I would think it more likely to be based on the general US view that there will be a persistent SE ridge which traditionally sees the jet ride to the North, spawning cyclogenesis off the Seaboard, +PNA and that jet position to be then North of the UK with the associated downstream High pressure over Europe 

[quote=Nordic Snowman;546912]

IMHO, CFS is utter **** and I am now with Matty on this as these seasonal models are as much up and down as each GFS run.

I do think it is possible for the MetO to have a rough idea for 2-4 weeks ahead but confidence would always be quite low and as such, forecasts are quite broad and simplified. All the nonsense of specifics wrt timing and intensity etc are obviously ridiculous.

[/quooul;d

Point very well made.  Its going to be a very, very long winter. Roll on April.

A SE ridge pattern is a negative PNA ...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archivesnh-2013-3-11-12-0.png

S

Yes the models aren't doing themselves any favours this year!  I've seen about 5 seasonal models - and if you looked at the global picture, each model is predicting different outcomes. One of them might be right of course - but take your pick.

Right now, I'm clueless to how this winter is going to go - but I'll have a guess based on the following:

1.) we have the atlantic sea temps looking fairly favourable for blocking

2.) The arctic looks to favour a positive AO until at least Feb.  

3.) We have a solar max and a West QBO - normally a decent combination - for the second half of the winter (i.e. decent chance of strat warming) - but will the solar max be strong enough?

4.) Enso neutral forecast

5.) Good start to snowcover by late Sept, but the Oct growth wasn't huge. On the plus side, some southerly latitude snow though already by early Oct.

6.) Ozone levels (last time I checked) looked very healthy over the Arctic.

a drier than average winter - average temps initially and not much snowfall.  Late Jan/Feb - possibly much colder with an attack from the East.  Perhaps a winter similar to 1990/91 (although doubtful we'll get an Easterly on quite that scale this winter).

The latest CFS run produces:

• December - high pressure over the continent, very mild (anomalies +2 to +4). Dry for the far south, wet for the north
• January - high pressure retreats south and the Atlantic dominates, with low pressure from Iceland to north of Scandinavia, temperatures average to slightly mild. Wet to very wet for most.
• February - southerly jet with high pressure over Greenland and a trough extending east into Britain - temperatures near normal. Driest to the west, average to slightly wetter than normal as you move east.  Again that's indicative of an easterly flow at times.

So, quite a marked transition from high pressure, almost 'Bartlett' conditions in December, with the high progressively pulling away through January and replaced by increased northern blocking and a more southerly jet by February.

The charts show that the whole of Europe is mild or very mild through December and January, with the core of the positive anomalies sinking south in January.

That's the 06z run from yesterday, the latest available.

After all this rain I bet we get a dry winter but a very cold one once it starts.....be just our luck

KEEP CALM and WAIT for WINTER

You see this is the problem with November. Everyone gets all het up about Halloween and Bonfire night, then there nothing to occupy us until December... Its a boredom problem. LRF as basically unsound beyond at best 2-3 weeks. We know this. We can get indications of pattern changes that firm up the closer we get to the event, but February weather predicted in November? Really? How many saw Dec 2010 coming in August?

How many saw December 2010 coming in early November?

This was the synoptic chart on 11th November...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-11-12-0.png 

10 days later, this:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-21-12-0.png 

So, anything is possible - but such dramatic shifts are much rarer.

Statistically with a west based QBO and Solar Max, the chances of a strat warming event in late Jan/Feb are quite high. That doesn't mean it will happen - but it's perfectly valid to discuss it as a possible scenario. What's the point of this thread if you can't discuss things like that?!

Dr. Karin Labitzke's research showed a warming had not been seen in wQBO years where SSN is below 90.

First, it is a small sample size (50+ years or 5 cycles) in the grand scheme of things and we don't know the precise physics at work or how all the other processes interact. Science suggests the outlook is poor for cold but the weather may have another agenda.

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/ 

IRI carries forecasts with probabilities.

Temperature

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ 

Odds on milder than usual for much of Europe. 50% chance of mild conditions, 85% mild to average over Greenland/Iceland - which seems to imply some northern blocking on offer?

Precipitation

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ 

Average

I like our U.K. Winters for the simple fact that we never really know what we are gonna get till we get it. When we do get something out of the ordinary we appreciate it and perhaps also be a touch greedy the following year, that's what makes places like this so great throughout all seasons.

It would be fairly boring if we knew what the outcome was going to be for Winter.

I love the fact that we may have an idea what the weather may be like at the end of this Month for example but we can never be certain, our weather can change at the drop of a hat, we have seen this before and we will see it again.

...Anyone that rules out Winter or a whole Month before it's even started is a very brave forecaster, or an even money gambler

You're biased on account of the fact that yo uget more than your fair share of snow when there's any about LOL
(IMBYS - In My Back Yard Shed: In the same vein as IMBY but more specific )

May be, I do like to be ruled out of stuff only to hear whispers from Gusty about Kent's microclimate throwing up something that most forecasters fail to spot

To be fair I do miss out on most the storms during Summer, that doesn't mean I don't enjoy our U.K Summers  

That's a fair point. I came across the following the other day relating to the stratospheric warmings and the QBO phases: 

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/

"Looking back at years since 1953, with a +QBO state and a monthly mean JAN SSN over 95 we notice that 6 out of 12 cases have a major SSW event in feb. Another 4 years have an SSW in JAN with only 2 in december. Whats important to note is that all the years with major december warmings had +PDO states and half the jan warming's had +PDO states as well. Also important is that no +QBO/smax years have ever not seen a major SSW event, which is pretty striking.

Looking back at all years since '53 with a +QBO and low to moderate solar(JAN SSN below 95)

We learn that 14 out of 25 cases have no major SSW events all winter.... with just 3 out of 25 years having a SSW in DEC or Jan. These 3 years all had +PDO's. Another 6 out of 25 years in the data set had SSW in March or April, with no real PDO trends. There were also 2 years that had major Feb warmings."

Below is another good paper to read - which has some data relating to the Arctic Oscillation and how it typically varies in relation to the QBO phase and solar activity. We really need the sun to be as active as possible given the QBO phase we're in this winter (for a better chance of cold that is). We are seeing a spike upwards in solar acitvity again right now suggesting another peak in the current solar max (see solarham.net) 

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyorkslincs/ahlbeck_solar_activity.pdf

The process is explained here, if you've got the time and interest.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/tutorial2/index.html#process 

I found it quite interesting, although I only skimmed over some of it.

That sounds interesting.  I'll try to find the time to read through it.

One thing puzzles me and that is that there is evidence that a quiet sun promotes northern blocking and yet you are describing here a solar max being a good indicator of a SSW, which in turn promotes northern blocking.

I wonder how these two fit together - or am I missing something?

The one year I noted was 1985/1986 - wQBO very weak solar ie. SSN averaged for January of 3. The monthly classification of C denotes a cold strat, yet the UK had a very cold February.

http://imgur.com/n37jLa2 

Cheers to Beng and Gandalf - this is the kind of stuff we should look to - evidence. It is interesting as I have heard it said that a sluggish sun in recent times has been a possible reason for colder UK winters with the jet displaced south. Does that happen more with a -QBO? What is for certain is that its incredibly complex. Someone else said on the model thread - it's reassuringly November weather at the moment, milder in the south with cyclones passing oevr with some regularity and colder to the north with occasional snow to higher ground. All good stuff.

My thinking is that according to the research, it's down to the QBO phase as much as anything. In the East phase - low solar strongly promotes a negative AO.  In the West phase QBO, high solar promotes a weak negative AO (possibly down to the SSW events that sometimes occur - i.e. the stats only show it promoting a weak negative AO as the SSW can't be guaranteed).

Yep agreed.