  Their preceding hurricane seasons were as follows 4/0, 5/1, 5/2, 4/3  which were in the "quieter" end of their respective decades activity.

Hope its useful, it helped me pass an hour before the pub 

* Conclusion - This winter depends greatly on the position of HP (most do i suppose) 

Edit - CET data courtesy of Metoffice

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Thanks for the kind comments guys.

Gelnogle, that's great research. Thanks very much for doing that.

What long range pointers? Everything is pure speculation with no reliable method or model. There isn't a model out there that can accurately forecast beyond a couple of weeks, let alone months, and by accurate I mean even at all in any way. Any model that has previously recorded what has turned out to be a fairly accurate seasonal pattern has done so purely be virtue of the fact anyone or any method will be right occasional just by sheer law of averages. They will always be far outweighed by the times they are wrong.

Sorry, but it's a bit of a bugbear of mine when people try to paint as if there is some sort of method or reasoning that may be worth a look. You may have noticed? [sn_wink] nothing personal.

Hoping to see a forecast like this again this coming winter for this area.

What's concerning me about the forthcoming winter is that the improved winter conditions we've had over the past few years have largely been down to extensive and persistent blocking to our north. For most of the past several months, this blocking appears to have been far less prevalent.

We can of course see it switch back within a few weeks, but it's something that makes me think this winter, as it stands, doesn't seem as promising as the previous few.

One gets the feeling many are opting for the mild or very mild winter scenario on the basis we are 'due' one. It seems like many forecasters this time of year have put their eggs firmly in the same basket - one or 2 have gone mild and the rest follow.
I for one think this month will end very differently to how it started and December will be dominated by northerly winds.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

 

I agree - I think many people are hedging their bets and opting to be pessimistic so as not to be disappointed...!!

There are already several indicators of a change in weather mid-month, and I think it's feeling very Novembery already where I live, certainly not 'mild' like October... I have faith in a mid-Nov change which will continue developing through December!

It's quite possible, I would think, that if the winter weather starts later than other years (i.e. mid Dec instead of late Oct...) then the long-range pointers won't show up until later on in Nov... but they may be still to come!

Originally Posted by: Snowfan 

What long range pointers? Everything is pure speculation with no reliable method or model. There isn't a model out there that can accurately forecast beyond a couple of weeks, let alone months, and by accurate I mean even at all in any way. Any model that has previously recorded what has turned out to be a fairly accurate seasonal pattern has done so purely be virtue of the fact anyone or any method will be right occasional just by sheer law of averages. They will always be far outweighed by the times they are wrong.

Sorry, but it's a bit of a bugbear of mine when people try to paint as if there is some sort of method or reasoning that may be worth a look. You may have noticed? nothing personal.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I think we have all noticed your fondness for long-range forecasting, Matty!

I think the best you can get for long-range predictions are probability-based forecasts based on a few factors that seem to favour certain predominant weather types.   That suggests that we'll almost never see a clear cut forecast for a cold or very cold winter because that requires blocking in the right places and to get that for a sustained period is highly unusual.  So, the default is going to tend to be for average to mild conditions.

And this is not a forecast.......

I see the frequency of references to the CFS charts has dwindled lately.

I wonder, how is the 'increased number of blocked, cold patterns' predictions going?

Please don't take this as a snipe, but it proves that the only definitive forecast anyone who wishes to be taken seriously can make this far out is 'I just don't know'.
By the way, today's CFS is warm and toasty all the way through.

The monthly CFS charts show temperatures above average for December, 1-2C, then just below average for January and February.

The precipitation charts show a dry December, average January and for much of England and Wales a wetter than normal February.

Looking at the distribution of anomalies I guess that might indicate a "Bartlett-type" December with high pressure close by then perhaps a more southerly tracking jet from sometime in January into February.

December Temperature (2m) anomaly:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110306/cfs-8-12-2013.png?06 

February Temperature (2m) anomaly:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110306/cfs-8-2-2014.png?06 

February Precipitation anomaly:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110306/cfs-6-2-2014.png?06 

And as if proof were needed, the latest CFS update now has us in the freezer for Febuary

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110312/cfs-8-2-2014.png?12

IMHO, CFS is utter **** and I am now with Matty on this as these seasonal models are as much up and down as each GFS run.

I do think it is possible for the MetO to have a rough idea for 2-4 weeks ahead but confidence would always be quite low and as such, forecasts are quite broad and simplified. All the nonsense of specifics wrt timing and intensity etc are obviously ridiculous.