http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1/cfsnh-2-1884.png?00

JFF JFF JFF

You would take that for Xmas day

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1/cfsnh-2-1884.png?00

JFF JFF JFF

You would take that for Xmas day

That's certainly an impressive run! 

A few more like that would be welcome, others thus far have been nowhere near as strong. Perhaps CFS has stopped backing off now.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1/cfsnh-2-1884.png?00

JFF JFF JFF

You would take that for Xmas day

That's certainly an impressive run! 

A few more like that would be welcome, others thus far have been nowhere near as strong. Perhaps CFS has stopped backing off now.

Is that just anomaly or overall temp?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1/cfsnh-2-1884.png?00

JFF JFF JFF

You would take that for Xmas day

That's certainly an impressive run! 

A few more like that would be welcome, others thus far have been nowhere near as strong. Perhaps CFS has stopped backing off now.

 

Is that just anomaly or overall temp?

That is projected 850HPa temp at 12Z Xmas Day.
Typically those values would imply a surface temp of around freezing.

I'm not one to get engaged in this crystal ball stuff at this range, but that disrupting trough from the southwest would likely see many areas snowbound by Boxing Day.
There, that's as much of a ramp as you'll get from me until late November.

I'm not one for

 

I'm not one for

Finishing sentences?

Sat through a less-than-clear explanation of thickness values today. I felt like directing everyone to TWO

The summary that I've extracted from a somewhat chaotic presentation goes as follows:

The thickness is the height difference in decameters between the levels of 1000mb and 500mb pressure. Warm air has higher thickness values because it is less dense - pressure decreases less rapidly with height as there isn't as much air being lost for every unit of altitude gained. Hence it takes a greater altitude to reach the 500mb level.

Bringing this towards an on-topic post, 528 is the magic thickness line that often represents air cold enough at the surface for snow to fall, so to any newcomers that's the one to keep an eye on - look for the dotted lines on the FAX charts as they are the thickness isotherms

I hope I've got that right, otherwise I've wasted 2 hours of lecture time

p.s. what happened to post formatting? Default text for all at the moment

 

I'm not one for

Finishing sentences?

Sat through a less-than-clear explanation of thickness values today. I felt like directing everyone to TWO

The summary that I've extracted from a somewhat chaotic presentation goes as follows:

The thickness is the height difference in decameters between the levels of 1000mb and 500mb pressure. Warm air has higher thickness values because it is less dense - pressure decreases less rapidly with height as there isn't as much air being lost for every unit of altitude gained. Hence it takes a greater altitude to reach the 500mb level.

Bringing this towards an on-topic post, 528 is the magic thickness line that often represents air cold enough at the surface for snow to fall, so to any newcomers that's the one to keep an eye on - look for the dotted lines on the FAX charts as they are the thickness isotherms

I hope I've got that right, otherwise I've wasted 2 hours of lecture time

p.s. what happened to post formatting? Default text for all at the moment

Stumbled across this "met office" prediction today.  Not sure where it has been lifed from, but may be a direct quote from Transport Scotland's Meto Rep.

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051

Meto forecasting blocked december and being colder than average.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Stumbled across this "met office" prediction today.  Not sure where it has been lifed from, but may be a direct quote from Transport Scotland's Meto Rep.

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051

 

Meto forecasting blocked december and being colder than average.

Judging by the way the Met Office now seems determined to restrict the contents of its seasonal forecasts to a select few, I reckon Dale Miller should avoid long walks and check under his car regularly.

It's certainly been obvious from the past few update's of the Met Office seasonal model that their model is very mcuh "seeing" a lot of northern blocking this winter.

Stumbled across this "met office" prediction today. Not sure where it has been lifed from, but may be a direct quote from Transport Scotland's Meto Rep.
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051 

Meto forecasting blocked december and being colder than average.

Judging by the way the Met Office now seems determined to restrict the contents of its seasonal forecasts to a select few, I reckon Dale Miller should avoid long walks and check under his car regularly.

Stumbled across this "met office" prediction today. Not sure where it has been lifed from, but may be a direct quote from Transport Scotland's Meto Rep. http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051  Meto forecasting blocked december and being colder than average.

Judging by the way the Met Office now seems determined to restrict the contents of its seasonal forecasts to a select few, I reckon Dale Miller should avoid long walks and check under his car regularly.

Yeah it outrageous. They've only gone and restricted it those people with access to the internet. The swine. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners[/quote]

In summary, and in probability speak, it says what many of us say at this range.
In other words, no one has a scooby LOL.

---

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

I've done a blog post on Winter 13/14 Expctations;

Is This The Most Anticipated Winter Ever?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

I've done a blog post on Winter 13/14 Expctations;

Is This The Most Anticipated Winter Ever?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

 

Cheers Gav

Stumbled across this "met office" prediction today. Not sure where it has been lifed from, but may be a direct quote from Transport Scotland's Meto Rep.
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051

Meto forecasting blocked december and being colder than average.

Judging by the way the Met Office now seems determined to restrict the contents of its seasonal forecasts to a select few, I reckon Dale Miller should avoid long walks and check under his car regularly.

Yeah it outrageous. They've only gone and restricted it those people with access to the internet. The swine.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

Stumbled across this "met office" prediction today. Not sure where it has been lifed from, but may be a direct quote from Transport Scotland's Meto Rep.
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051

Meto forecasting blocked december and being colder than average.

Judging by the way the Met Office now seems determined to restrict the contents of its seasonal forecasts to a select few, I reckon Dale Miller should avoid long walks and check under his car regularly.

Yeah it outrageous. They've only gone and restricted it those people with access to the internet. The swine.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

Thanks, Steam Fog. It's a big site the MetOffice have. Can't say I'm a regular on the Products and services -> Public Sector area of it.

I wonder whether that's the place they hid their forecast in 2010/11?

The page i linked to has either been updated or i misread it.  I am sure it has been updated.  It now reads as below. (It is the underlined bit i think has changed)  Who the hell is UK Weather Forecast???

Forecasters give shovels warning

FORECASTERS have warned Scots to have their shovels at the ready this winter.

UK Weather Forecast has predicted a pattern of high pressure from December.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Anyone seen maddens forecast...

LOL. The most fantastic ever snow forecast for the UK written by the least credible person on the internet. second only to Melanie.

My parents had a man from British Gas come to check their gas heating today, and they were told by him that the winter is expected to be very cold... so I guess the people at the top have been warned.... 

My parents had a man from British Gas come to check their gas heating today, and they were told by him that the winter is expected to be very cold... so I guess the people at the top have been warned.... 

That is beacuse he lives next door to YD

Stumbled across this "met office" prediction today. Not sure where it has been lifed from, but may be a direct quote from Transport Scotland's Meto Rep. http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051 Meto forecasting blocked december and being colder than average.

Judging by the way the Met Office now seems determined to restrict the contents of its seasonal forecasts to a select few, I reckon Dale Miller should avoid long walks and check under his car regularly.

Yeah it outrageous. They've only gone and restricted it those people with access to the internet. The swine. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners[/quote]

In summary, and in probability speak, it says what many of us say at this range.
In other words, no one has a scooby LOL.

Sure, but to imply the Met Office are in some way "determined to restrict the contents... to a select few" when it's clearly there to be found on the internet is misleading, incorrect and unfair. It would be foolish to over promote something which they make clear is pretty speculative, but it's there, not hidden, for all to find and it seems a shame to imply it is anything otherwise.