A calculation based on latest GFS 06z output (with a conservative estimate of nigh minima) suggests cumulative CET increasing as follows from today to the 31st:
17th 18.0; 18th 18.1, 19th 18.2, 20th 18.2, 21st 18.3, 22nd 18.5, 23rd 18.6, 24th 18.8, 25th 18.9, 26th 18.9, 27th 18.8, 28th 18.7, 29th 18.7, 30th 18.6, 31st 18.5
Still the ability in the last few days of the month for the CET to tumble if there are a few cold nights and days in the teens, instead of the warmish weather currently shown in the model.
18.5C would put July up amongst the big boys, a little behind Aug 47, July 76, July and Aug 95, Aug 97 and July 06, but ahead of Aug 2003, Aug 1990, July 89 and July 94 for example.
The first 15 nights of the month were actually 0.2C colder than normal. I think that has put paid to any possible record attempt.
Edited by user
17 July 2013 15:55:09
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Reason: Not specified
Brockley, South East London 30m asl