Thanks all.

Here's the fourth Winter 13/14 Round-Up video:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

This one deals with ENSO in particular, but also with solar activity, Siberian snow cover and other stuff too.

Enjoy.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Oh dear! October update of METO probability maps shows higher probability of above average winter temps over uk.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

A good sign for cold weather lovers.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Originally Posted by: roger63 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Oh dear! October update of METO probability maps shows higher probability of above average winter temps over uk.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Oh dear! October update of METO probability maps shows higher probability of above average winter temps over uk.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

HERE IS AN UPDATE ON THE LATEST STATE OF WINTER INDICATORS

1.ENSO discussion.10th October update has prediction of ENSO neutral conditions persisting into the Northern Hemisphere spring.Many models predict a gradual increase of ENSO 3.4 index within neutral(-0.5 to +0.5C) from cooler than aveage to warmer conditionsas spring approaches.But overall the nain message is for a weak ENSO effect on European winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

2.SST,s

The link is to  late May SST anomalues<gavin P has identified a tripole pattern which is supposewd to be linked to NAO - winters.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.27.2013.gif

 3.QBO.

This remains in steady positive territory +13.12Difficul to be sure that this will continue through into winter but seems likely to remain on the positive side suggesting stronger than average zonal flow.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

4.Solar Activity.

A significant shift down in September from 66 in August to 39.It doesn,t look like another peak,but rather a slow decine to the solar minimum in 2019/20,starting cycle 25  which may well be weak enough to be a Maunder Minimum.No real evidenc of direct link from individual years Sunspot number to CET except around the solar minimum itself  

 http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

5.CFS V2 Forecasts

Have moved from cool to warm or near average CET for DJF.(Ie all over the place)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

6.METO probability maps (Dec-Feb).

 October maps resolutely  showing wnter DJF strongly warm over northern latitudes,with UK being higher than average.Precipitation near average  with pressure probability slightly below normal to north slightly above avreage to SW of UK and above average over Russia.No sign of northern blocking.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 7.Seasonal pattern matching.

Cold signal from spring,no soignal from Summer.Autumn heading for warm/very warm,wet /very wet.Best indicator of winter cold is warm/wet combination.

Conclusion .

Indicators still mixed.However those of us who want cold should be inceasingly concerned by the warm signal from METO probability maps.A straw to clutch at.There is a build up of  ladybirds on my inside window frames.The level of build up is as yet lower than the huge build up experienced in November 2010 and weknow waht followed that !

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Many thanks for that round-up, roger.

As you say in your first post on this thread, there are plenty of decent winters associated with positive figures for the QBO. 1978/9 wasn't bad and, indeed, 2010/11 went positive in Aug, and double-digit positive in Oct, and stayed that way right through to May! So I'm not too concerned about that indicator being stongly positive on the last reading.

Also, as doc pointed out, the Met Office maps do actually show a weakly positive anomaly for pressure to our north west. As it happens, the latest CFS runs seem to indicate highly positive pressure anomalies over the Arctic, getting stronger as winter progresses.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Sea.html

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 

A little off topic but interestingly I note john major's statements today about energy prices specifically reference a 'cold spell' this winter.

He's either misinformed regarding the MO output today.... Or the government had received news not available to the public.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I saw that as well. He actually said a cold winter is "likely".  Based on what, I have no idea but it is probably just speculation to help promote his windfall tax plan

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Latest CFS update has incerdible warmth over west Russia for January( neutral over UK).What synoptics would produce that outcome?

Originally Posted by: roger63 

You need to post the chart Roger as these update frequently.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Another CFS update....12z 23/10

Cold Russia; average to mild UK?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013102212/cfsnh-8-1-2014.png?12

Joe

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Followed by a bitter Feb

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013102218/cfs-8-2-2014.png?18

Originally Posted by: Chalkie 

JFF is fine, but CFS ultra long range anomolies continue to wobble around like a really wobbly thing.
There is very little value in daily analysis of these charts, but if you can keep a secret, I am rather inclined to have a peek now and again - just for fun LOL.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins