Indeed:

12th Nov 2010

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101112.gif

10 days later

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101122.gif

That was an amazing flip!

Just been looking in bit more detail at the robustness of the link between QBO and the NAO( North Atlantic Oscillation.)

There are 65 years of QBO records .In this time if we look at the average QBO index for the three months Dec,Jan,Feb thee were   40 Negative and 25 postive years.

In the 40 -ve QBO winters, 58% were NAO -ve.In the 25+ve QBO winters ,60% were NAO+ve.Hardly strongly significant.

However mabe METO is concentrating on the history of more recent years.If we take the last 20 years, 15 of those years (75%) had the sane NAO sign  as the QBO index.No difference  in strength of link between QBO -ve and QBO +ve winters

 Nevetheless one feels that the QBO is but one of a number of factors.

Very much looking mild in the early part of winter.  My reasons for agreeing are

1. Roaring jet (wont flip soon IMHO)

2. The feel of the weather.

3.  In my view, the British weather seems prone in recent years to getting stuck in a rut for months on end.  We are currently in a mobile phase which I can see lasting beyond Xmas with only minimal interruptions by anticyclones and ridges. 

4. I partially accept the ultimate randonmess of the weather and I appreciate the "need" people (including myself) have to almost impose some kind or order or pattern onto what some may see as pure randomness.  Therefore I cannot claim and great confidence nor veracity in these thoughts.

5. Despite the above I now have winter tyres on and await the dark months with the usual mix of excitement and trepidation.

Finally, I wish more than everything for an early spring in March and NO REPEAT of this year's cold spring horror. 

Just goes to show how things change in a short amount of time

Surely 20 years won't give a fair average

Matty,

I dont say this every year.

In November 2009 I was on record predicting a cold winter in 2009/10 while the MetO predicted a mild one, it was very cold

In Autumn 2010 I thought the coming winter would be 'mixed'

In 2011 I said winter 2011/12 would be mild.....it was.

Last year I was open minded and it turned out cold.

Not a perfect record but better than some

If you read the MetO briefing properly you will see the reason they give for the 3 month 'mild' forecast and it relates to very high SST in the North Atlantic which last time I looked was upwind of the UK.

Seems sensible enough to me.

I will remind you of my forecast in January when Uncle Barty is sat over Bristol for the second consecutive month

Andy

Obviously this is making the Atlantic a lot more "fiery" than in recent years, and why the roaring jet is pushing through system after system of wet and windy weather.

I agree with you that this is going to prove very stubborn to shift.

However, I know Matty would love to have Uncle Barty sitting over Bristol for two months as he hates the cold as much as I do...

If we can get a nice Bartlett or Euro High in position for most of the winter, it won't drag on as long as it did last year.

Bring it on!!

2009 wasn't the MetO's best year for seasonal forecasts was it? First the infamous summer forecast with the "BBQ summer" headline, and then the winter that was supposed to be milder but then turned out to be the coldest in around 30 years.

I presume you mean the childish TWO name for a euro high? That would be a dream come true for me as I hate cold weather. Where have you been the last 10 years?

Oh, and your "winter is over" posts are legendary. Fact. 😉

Good call by the MetO IMO and I think any cold weather will be confined to the late Winter period when the westerlies blow themselves out. Till then its a grim prospect with much wind and rain. Oh dear Andy

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

The standard, annual Woodcock 'winter is over' post in October 🙄 Good call, why? You think, why? You have no idea, and neither do the experts. That's not to say I don't hope you're right, but you do this every single year. [sn_sleep]

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Matty, I dont say this every year. In November 2009 I was on record predicting a cold winter in 2009/10 while the MetO predicted a mild one, it was very cold In Autumn 2010 I thought the coming winter would be 'mixed' In 2011 I said winter 2011/12 would be mild.....it was. Last year I was open minded and it turned out cold. Not a perfect record but better than some If you read the MetO briefing properly you will see the reason they give for the 3 month 'mild' forecast and it relates to very high SST in the North Atlantic which last time I looked was upwind of the UK. Seems sensible enough to me. I will remind you of my forecast in January when Uncle Barty is sat over Bristol for the second consecutive month Andy

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I presume you mean the childish TWO name for a euro high? That would be a dream come true for me as I hate cold weather. Where have you been the last 10 years? Oh, and your "winter is over" posts are legendary. Fact. 😉

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Have to agree with Matty, Andy.

For starters, remember how you said, in the face of poor model output for cold lovers in early February 2005 that "winter was over"? And how in the space of the following 7-10 days or so the models did a complete volte-face?

Oh dear, not the misuse of the term 'Bartlett High' again..... It's not a euro high, it refers to a synoptic pattern where successive high pressure cells move west to east across the Atlantic, into France and settling over the continent before being replaced by the next cell. The jet fires away to the north cutting out any build of heights to the north.

We're probably overdue a winter like that. At least the heating bills will be lower...

Being nearly age 61 the idea of a long severe Winter doesn't really fill me with great joy any more, I love seeing snow first fall and settle but when it sticks around and goes slippery and solid like concrete that's when the fun ends for me, living in a big house doesn't help with bills either in the coldest of Winters. But I like living here for other reasons.

Still if we get at least some snow this Winter then I will be happy, last Winter was good for the regular measurable snowfalls here but the cold dragged on way too long, we didn't take the Winter duvet off the bed until May. Prolonged periods of rain and wind are a not my cup of tea either.

At the moment I'm keeping an eye on the stability of the Polar Vortex.

Of late, model runs have been suggesting that it will become somewhat disrupted as higher heights attempt to take over at least part of the Arctic. It looks to be a rough transition with some false starts, but from small acorns do mighty oaks grow!

In the earlier part of Nov 2010 there were signs of the PV coming under attack. While initially tenuous, they soon escalated into what was a truly epic period of high-latitude blocking and cold, snowy winter weather for the UK!

Current signals suggest that such an event will be harder to achieve this time around, at least not as early on as in 2010, but that doesn't rule out sudden developments in the stratosphere, for example... so it's still possible.

Recent CFS output has trended towards the troughs - therefore the jet - tracking further south in December, with increasing signs of blocking at the higher latitudes:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

The projections for Jan and Feb then see that setup developing further and further, with the result in February pretty spectacular:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd4.gif

That's about as extreme an anomaly as I've seen since those for March 2013. Unfortunately, with CFS having shown something similar for January not too long ago, this one is not being predicted with quite the same level of stability... even so, it's something to keep an eye on IMO. Hopefully it won't get pushed back any further, as for me one March 2013 is enough for this side of 2050

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-1320.png?12

JFF JFF JFF JFF

That will do for Xmas

Good call by the MetO IMO and I think any cold weather will be confined to the late Winter period when the westerlies blow themselves out. Till then its a grim prospect with much wind and rain. Oh dear Andy

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

The standard, annual Woodcock 'winter is over' post in October Good call, why? You think, why? You have no idea, and neither do the experts. That's not to say I don't hope you're right, but you do this every single year.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Matty,
I dont say this every year.
In November 2009 I was on record predicting a cold winter in 2009/10 while the MetO predicted a mild one, it was very cold
In Autumn 2010 I thought the coming winter would be 'mixed'
In 2011 I said winter 2011/12 would be mild.....it was.
Last year I was open minded and it turned out cold.
Not a perfect record but better than some
If you read the MetO briefing properly you will see the reason they give for the 3 month 'mild' forecast and it relates to very high SST in the North Atlantic which last time I looked was upwind of the UK.
Seems sensible enough to me.
I will remind you of my forecast in January when Uncle Barty is sat over Bristol for the second consecutive month
Andy

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I presume you mean the childish TWO name for a euro high? That would be a dream come true for me as I hate cold weather. Where have you been the last 10 years?

Oh, and your "winter is over" posts are legendary. Fact.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

I agree, I will never live down my WIO post in February 2005 but I have never issued one in October!

However, this coming winter may never really get going if those Atlantic SST's dont cool down

Andy

Andy, I'm not following your assertions over N Atlantic SSTs. There is actually a tripole signature emerging- warm-cold-warm banding; with the warm band around Greenland, cold band mid Atlantic in a strip S of UK then a further warm band.

Very similar to the same point in 2009. The Atlantic, at least, is becoming poised for a -NAO.

Here is a quote:

'The Atlantic Tripole can be thought of simply as a pool of anomalously warm water over the tropics, anomalously cool water over the mid latitudes, and anomalously warm water over the upper/polar latitudes. When the Atlantic Tripole signature is present, there is relatively less rising air over the mid latitudes, allowing rising motion to really take off over the deep tropics (remember air can’t rise everywhere). As a result, It is said that when the tripole is present it allows upward motion to strongly focus over the deep tropics, rather than be spread out over the entire basin, allowing for increased tropical activity…as opposed to having the entire basin anomalously warm.
For a good example of what the Atlantic tripole is, 2010 had a strong tripole thanks to the abnormally strong troughing over the East Coast and West Atlantic, and a strong negative NAO creating warm waters over the tropics and cool waters over the mid latitudes.'

Which can be found here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TomTaylor/comment.html?entrynum=10 

Just for some perspective relative to the season.  The ensembles are currently around the long term average.  Today there is thick snow on the mountain tops (probably only as low as 8/900m), although is expected to lower to around 500m tomorrow/Sun.

Even if we have an "average to mild winter" we will still get snow and cold etc.

This link shows the gritting treatments on the Trunk Roads of Scotland that are due to take place tonight.  

http://trafficscotland.co.uk/wintertreatment/  There is an error in the figures i think, as there are not 94 Gritters out (at least i dont think there are)  

 LLTNP 105m asl 

A repeat of Nov/Dec 2010 would be amazingly brilliant.

And unlikely...............................................................sadly

Of course - but Christmas is a time for miracles 

I'd be more than happy with a re-run of Dec 2009