Says the guy that’s been posting summer is over posts since the first heatwave in May….. The summer version of Gloomin

Factually - there is little sign of any rain here in the south that’s going to make any real difference to the drought in the reliable period 

Friday to Sunday still mostly fine and dry, few showers in the NW. Temps around 17 - 21 C NW to SE

Monday and Tuesday, an occlusion then standard warm & cold fronts from an Atlantic Low move through with rain or showers 16 - 19 C

Wednesday to Friday, the models suggest the Low and upper cold pool moving slowly to our northeast with NW or even N winds. Sunny spells and showers 14 - 17 C and feeling more autumnal. Frosts likely in the glens by this time

GFS shows an Atlantic High trying to move in further ahead but Low Pressure stubborn over Denmark area

GFS Op 0z - the LP mentioned in FAX crosses over to central Scandinavia, and persistent LP there to Mon 24th brings light northerlies for Britain - cooler, but too far away to imply rain. On Tue 25th a local LP which has been brewing to the SW reaches Cornwall 1000mb, also running east to Scandinavia. Northerlies then resume, strengthened a little by another small LP 1000mb running through N France Fri 25th. Pressure remains fairly high to the west of Britain from Mon 17th onwards.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Mon 24th, but then shows pressure dropping over the Atlantic with a large but shallow LP 1000mb and Britain under slack pressure between that and the Scandi LP.

AIFS - London, maxima after today dropping to 25C over the weekend and then further to 20C through to Fri 28th. Traces of rain next week, then heavy on Mon 24th and Thu 27th. Edinburgh, maxima slowly decreasing from today's peak to 15C Mon 24th before rising a little. Rain Tue 18th, Fri 21st and Thu 27th, a little at other times

GEFS - mean temp first dropping to norm, then below norm by a couple of degrees from Mon 17th to end of month. In tS England, chances of rain from 17th but only becoming significant from Mon 24th onwards; in Scotland and N England this is inverted with quite high chances of rain from 17th and a few days after, then chance of rain tails off.

Yeah, changes may well be afoot??

It’s a very different picture if you select Bristol 

A last hoorah end of Aug into Sept would be nice.

Following:  Yes it there on the 06 ensembles so hope we get heatwave 7 but don't expect high 30's type maybe 30 plus heatwaves to come.

I won't be calling heatwave No7 yet. From what I've seen of the models we've got at least 2 weeks of "normal", summer weather.  🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

ECM 12z looking very wet for Bristol 

I have been far from Gloomin this summer Matty.

Though I reckon winter may be short lived, mild and very wet. (Tongue firmly in cheek here). But what a remarkable summer we're having.

Hardly any rain for the South on the ECM 12z Beast 

After 9 days virtually nothing for the South still

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=18&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Arpege giving Bristol a soaking on Tue, but of course it fades out as it moves further S & E. Some of the GEFS ens members are also quite interesting on Tue for Cardiff and Birmingham

 It’s really not. About 5 mm in the next 7 days and maybe as much as 12 mm in ten days on the accumulated rainfall charts (with the caveat of what we have seen modelled before at that range this summer). 

Possibly wetter than recently, not that it would be difficult, but damp at most.

12z ensembles also look very dry here all the way just slight spikes in FI as usual.  It will be cooler but settled with average temps at times.  

It really is unprecedented to be able to sit on the lawn at night and keep a completely dry bottom. Even in August.