http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek6.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek7.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek8.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek9.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek10.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek11.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek12.gif

Weeks on end of freezing temps from CFS

JFF JFF JFF  of course

Then they can't be the exact same can they ???

I knew what you meant

But clearly JFF JFF JFF  and yes a real freeze up. .....................unlikely though lets be honest

Still time for a few more twists and turns, but I will still produce it, whether it's good or not!

Today's video takes a look at that CFS run;

An Exceptionally Cold CFS

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Also looks like November could turn drier and cooler.

Off topic, but will you be able to do a storm update on video at some stage? I like your "Flash" feature, but a video would be useful.

EDIT - I mean in the morning once the next lot of charts are out...because your videos are brilliant in severe weather.

Would certainly rival if not surpass the winter of 09/10 IF those charts came off.

Eurasian snowcover at end-September the highest since 1977.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/if-new-york-freezes-in-january-blame-siberian-snow-now.html

I'll definetely get something done on video Re. The Storm - This weekend.

Cheers Gav

If only

Enjoyed that, Gav - fingers crossed!

I have to say, purely from a pattern matching point of view, I think the hopes of a particularly cold winter are slimmer than they have been in recent years.

The jet is roaring away stronger than is has been for many years, and the storms are starting to form...I think November will be a very unsettled month with the jet roaring all the way through the British Isles and through to central and eastern parts of Europe.

I think we would be unlikely to see a cold winter this year (for more reasons than the above of course), but time will tell.

I have to say I am struggling with any logic in that, Moomin.  The jet can blow itself out in a matter of days and I know that it's not rare to find a sudden lurch in the pattern as the jet buckles and high pressure develops.

To write off January and February on the basis of a hunch that November might be dominated by a strong jetstream just seems rather fanciful to me.

Of course I'm not saying that my "hunch", my "inkling" will be anywhere near the mark, but I do use pattern matching in my annual LRF. It's just one very small cog in the wheel.

Bearing in mind that we have a storm just over a day away and we still don't know the affects or the track of that, it would be folly of me to say that my LRF will be any more or less accurate than any other year.

It's all (to use Gooner's phrase) JUST FOR FUN! 

LOL. I thought "JJF" was only used when the charts were showing blizzards and/or a metre of snow. A long range forecast of mild weather all winter isn't my idea of fun....! ;-)

I could say I've got a hunch that after a couple of near misses in the recent ones, this winter we will strike lucky (assuming you want a snowy cold winter). There are some who would suggest that increased snow cover and more extensive Arctic ice increase the odds.

Just so long as we don't see much of "the slug" I'll be fairly content...

I have to say, purely from a pattern matching point of view, I think the hopes of a particularly cold winter are slimmer than they have been in recent years.
The jet is roaring away stronger than is has been for many years, and the storms are starting to form...I think November will be a very unsettled month with the jet roaring all the way through the British Isles and through to central and eastern parts of Europe.
I think we would be unlikely to see a cold winter this year (for more reasons than the above of course), but time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I have to say I am struggling with any logic in that, Moomin. The jet can blow itself out in a matter of days and I know that it's not rare to find a sudden lurch in the pattern as the jet buckles and high pressure develops.
To write off January and February on the basis of a hunch that November might be dominated by a strong jetstream just seems rather fanciful to me.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Sorry Gandalf, I should have said it was based purely on a "hunch"....Don't worry I'm not about to write off winter! I guess my thinking is mainly because how active we have become recently, although I confess this is just normal for October....
Of course I'm not saying that my "hunch", my "inkling" will be anywhere near the mark, but I do use pattern matching in my annual LRF. It's just one very small cog in the wheel.
Bearing in mind that we have a storm just over a day away and we still don't know the affects or the track of that, it would be folly of me to say that my LRF will be any more or less accurate than any other year.
It's all (to use Gooner's phrase) JUST FOR FUN!

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

LOL. I thought "JJF" was only used when the charts were showing blizzards and/or a metre of snow. A long range forecast of mild weather all winter isn't my idea of fun....! ;-)

I could say I've got a hunch that after a couple of near misses in the recent ones, this winter we will strike lucky (assuming you want a snowy cold winter). There are some who would suggest that increased snow cover and more extensive Arctic ice increase the odds.

Just so long as we don't see much of "the slug" I'll be fairly content...

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Agree - don't forget how stormy and atlantic driven the weather was in November 2010...we all know what happened at the end of the month. Also last year, even into December wet and windy ruled then we had January snow (a rare event south of the Midlands pre 2009) followed by the coldest March in many years. Looking at those statistics it's hard to call a wet and windy winter all the way through, and given the bias of recent winters for at least one decent cold spell to occur that's a brave hunch to have! 

Being the weather it could happen but if you were writing this in 2006 I'd probably agree with you but a lot has changed since then.

I certainly wouldn't worry about a raging Atlantic in October, far too early . I'm not sure it will be a very cold Winter probably leaning more towards average, which is still good if you want to see some snowy spells

Hi all,

Here's the second seasonal model round-up video for winter 13/14;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Still some quite interesting charts about.

Cheers Gav

Some real mixed signals there, who knows what we will end up with, could well be with a mid latitude HP extending North at times giving some colder interludes at times

Thanks Gav.

Most of the models are pointing towards a fairly normal winter - nothing particularly cold - though not especially mild.

Cold snaps rather than long cold spells would be the order of the day.

Thanks Gavin.

As you say, very mixed signals - and some chopping and changing in some of the forecasts.

This long-range forecast suggests odds on an average to mild winter, but of note is the strong signal for a very mild winter over Iceland and eastern Greenland.  That seems to give a hint of some northern blocking perhaps.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ 

Thanks guys.

Gandalf, I couldn't really work out why the UKMO was showing such warm temperature anomalies in the northern latitiudes given it was forecasting relatively low pressure for there.

Hi Gavin, I was thinking about that when you were commenting on that chart. I wondered if it might be a long fetch south-westerly carrying mild(ish) air well into higher latitudes north of Scandinavia and across the top of Russia? It wouldn't be that common but it's the only explanation I could think of.

Hope you're not too bunged up - sounded a bit rough at times on the video.