The outlook strikes me as generally chilly and unsettled as opposed to wintry.  Then again it is November so perhaps not surprising!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=manchester&charthour=60&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20 (GPDM)

The GFS ensembles would seem to be in agreement with you, taking Manchester as one example. Given the long run of well above average temperatures that we've had for the year to date, I'll take that.

I would have thought that is the sort of profile Paul Bartlett may have been looking for when considering if the chance of a cold winter is above the norm. It would be a very exciting outcome, given that we've had month after month of above average CET.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_126_preciptype.png 

Quite a temperature gradient in that low, 15C on the south coast and close to freezing on the Scottish border.

Closer to the present, some quite sharp frosts on the way in the next couple of days. UKV has -5C here on Saturday morning.

Whereas that shows 80 mph (possibly higher) gusts along Southern England . . . again.  Other models are showing less so it's not thankfully nailed on yet. 

PS: And is also an outlier in the 06z ensembles. 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=2&run=6&time=294&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Nonsense. People were saying this back in 2010.

There is plenty of cold up north in the Arctic righ now! Northern regions of Sweden & Finland are in parts (as I type as) in the -20's. Arctic islands such as Svalbard in double negative too. And it's still technically speaking day time in these regions of the arctic. 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Yes I've been watching Tuesday for a few days now.

'Features coming into stuff' always has potential even if the air isn't even that cold. In recent years though these events have always been underwhelming for some reason.

Cold rain turning to wet snow over hills if pptn rates are high enough

If  I see the snow then that 2020's we seeing snow almost every November which is unheard and last snow was 1995, 1993 and in the 1980's.  12z ensembles also looking average to below with a drop again early next week some go for -5C again.

I suspect a bit of altitude would be required but at T+105 it's enough to raise a brow.

I doubt it will be there on the next run, but perhaps it may tempt Darren (Retron) out of hibernation!

Oh yea of little faith - it's still there...

If November ice supports a duck rest if winter will be slush and muck.

GFS Op - like FAX but the trough over S England has a more definite centre at 974mb. All the LP moves on to congregate over Sweden, leaving a brief ridge of HP for Britain Fri 20th. The next LP is a shallow 995mb running along the Channel Sun 22nd, and then a deeper one sitting W of Ireland 980mb Wed 25th with S/SE-lies for Britain. This drops S-wards and fills leaving a fine weekend for the whole country with HP 1030mb Sun 29th. AMENDED on the 06z as the final LP persists after moving south and takes up a position over N France with E-lies for England on the 29th; any HP stays up near Iceland

ECM - differs from the above once Sunday's LP has moved on; on Tue 17th the next LP is out on the Atlantic 960mb but swinging a well-defined trough NE-wards across Britain, not linking across to Scandinavia. As this LP fills, it drifts across Britain 995mb Fri 20th, no ridge of HP at that time. Then instead of a Channel low, a large LP sets up off W Scotland 965mb Mon 23rd with SW-lies generally. ADDED after later download - it fills and by Wed 25th presents as a flabby LP over England, deepest in the SW; by Sat 28th there's a new trough to the west with SW-lies for all.

AIFS - London, maxima 8-10C to Tue 17th with rain on Sun 15th and Tue 17th; then after a dip to 5C climbing steadily to 15C by Thu 24th with small amounts of rain from time to time. Edinburgh, 6-8C now with rain on Sun 15th (but not 17th), then a more prolonged cold spell down to 3C around Thu 19th before recovering to 12C Wed 25th, dry until Tue 24th then rain , heavy at first but persisting.

GEFS - mean temp and ens up and down for a few days, then from Thu 19th close to or a little below norm. Rain for England starts Sun 15th, very heavy 17th, persisting  but less intense through to Sun 29th;  for Scotland also on 15th but then mostly dry to Sun 22nd when some rain in many ens members. Snow row figures briefly in high teens for Birmingham and northwards on Sun 15th, otherwise low single figures except for the Highlands.

Generally though with the upcoming unsettled stuff, an average rainfall month seems reasonably likely, which amusingly keeps me on track for being either at similar levels to last year's total or a touch above. 

Edit: I was looking at yesterday's 15Z. The 03Z has shifted everything north, as has the 06Z GFS.

Certainly some interest in the charts (and a beautiful crisp frosty morning right now, too).

Basically since the airmass is not going to be that cold, those of us in the east don't have much chance of anything out of this unfortunately.

Yes, 18z even worse. All gone pete tong as it always does.  Roll on Spring