If there is a connection between the sun's changing UV output affecting the Azores high and jetstream then the warming phase of this connection is on its way out and a cooling phase is in the process of taking over.

The warming phase caused the jetstream to often zip over the north of Scandanavia and delay in autumn the onset of snow-cover and in spring speed up the melting of snow in the NW part of Eurasia. This would mean that the weather becomes, in times of the warming phase less continental.

The cooling phase lengthens the winter season and compresses autumn and spring - which means imo, that the transition from autumn to winter happens over a shorter time period, as also in winter to spring.

So......... the tele connections which have been observed over the last several decades aren't necessarily now useful. Its a different ball game imo. Maybe some same tele connections - but over a shorter timespan?

I found this young mans site an interesting read, not sure if any of you have seen it or wether the fella is infact a TWO member but alot of interesting stuff.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter/

Also talks about Solar Activity http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/tag/solar-activity/

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-1680.png?18

JFF  JFF  JFFF

Something seasonal for Xmas day

Charts like these have been rare on CFS the last few weeks

Yay Good old Kasim, been reading his blog for a while... http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uknovember2013coldlaternwsesplitearlyon/ 

He added me on Facebook a while back. I don't know how he found me, other than through here, or maybe a mutual friend from here. Admittedly I haven't read any of his sites of blogs as I have zero interest in LRFs. They're just an opinion, not anything more concrete or reliable. Just had a quick peak now and respect to him for the effort he clearly puts in.

Here's the final winter 13/14 forecast from Roger J Smith;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

Remember, it's just a forecast.

"in fact Christmas Day is indicated as having the best chance of all dates this winter to set a record high temperature which would be 14 to 17 C in most regions".

Oh.....

Yeah its just a forecast after all.

Agreed, however from memory even in December 2010 Xmas day down here  was relatively mild with a 'balmy' (by Dec 2010 standards) 7 or 8c if I remember correctly, so chances are to call a mild Christmas day based on the last 30 years will more often than not be correct.  There are exceptions obviously but for an LRF that's probably a 60- 70% chance of being correct especially for the South.

I admire anyone who goes to the trouble of creating an LRF, but I find it hard to take too seriously the long range models as even last week the forecast for the following day from the night before proved wide of the mark. If they can't even get 24 hours correct all of the time what chance do they have with the LRF models?  

CFS is a good example - always showing cold 6 months away and then as the time approaches it changes to milder conditions. Good luck with all the LRF's but hard to take them too seriously but interesting someone's comment the other day about quiet hurricane seasons and the cold PDO relationship. Last time that happened was 2010, all speculation of course and JFF but it could tip things our way for at least one severe spell of the winter. 

Late November is what I am watching for - it's then that you get an idea if the wet and windy express is nailed on for another month or if the pattern is about to change.

By chance are you friends with Gav on Twitter or Facebook?  He added me after i followed Gav.  He was told not to follow me and duely obliged.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Was he talking about the UK or America , very dangerous game mentioning dates and temps in the same breath.

Isn't he Canada based ?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1668.png?06

JFF  JFF  JFF

Chilly for Xmas Day

The coldest days of the winter are indicated to be around 10-14 January which in context of an otherwise rather mild winter brings up an analogue with Jan 1987. It may then turn out to be a case of a bland winter with one very notable cold spell which will bring a certain person in from the ledge anyway

Would anyone complain if we have another 87 style winter?

87.........................oh go on then that was a belter

Yeah. that was me. It came about from looking at specifically US hurricane records a propos something else. 1946, 1962 and 2010 suddenly stood out for me. 2009 wasn't too shabby either, and that saw zero US hurricanes.

Here's the list, if anyone else with better knowledge than me of UK winters fancies playing with it.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

The negative PDO phases  before the current one were 1945/6-1976/7 and ??-1924/5.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Gav also mentioned in his video that a quiet hurricane season can sometimes mean a colder winter .

No guarantee of course

Being very hard of hearing, I can't follow Gav's output these days. Really miss it. Wish his webcam would break down just once or twice, so he'd have to resume typing out his thoughts here.

Yes, me!

The rubbishness of the weather here (it was bone dry) was amplified by seeing news stories of deep snow in the SE.

I remember being out on site trying to put a spade in the ground lol............................no effing chance

He's not going to get himself into the Daily Express, but a realistic summary. Looking at the indicators so far, I dont have high hopes for this winter either

I view any forecast (a warm or cold), for specific dates weeks in advance with a very high level of skepticism. They tend to fall into the categories of guesswork and/or attention seeking IMO.

Me too - usually.  He appears to be working on a formula of solar/planetary conjunctions for his forecasting, maybe explains why fixed dates appear in his thoughts. Perhaps Gavin can ask for some clarification from Roger to be added to his blog.

Hi sorry to hear your missing out.

I still do the week ahead written forecast, which you can read here;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

And I have a blog, which you should keep an eye on, because they;ll be interesting tid-bits appearing there quite frequently;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

Aha! Thanks, Wasn't aware of that. Now bookmarked.

Good.

And don't forget Terry Scholey and Roger J Smith's pages are both written;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

So although it's a video website, as I've built it up I have added more and more written content.

Sorry mods, back on topic - The latest CFS anomalies are pretty interesting;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&carte=0&mode=4&run=10&archive=0]

JFF