Just looked at the latest MJO forecasts. Whilst still tentative, the progression is a slow but steady one into Phase 2 from Phase 1. This is likely to bring a gradual lowering of heights over Greenland with the Atlantic storms eventually tracking far enough north of the UK to leave the south with plenty of dry, warm weather, whilst the north sees some rain still, but also plenty of drier interludes.
The current GFS and ECM model output is reflecting this to some extent.
I have plenty of reason to stand by my original thoughts from April for a summer that improves all the while as we progress through it.
I have to laugh at the weatheronline forecast. "All the available evidence" is complete b******s as the lastest CFS output, for example, has high pressure over the UK but centered just to our east.
The outlook also seems far too negative about the upcoming period out to 20th July. There's plenty to suggest that the Atlantic may be active, yes, but also be moving north of the UK for the most part. IMO a good longer range forecast needs to consider a range of possibilities rather than just picking out what is usually the most negative one in weatheronline's case.
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