Yeah, changes may well be afoot??

It’s a very different picture if you select Bristol 

A last hoorah end of Aug into Sept would be nice.

Following:  Yes it there on the 06 ensembles so hope we get heatwave 7 but don't expect high 30's type maybe 30 plus heatwaves to come.

I won't be calling heatwave No7 yet. From what I've seen of the models we've got at least 2 weeks of "normal", summer weather.  🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

ECM 12z looking very wet for Bristol 

I have been far from Gloomin this summer Matty.

Though I reckon winter may be short lived, mild and very wet. (Tongue firmly in cheek here). But what a remarkable summer we're having.

Hardly any rain for the South on the ECM 12z Beast 

After 9 days virtually nothing for the South still

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=18&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Arpege giving Bristol a soaking on Tue, but of course it fades out as it moves further S & E. Some of the GEFS ens members are also quite interesting on Tue for Cardiff and Birmingham

 It’s really not. About 5 mm in the next 7 days and maybe as much as 12 mm in ten days on the accumulated rainfall charts (with the caveat of what we have seen modelled before at that range this summer). 

Possibly wetter than recently, not that it would be difficult, but damp at most.

12z ensembles also look very dry here all the way just slight spikes in FI as usual.  It will be cooler but settled with average temps at times.  

It really is unprecedented to be able to sit on the lawn at night and keep a completely dry bottom. Even in August. 

After a mostly fine Saturday, light rain moves into the west tomorrow with more appreciable rain on Monday. Showers, possibly heavy Tuesday & Wednesday. Maybe a 20 C for Aberdeen or Fife today but mostly 14 - 17 C thereafter

Looking at the GFS further ahead. A spell of lighter northerlies and a mid Atlantic High which right at the end of August does push across Scotland

GFS Op 0z - the LP on Wed forms part of a general area of low pressure stretching across the North Sea. This fills as a ridge of HP sets up and persists across Scotland to the end of the month, by and large dominating Britain except for a two-day wonder of a depression doing a quick traverse from Brittany to East Anglia Mon/Tue 24th/25th with a brief N-ly in its wake.

ECM - agrees with GFS; the LP on Mon 24th covers a larger area of S England.

AIFS - London, maxima drop from 25C now to 18C Sat 22nd; then back up to 23C Wed 26th before dropping again. Rain in traces until Fri 21st when heavier, and then more rain on on Sat 29th. Edinburgh, maxima with similar profile but about 3C lower, rain at times in the coming week, dry for a while, then more on Sat 29th.

GEFS - mean temp (with quite good ens support) still a little above norm until Wed 19th, then near or a little below norm (rather more below for a time in Scotland) to end of month. In England, rain in traces now then rather more Wed 19th and (esp in S) from Sun 23rd onwards. In Scotland, rain on many days from Mon 17th, possibly dry for a few days around Sun 23rd esp in east.

If we look closely to end of August on ensembles for here and London there sign of early September heatwave so one to watch and perhaps. final heatwave 7.  For now look very dry, quite  settled and average temperatures.  

Watched a video on YT.Global Storm I think mentioned that everything was just starting to move in the Northern Hemisphere after been set in a pattern for a long time.

Looks like it might be a fine early Autumn in Scotland.Northj of Scotland has been very wet recently so I would expect a switch.

yes, late summer monsoon possible with spinning lows coming up from the south.  Shame if the rest of the cricket season is washed out as all the best weather used up by the Hundred 

Not on the GFS 06z which has moved the location of the coming anticyclone from N Scotland to S England; the Channel LP noted in this morning's review for the 24th/25th has been deleted

That'd feel like autumn!

Sadly the upspike in 850s across the Ps shown for the last couple of days around 25th seems to be collapsing, with the Op and Control no longer on board. Plenty of time for a switchback though.

GFS Op 00z - following on from FAX, pressure rises W of Ireland and slowly moves eastwards, taking over from the LP and covering Britain 1025mb Wed 26th with return of warmth from the Continent. There is then a contest between HP which tries to establish a ridge from the Atlantic to Denmark and LP which tries to split the ridge into two as it pushes north from France. After some to-ing and fro-ing Britain finishes in a col, with LP 1010mb Normandy.

ECM - like GFS at first but fails to develop the HP area and on Wed 26th Britain is in a shallow trough stretching from Iceland to Spain. GFS offers a new heatwave lasting several days but on ECM it's only a one-day event.

AIFS - London, maxima falling to 18C by Sat 22nd, rising to 22C before falling again Sat 29th. Small amounts of rain this week, heavier Thu 20th, and then more Thu 27th and Sat 29th (Bank Holiday weekend alert!). Edinburgh, similar temp profile as for London but about 3C cooler; some rain this week but a lot from Thu 27th to Sat 29th (about 50mm non-stop over the two days).

GEFS - England, mean temp with good ens support soon dropping to norm or a little below through to Tue 1st (though op takes off towards hot at the end). Rain possible on any day but no consistent forecast as to when (perhaps more likely in SW around Thu 27th). Scotland, similar, but temp 'definitely' rather than 'a little' below norm in the next week; rain more likely than for England and certainly heavy in the west.

No sign of any ex-hurricane arriving to break up the nondescript pressure pattern for the Atlantic. Indeed, NHC has this morning written out a couple of potential disturbances and declared no activity on the Atlantic for the next 7 days.