The Weather Outlook

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Snow Wolf
26 September 2011 16:53:40

The plot thickens;

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

LOL so tomorrow's Express could read 'Mr Brian Gaze TWO LRF Guru adamantly refuses to comment on leaked rumours that have sent shares in leading winter tyre Companies soaring!'

Joe Bloggs
26 September 2011 17:03:26

I understand that a very well known lrf'er has today advised people not to waste thier money on winter tyres this year.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

If we're talking about you know who, all I'll say is;

Time to start lagging me pipes.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think I know who you mean.

The guy who makes a forecast and the opposite occurs? 99% of the time?

Joe Bloggs
26 September 2011 17:07:30

Regarding Tom C's winter tyres, I believe he has hinted that he might be getting them a bit later on in the season this year.

Either that or we may be slightly over-analysing things.

TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2011 17:08:37

I understand that a very well known lrf'er has today advised people not to waste thier money on winter tyres this year.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

If we're talking about you know who, all I'll say is;

Time to start lagging me pipes.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I think I know who you mean.

The guy who makes a forecast and the opposite occurs? 99% of the time?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I bought my winter tyres last year and they do last more than 1 year ! . Last year I put then on 15 November.

TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2011 17:09:58

Regarding Tom C's winter tyres, I believe he has hinted that he might be getting them a bit later on in the season this year.

Either that or we may be slightly over-analysing things.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

You are right Joe  It is likely that it will be later this year it is unlikely we will get so much snow in Glossop / Manchester in November this year, besides we have an aircraft project based in Exeter starting Nov 21 this year and its pretty warm down there

PK2
  • PK2
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2011 17:23:51

I bought my winter tyres last year and they do last more than 1 year ! . Last year I put then on 15 November.

Originally Posted by: TomC 

mine are going on soon but that's got more to do with how worn both they and my summer ones are. Summer ones need replacing now whilst the winter ones are ok for non snow use but need replacing before snow use. So I'm putting off buying new summers for six months & getting more wear out of my winters by swapping now. Bought the winter  ones now though in case of mad panic come first sign of snow . Would advise other thinking of winter tyres, snow chains/socks, or "pavement crampons" to do the same (not an LRF)

Gavin D
26 September 2011 17:43:20

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

 

haggishunter
26 September 2011 17:46:27

I understand that a very well known lrf'er has today advised people not to waste thier money on winter tyres this year.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Yea, go straight to snow chains!

Joe Bloggs
26 September 2011 17:49:12

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Gavin D
26 September 2011 17:58:06

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Solar Cycles
26 September 2011 18:01:08

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Could well see continuing low heights over Greenland until mid/late winter, thereafter rinse and repeat just in time for summer. 

Joe Bloggs
26 September 2011 18:07:13

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Lower heights to our north tends to mean that we'd get mild weather. The reason we've had three cold winters is that we've had extensive periods of northern blocking, with high pressure pushing south out of the vicinity of the north pole, and towards Iceland and Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.png

If you look at this analysis chart, there is very little high pressure to our north, and this pattern has been with us for a short while now, which does give some credit to the thoughts of GP.

However, things can change very quickly.. and I'll be keeping an eye on the NWP. I'd like to see some evidence of further northern blocking within a month or so to suggest that the patterns haven't switched in the manner at which GP suggests.

Gavin D
26 September 2011 18:12:34

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Lower heights to our north tends to mean that we'd get mild weather. The reason we've had three cold winters is that we've had extensive periods of northern blocking, with high pressure pushing south out of the vicinity of the north pole, and towards Iceland and Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.png

If you look at this analysis chart, there is very little high pressure to our north, and this pattern has been with us for a short while now, which does give some credit to the thoughts of GP.

However, things can change very quickly.. and I'll be keeping an eye on the NWP. I'd like to see some evidence of further northern blocking within a month or so to suggest that the patterns haven't switched in the manner at which GP suggests.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Sounds promising then for a mild winter, but things can change any time.

Gavin D
26 September 2011 18:22:17

The model is forecasting cool (La Nina) conditions in the final months of 2011 and first part of 2012

Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C)

SON2011-0.17
OND2011-0.28
NDJ2011/2012-0.45
DJF2011/2012-0.61
JFM2012-0.69
FMA2012-0.66
MAM2012-0.59
AMJ2012-0.50
MJJ2012-0.37

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html

blizzard of 78
26 September 2011 18:24:21

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

I must admit that I follow GP and his posts with great interest and he certainly knows his stuff, however the Netweather seasonal summer forecast was suggesting a possible 1976 scenario or something close to it. So I wouldn't at this stage be worrying too much about the coming winter. However once winter is on our doorstep GP.s postings will no doubt prove very useful for the medium range outlooks.

David M Porter
26 September 2011 19:14:59

Good to see the winter thread as friendly as ever 

 

Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 

I might stick to UIA this winter, Saint, as the calmer option. ;)

Originally Posted by: TomC 

Or the climate forum

Originally Posted by: NickR 

Much improved since some intervention from admin, drop in and say hello.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Yes, since I did my Alex Ferguson "hairdryer" act in there last week, it seems to have become a rather more civilised place, for the time being at least.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Brian Gaze
26 September 2011 19:17:49

 "hairdryer" act in there last week, it seems to have become a rather more civilised place, for the time being at least.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

It's not me who today has been hinting at the hairdryer this winter.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Stormchaser
26 September 2011 19:20:16

Well I've been hoping that northern blocking would temporarily make a comeback for the second half of October and a fair part of November, but reading GPs post on Netweather has made me take a step back and reset my expecations to 'nothing in particular' for now - they were creeping towards a very cold period just prior to winter, which is a foolish thing to allow to happen because it only sets me up for potential dissapointment!

 

His post provides yet more support for a dry, cool and rather uninteresting first half of the winter, but leaves the door open for potential excitement later. For example, the possibilty of blocking highs to our NE in February has gained a little ground of late, but that means little at this point in time.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

David M Porter
26 September 2011 19:24:51

 "hairdryer" act in there last week, it seems to have become a rather more civilised place, for the time being at least.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It's not me who today has been hinting at the hairdryer this winter.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
26 September 2011 19:30:24

Well I've been hoping that northern blocking would temporarily make a comeback for the second half of October and a fair part of November, but reading GPs post on Netweather has made me take a step back and reset my expecations to 'nothing in particular' for now - they were creeping towards a very cold period just prior to winter, which is a foolish thing to allow to happen because it only sets me up for potential dissapointment!

 

His post provides yet more support for a dry, cool and rather uninteresting first half of the winter, but leaves the door open for potential excitement later. For example, the possibilty of blocking highs to our NE in February has gained a little ground of late, but that means little at this point in time.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

It's too early to have any proper idea at the moment, in my opinion. I seem to recall that during the first few days of November last year, a few people were expressing concern at the synoptic set-up we had then and how in their view it didn't bode for a great start to the winter in terms of cold. Little did any of us have any idea at that time of what was coming our way 3-4 weeks later...

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Stormchaser
26 September 2011 19:48:12

It's too early to have any proper idea at the moment, in my opinion. I seem to recall that during the first few days of November last year, a few people were expressing concern at the synoptic set-up we had then and how in their view it didn't bode for a great start to the winter in terms of cold. Little did any of us have any idea at that time of what was coming our way 3-4 weeks later...

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Yes I do remember that sudden change last year. Essentially I'm looking out for something like that happening again but about a month earlier this time.

Really I and a few others have been talking about the second half of Autumn rather than winter, of course. I find little comfort in looking beyond 4-6 weeks ahead.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

hedgehog4
26 September 2011 20:00:57

It's too early to have any proper idea at the moment, in my opinion. I seem to recall that during the first few days of November last year, a few people were expressing concern at the synoptic set-up we had then and how in their view it didn't bode for a great start to the winter in terms of cold. Little did any of us have any idea at that time of what was coming our way 3-4 weeks later...

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Yes I do remember that sudden change last year. Essentially I'm looking out for something like that happening again but about a month earlier this time.

Really I and a few others have been talking about the second half of Autumn rather than winter, of course. I find little comfort in looking beyond 4-6 weeks ahead.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I also remember that to, think I recall about 15-17'C on the 1st or 2nd of November  

Brian Gaze
26 September 2011 21:19:28

Summary of what some forecasters are currently going for here....

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/273142/Are-we-set-for-a-long-cold-winter-

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

SEMerc
26 September 2011 23:06:46

Summary of what some forecasters are currently going for here....

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/273142/Are-we-set-for-a-long-cold-winter-

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

So a brutal winter is pretty much nailed on then.

“Forecasts of a cold and dry October will fail. It will be generally wet and mild with divisions across the UK and two dangerous storm periods. Predictions of a cold autumn and winter is baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes.” : *****Corbyn

LeedsLad123
27 September 2011 03:20:50

Summary of what some forecasters are currently going for here....

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/273142/Are-we-set-for-a-long-cold-winter-

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 

So a brutal winter is pretty much nailed on then.

“Forecasts of a cold and dry October will fail. It will be generally wet and mild with divisions across the UK and two dangerous storm periods. Predictions of a cold autumn and winter is baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes.” : *****Corbyn

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Only from the head wannabe himself. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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