Met Office Hadley    17.2c.   Anomaly  1.4c.   Provisional  To  12th. ....

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Is there any chance of an 18c+ CET this month?

Shame that GW is so busy during this stunning period of weather. I hope he's not being worn out too much to enjoy the fine evenings!

In the meantime, I've done an estimate of the CET using the raw GFS 12z op run data from today (higher-res only) out to 21st July. It comes in at 18.36°C which is really quite impressive

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Surprised it is not higher than that. Makes me wonder how the hell we managed to get 19.7c in July 2006!

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My Mean  18.7c.

Metcheck  17.24c.   0.78c.  Abovr Average.

 

N-W.         17.69c.

 

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We've gone up to 17.5;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Think we'll get to 18.0 at some point within the next week?

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Definitly within next 10 days....As temp may well be..31c 0n 23rd according to to BBC Bath area...

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My Mean  18.9c.

 

Metcheck  17.40c.  Anomaly 0.93c  Above Average.

 

N-W 17.83c.

 

Met Office Hadley  17.7c.  Anomaly  1.8c.  Provisional to 14th..

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Surprised it is not higher than that. Makes me wonder how the hell we managed to get 19.7c in July 2006!

It's been fresh at night, until this week. Night temps are just as important as day temps. I think the max temp anomaly will end up much higher than the mean anomaly. I remember 2006 well, and it was muggy. Look also at how Aug 1997 competed with Aug 1995 - all about night minima.

In our favour though, West is best heatwaves like this one favour the CET because all but one of the stations (Rothamsted) is in the West. It's really a WET. Those months that are warm in Kent and London but poor in the North West and the West Country do badly on the CET, like most of the summers months of 2009.

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Is there any chance of an 18c+ CET this month?

More chance than <17c CET!

I think  most of us seriously underestimated this month.

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Is there any chance of an 18c+ CET this month?

More chance than <17c CET!

I think  most of us seriously underestimated this month.

 

Not I 

Pattern matching schmattern schmatching. 18.0C for me.

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Now on 17.7C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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I am starting to wonder what chance there is of hitting 19C

We'll never break 2006 - that is hardly possible.

I do regard thought anything over 18C is a good hot month.

 

 

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I think TA Harley describes anything above 17.5 as a hot summer month and above 18.5 as a very hot month. So to join his rarefied elite of very hot months we need 18.5. Considering how cold SSTs were at the start of July anything like that would be remarkable, as SSTs have a big effect on nocturnal temperatures in particular. With seas more like those in July 2006 I think we would be well on course to threaten that record.

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My Mean is a reading some may say it is wrong....Unscreened   19.4c.

 

Metcheck     17.60c.  1.14c. Above Average.

 

N-W.  18.04c.  Anomaly  1.54c..

 

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Met Office Hadley    17.8c.  Anomaly 1.9c.   Provisional  to 15th....

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I am starting to wonder what chance there is of hitting 19C

We'll never break 2006 - that is hardly possible.

I do regard thought anything over 18C is a good hot month.

 

 

 

The last time we had a sub 14c June followed by an 18c July was way back in 1901 (June 13.9, July 18.0).

 

I wonder, could this summer break the record for the hottest ashes series played in England?

It's largely thanks to the maxima that the CET is on the high side, the minima haven't been that impressive. Infact, I don't we have recorded a CET minimum of at least 14.0C thus far for this year.

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It's largely thanks to the maxima that the CET is on the high side, the minima haven't been that impressive. Infact, I don't we have recorded a CET minimum of at least 14.0C thus far for this year.

Nice to see the Manchester summer index now on 223. Brilliant.

 

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My  Mean    19.6c.

 

Metcheck   17.80c    Anomaly  1.34c.

 

N-W          18.24c.  Anomaly    1.74c.

 

Met Office Hadley    17.9c.  Anomaly 2.0c.   Provisional   To 16th.

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