CET now upto 17.9c (2.0c above normal) provisional to 16th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 


I've messed up on the competition, went high last month and average this month,

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 I wonder if we'll get to 19C.

 

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A calculation based on latest GFS 06z output (with a conservative estimate of nigh minima) suggests cumulative CET increasing as follows from today to the 31st:

17th 18.0; 18th 18.1, 19th 18.2, 20th 18.2, 21st 18.3, 22nd 18.5, 23rd 18.6, 24th 18.8, 25th 18.9, 26th 18.9, 27th 18.8, 28th 18.7, 29th 18.7, 30th 18.6, 31st 18.5

Still the ability in the last few days of the month for the CET to tumble if there are a few cold nights and days in the teens, instead of the warmish weather currently shown in the model.

18.5C would put July up amongst the big boys, a little behind Aug 47, July 76, July and Aug 95, Aug 97 and July 06, but ahead of Aug 2003, Aug 1990, July 89 and July 94 for example.

The first 15 nights of the month were actually 0.2C colder than normal. I think that has put paid to any possible record attempt.

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A calculation based on latest GFS 06z output (with a conservative estimate of nigh minima) suggests cumulative CET increasing as follows from today to the 31st:

17th 18.0; 18th 18.1, 19th 18.2, 20th 18.2, 21st 18.3, 22nd 18.5, 23rd 18.6, 24th 18.8, 25th 18.9, 26th 18.9, 27th 18.8, 28th 18.7, 29th 18.7, 30th 18.6, 31st 18.5

Still the ability in the last few days of the month for the CET to tumble if there are a few cold nights and days in the teens, instead of the warmish weather currently shown in the model.

18.5C would put July up amongst the big boys, a little behind Aug 47, July 76, July and Aug 95, Aug 97 and July 06, but ahead of Aug 2003, Aug 1990, July 89 and July 94 for example.

The first 15 nights of the month were actually 0.2C colder than normal. I think that has put paid to any possible record attempt.

Cheers Tim - that answers my question well. So it seems in many ways this could be a classic July. It may peak at 18.9C - it would be be a shame if it dropped from there.

But i think most of us would be relieved to see some cooler weather by then.

 

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If those figures were with conservative night-time estimnates then there is every chance we could touch 19C at least for a day or two - especially as the models seem to be pushing even warmer air up from the south next week.

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It's been somewhat hotter down here overall, with the mean likely to climb above 19.0°C by the time this Friday is done with

For reference, 2006 saw a 24h mean of 21.44°C here

August was 20.23°C... not entirely out of reach if something like today's ECM 12z op run verifies

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The big 18c has been reached.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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16.1c here so far

Mean min 9.9c down 1.1c on 2012

mean max 22.3c up 4.5c on 2012

My   Mean       19.8c.

 

Metcheck         18.04c.  Anomaly   1.57c.

 

N-W                 18.46c.   Anomaly  1.96c.

 

Met Office Hadley    18.0c.  Anomaly  2.1c.   Provisional to  17th.

 

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The big 18c has been reached.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Think we'll be able to keep it in the 18's as well.

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Rekon it could end up 18.5c or higher?

The mean here is nudging 20c, currently 19.9c just how far above 20c will it go.

A classic july to go with 2006,2003,1995,1990,1983,1976

In the SW this month has been extraordinary. It is currently way ahead of July 2006 in terms of highest max, number of days 27C+, and mean max. It might end up challenging July 1983 which appears to be the record hottest in SE Devon.

The big 18c has been reached.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Sure is going up smartly.

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The big 18c has been reached.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Think we'll be able to keep it in the 18's as well.

I wonder if it might even peak at 19c!!  I haven't been recording temps so I don't know what my mean is, but it really feels like it should be considerably higher. 

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Now we're up to 18.2;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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My Mean 20.0c.

 

Metcheck 18.22c.  Anomaly 1.75c. Above Average

 

N-W        18.69c.  Anomaly  2.19c.

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The big 18c has been reached.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Think we'll be able to keep it in the 18's as well.

Not if current models are to be believed with a big cool down from Tuesday/Wednesday (when at one point it looked like the heat would be maintained to Friday or Saturday)

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My  Mean  20.1c.

 

Metcheck   18.30c.  Anomaly 1.84c.

 

N-W          18.79c.  Anomaly  2.29c.

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Met Office Hadley   18.4c.  Anomaly 2.5c.     provisional to 19th.

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I have been taking a break for the past couple of weeks to enjoy the nice weather and I was away for one week. Here is my latest estimate of the CET for July. There are some data issues as Rothamsted has not reported any data this month and I am missing a bit of data from when I was away.

My current CET estimate up to the 20th is 17.95C which compares well with Philip Eden's figure of 18.0C http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm . If anything my data is probably a little on the low side.

Currently I expect the CET to finish at 18.34C. If that verifies it will be the fourth warmest July since 1976 with only 1983 (19.5C), 1995 (18.6C) and 2006 (19.7C) warmer. So definitely one of the best July's we have had in recent times.

So far this year we have had 4 days with a CET above 20C. Current output suggests there could be 3 more in the next 3 days which would push us up to 7, the highest figure since 2006.