Hi all,

Here's the second Winter 13/14 Round-Up video - Looking at solar activity, Siberian snow cover, SST's, etc...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Enjoy.

That Beijing climate model for winter is shocking!

Great video from Gavin yet again, what are the stats regarding the Beijing winter forecasts from this time of year proving correct? Seems a bit early to be calling a very mild one for our part of the world - if the Siberian snow cover persists and continues to grow, I wonder what effect that will have down the line?

It's one of the better models, but it's not always correct and last winter it's performance was patchy.

*IF* snow cover continues to pile up over Siberia during October I would rate that a very significant.

Hi all,

Here's the second Winter 13/14 Round-Up video - Looking at solar activity, Siberian snow cover, SST's, etc...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Enjoy.

That Beijing climate model for winter is shocking!

Great video from Gavin yet again, what are the stats regarding the Beijing winter forecasts from this time of year proving correct? Seems a bit early to be calling a very mild one for our part of the world - if the Siberian snow cover persists and continues to grow, I wonder what effect that will have down the line?

It's one of the better models, but it's not always correct and last winter it's performance was patchy.

*IF* snow cover continues to pile up over Siberia during October I would rate that a very significant.

I kept an eye on it last summer, when it predicted a stunner, and last winter, when it seemed to predict blocked patterns at the wrong times, and then again for summer 2013, when it predicted +ve height anomalies to the NW of the UK, which turned out to be well wide of the mark.

That's all provided I'm recalling things correctly, of course. Gavin might have a more accurate record...?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-1542.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

December starts of a chilly note

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-2-2106.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

Xmas Day sees us in cold air

Hi all,

Here's the second Winter 13/14 Round-Up video - Looking at solar activity, Siberian snow cover, SST's, etc...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Enjoy.

That Beijing climate model for winter is shocking!

Great video from Gavin yet again, what are the stats regarding the Beijing winter forecasts from this time of year proving correct? Seems a bit early to be calling a very mild one for our part of the world - if the Siberian snow cover persists and continues to grow, I wonder what effect that will have down the line?

It's one of the better models, but it's not always correct and last winter it's performance was patchy.

*IF* snow cover continues to pile up over Siberia during October I would rate that a very significant.

I kept an eye on it last summer, when it predicted a stunner, and last winter, when it seemed to predict blocked patterns at the wrong times, and then again for summer 2013, when it predicted +ve height anomalies to the NW of the UK, which turned out to be well wide of the mark.

That's all provided I'm recalling things correctly, of course. Gavin might have a more accurate record...?

Yes, it's not has a particularly good run since summer 2012.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1980.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

A cold plunge in the run up to Xmas

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-2106.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

Followed by an Easterly

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfsnh-0-2430.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

A welcome set up for early Januaary

Simon Ks take on December (courtesy WX online)

*December*
There is much discrepancy between forecast models at this time.
However, we currently lean into the idea of December being unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds at times.
There is evidence merging of the westerly flow across the Atlantic being stronger than normal, leading to an enhanced jet stream.
This would lead to more precipitation than usual, perhaps 150 to 180% of normal rainfall.
Temperatures would likely be around normal, and there is the risk of some snow at times, especially through Ireland and Scotland, as well as northern England

If it's cold and snowy weather you're after, this is great news

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

CFS hasn't shown much in the way of prolonged cold for a while, infact somewhat disappointing JFF of course

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

What about Gavin P style?

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

What about Gavin P style?

Fronts coming in from the SW, snow showers piling in from the east etc.

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positivetemperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses ofthe coolingsceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'
Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'
Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'
Dec 2013 Matty H style:'Bollox to thecold and the snow can f*** right off'

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positivetemperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses ofthe coolingsceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'
Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'
Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'
Dec 2013 Matty H style:'Bollox to thecold and the snow can f*** right off'

All a bit quiet on the CFS anomaly front recently?

The truth is the last few runs have shown positive to very positive temperature anomalies for Jan and Feb but that's to be expected, is it not?
I have my own tried and trusted method of predicting seasons. Wait for the seasons and look out the window. Works every time.
This however must not in any way detract anyone from having a go at long-term forecasts and in honour of that work here's my own winter effort, using a range of techniques currently employed by some well-known personalities:

Dec 2013 Pears C style: 'Solar activity and lunar influences combine to bring a three-day snowstorm that will PARALYSE Britain and likely bring down the Government. David Icke and Mother Teresa both agree'

Dec 2013 Joe B style: 'No two protagonists in the warming debate can agree but there is little doubt that December will be brutally cold in the means with deep snow covering the houses of the cooling sceptics in Geneva and Paris, now see if it doesn't. Hasta La Vista'

Dec 2013 Brian G style: 'Little agreement at this time but the Santa-Swinga-nometer suggests a 3% risk above normal for snow in the Northwest so the Polar Bears are ready to roll. See Buzz every three months for updates'

Dec 2013 Richard in Aberdeen style: 'The winter will suck big time. We only had three days of frost last year and I don't see anything improving this time. It's rubbish and i don't know why I bother'

Dec 2013 Matty H style: 'Bollox to the cold and the snow can f*** right off'

 

CFS hasn't shown much in the way of prolonged cold for a while, infact somewhat disappointing JFF of course

CFS not bad this morning - showing below average for JAN - APR , will change on the next run so JFF

What's happened to this thread? The last 2 pages have been purely banter...,

Really??

Links as well as forcasts have been posted

Even at 3 in the morning (don't ask) I can see that the opinionated posts aren't what this thread needs any more of; please stick to prospects and forecasts for the most part, thanks

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1134.png?06

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A northerly outbreak in November

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-1590.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

Followed by one early in December

I can understand that some people don't like cold weather for various reasons but I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter. They are so unbelievably boring! At least in summer with mild weather you can get scorching heat and thunderstorms but in winter its just boring nothingness.

I can understand that some people don't like cold weather for various reasons but I can't understand how any weather "enthusiast" can want a mild winter. They are so unbelievably boring! At least in summer with mild weather you can get scorching heat and thunderstorms but in winter its just boring nothingness.

Agreed