During the final few days of June I was keeping check on what the GFS runs had the CET doing in the first week of July, and the average for the CET up to the 4th was 14.26°C. The latest of the runs - 12z of 30th June - was lower at 13.75°C.
Accounting for possible overcooked readings, the actual CET could be somewhere near 15°C - or in fact it could be nearer 14.8°C given that my local mean is 14.85°C and temps down here have been quite similar overall.
Even so, GFS undercooked the CET, and the main reason is that it had the night temperatures too low, often by as much as 3-5°C... the model seems to overestimate the rate at which the atmosphere can change temperature, as can also be seen from it's predictions for temperature rise in the mornings (had 25°C for midday here... unrealistic from a 9.9°C low, and that was a little higher than GFS had down for last night!).
To Thursday 11th July, the GFS 12z op run gives a CET estimate of 16.68°C - a notable climb, but not exceptional. If night's turn out to be higher than 10-12°C then of course the CET will be higher.
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T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
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