Says the guy that’s been posting summer is over posts since the first heatwave in May….. The summer version of Gloomin

Factually - there is little sign of any rain here in the south that’s going to make any real difference to the drought in the reliable period 

Friday to Sunday still mostly fine and dry, few showers in the NW. Temps around 17 - 21 C NW to SE

Monday and Tuesday, an occlusion then standard warm & cold fronts from an Atlantic Low move through with rain or showers 16 - 19 C

Wednesday to Friday, the models suggest the Low and upper cold pool moving slowly to our northeast with NW or even N winds. Sunny spells and showers 14 - 17 C and feeling more autumnal. Frosts likely in the glens by this time

GFS shows an Atlantic High trying to move in further ahead but Low Pressure stubborn over Denmark area

GFS Op 0z - the LP mentioned in FAX crosses over to central Scandinavia, and persistent LP there to Mon 24th brings light northerlies for Britain - cooler, but too far away to imply rain. On Tue 25th a local LP which has been brewing to the SW reaches Cornwall 1000mb, also running east to Scandinavia. Northerlies then resume, strengthened a little by another small LP 1000mb running through N France Fri 25th. Pressure remains fairly high to the west of Britain from Mon 17th onwards.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Mon 24th, but then shows pressure dropping over the Atlantic with a large but shallow LP 1000mb and Britain under slack pressure between that and the Scandi LP.

AIFS - London, maxima after today dropping to 25C over the weekend and then further to 20C through to Fri 28th. Traces of rain next week, then heavy on Mon 24th and Thu 27th. Edinburgh, maxima slowly decreasing from today's peak to 15C Mon 24th before rising a little. Rain Tue 18th, Fri 21st and Thu 27th, a little at other times

GEFS - mean temp first dropping to norm, then below norm by a couple of degrees from Mon 17th to end of month. In tS England, chances of rain from 17th but only becoming significant from Mon 24th onwards; in Scotland and N England this is inverted with quite high chances of rain from 17th and a few days after, then chance of rain tails off.

Yeah, changes may well be afoot??

It’s a very different picture if you select Bristol 

A last hoorah end of Aug into Sept would be nice.

Following:  Yes it there on the 06 ensembles so hope we get heatwave 7 but don't expect high 30's type maybe 30 plus heatwaves to come.

I won't be calling heatwave No7 yet. From what I've seen of the models we've got at least 2 weeks of "normal", summer weather.  🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

ECM 12z looking very wet for Bristol 

I have been far from Gloomin this summer Matty.

Though I reckon winter may be short lived, mild and very wet. (Tongue firmly in cheek here). But what a remarkable summer we're having.

Hardly any rain for the South on the ECM 12z Beast 

After 9 days virtually nothing for the South still

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=18&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Arpege giving Bristol a soaking on Tue, but of course it fades out as it moves further S & E. Some of the GEFS ens members are also quite interesting on Tue for Cardiff and Birmingham

 It’s really not. About 5 mm in the next 7 days and maybe as much as 12 mm in ten days on the accumulated rainfall charts (with the caveat of what we have seen modelled before at that range this summer). 

Possibly wetter than recently, not that it would be difficult, but damp at most.

12z ensembles also look very dry here all the way just slight spikes in FI as usual.  It will be cooler but settled with average temps at times.  

It really is unprecedented to be able to sit on the lawn at night and keep a completely dry bottom. Even in August. 

After a mostly fine Saturday, light rain moves into the west tomorrow with more appreciable rain on Monday. Showers, possibly heavy Tuesday & Wednesday. Maybe a 20 C for Aberdeen or Fife today but mostly 14 - 17 C thereafter

Looking at the GFS further ahead. A spell of lighter northerlies and a mid Atlantic High which right at the end of August does push across Scotland

GFS Op 0z - the LP on Wed forms part of a general area of low pressure stretching across the North Sea. This fills as a ridge of HP sets up and persists across Scotland to the end of the month, by and large dominating Britain except for a two-day wonder of a depression doing a quick traverse from Brittany to East Anglia Mon/Tue 24th/25th with a brief N-ly in its wake.

ECM - agrees with GFS; the LP on Mon 24th covers a larger area of S England.

AIFS - London, maxima drop from 25C now to 18C Sat 22nd; then back up to 23C Wed 26th before dropping again. Rain in traces until Fri 21st when heavier, and then more rain on on Sat 29th. Edinburgh, maxima with similar profile but about 3C lower, rain at times in the coming week, dry for a while, then more on Sat 29th.

GEFS - mean temp (with quite good ens support) still a little above norm until Wed 19th, then near or a little below norm (rather more below for a time in Scotland) to end of month. In England, rain in traces now then rather more Wed 19th and (esp in S) from Sun 23rd onwards. In Scotland, rain on many days from Mon 17th, possibly dry for a few days around Sun 23rd esp in east.

If we look closely to end of August on ensembles for here and London there sign of early September heatwave so one to watch and perhaps. final heatwave 7.  For now look very dry, quite  settled and average temperatures.  

Watched a video on YT.Global Storm I think mentioned that everything was just starting to move in the Northern Hemisphere after been set in a pattern for a long time.

Looks like it might be a fine early Autumn in Scotland.Northj of Scotland has been very wet recently so I would expect a switch.

yes, late summer monsoon possible with spinning lows coming up from the south.  Shame if the rest of the cricket season is washed out as all the best weather used up by the Hundred