Yes, it’s getting to that time of year again. I see the 00z GFS op run has t850hPa of -2°C for the far north of the mainland tomorrow. Overall I would say tgat 2025 wad a more “summery” summer. It could be warm later in the week for a few days though which would be nice.

Odds seems stacked against it.  Ensembles have a clear trend.  So, Matty and others enjoy the last hurrah!

This coming week takes 2026 from one of the best summers to undisputed heavyweight champion of all time.

A further heatwave in the last third of August, and a dry bank holiday, would cement it as a total paradigm shift from what has come before, rather as 2003 did for France and Western Europe. 

You’ve been saying it regularly since the May heatwave. It’ll happen eventually 

It does seem odd to me that people aren't that concerned that a huge part of the population has had hardly any meaningful rain since March and that we will soon be reaching a point when all of southern England has had zero rainfall for 8 weeks. Yes, you can love your hot weather if that's what floats your boat but to not be worried about the difficulties for farmers and growers and the massive loss to wildlife, especially small native birds, with an extinction already occurring right in front of us even before these two years of drought, seems heartless.

Sure, but we are weather enthusiasts so any form of extreme weather is interesting.  Of course in winter most of us are hoping for another 1963, which will never happen again, but if it did would cause far more death and disruption than the current Summer

But 1976 or the Winter of 63 turned out to be freak anomalies, not part of any wider trend.  

That’s the difference. 2026 is basically 1976 but after 50 years of warming. 

Doesn’t mean every summer will be like this. At least not yet. Rather, I think we’ve beaten 1976 and other hot summers in recent years without particularly freakish Synoptics. Whereas this year we have the freakish Synoptics to thrash it. 

2026 is to the British summer trend what a super El Niño is to the global temperature trend. Each time we get extreme patterns in future summers, the records will go. 

Yep. I’m simultaneously very concerned about climate change, and very excited about extreme summer weather and breaking records. Two distinct parts of my brain. 

Bearing in mind we only need a mean CET of 16.3°C for the whole of August to create the hottest CET summer of all time (again), if at mid-point we are back up to 19, we'd only need 13.6 for the second half to take the trophy. 

Any degree days over that after the 16th (next Sunday) reduces that requirement day by day. So from that perspective, I'd be more than happy with the warmer nights and especially the garden-saving rain that some mT low pressure (or even returning mP) could bring. 

I suspect we will crack 2025 and there is a chance that we'll end on a low 17s August, giving us the first ever 18°C CET summer.

We also only need an anomaly of +0.5C for the rest of the year to get the hottest CET year ever.

Just a hunch but i think there might be a nice surprise come winter that might scupper that.

The last day or so has been rather damp here, but I would hardly regard it as being wet because although we have seen some wet surfaces at times, there has still been very little in the way of any actual recorded rainfall in this part of the world over the last day or so. I do agree that it's not as dry up here as it is down south, but it is still drier than average here and there continues to be various issues regarding water scarcity in the east of Scotland in particular.

As for being a year without a summer, that is not how I see it. I could see the point of that if this summer was actually cooler than average but in this era of climate change, colder than average seasons are something which just doesn't generally happen any more, regardless of which season we are referring to, or the time of year. This summer has actually been warmer than average. There hasn't been any official heatwaves here this year, but we have come close to getting one on at least a couple of occasions and there has been a number of days which has met the heatwave threshold, something which didn't happen at all in 2024 (as an example) and we are still seeing 20+°C maximums on a more regular basis than we would typically expect up here.

In addition to that, we even had a sunnier than average month in July (in my recent trip to Hawick, I even got to sit in my Mum's garden on most days) but since April, that has been our only sunnier than average month with May and June both being slightly duller than average. If there is anything which is letting this summer down here, it is probably an ongoing lack of sunshine as this month is also running duller than average here so far. As a result, we could probably do with seeing a bit more sunshine. The latest model output suggests that we might well get that in the coming days when the temperature briefly rises to around 25°C or so here in Edinburgh but whether or not that is enough to prevent this month (and possibly this summer as well) from being duller than average is a different matter.

I view a good thunderstorm as a credit, not a debit

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Breakout-thread 

The most recent ECM seasonal forecast shows autumn to be around 0.5c above normal, with the far south 1c above.  Rainfall around or a little above average.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/c3s_saison_cartes.php?ech=12&mode=16 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/c3s_saison_cartes.php?ech=12&mode=17 

GFS Op 0z - like FAX though the Normandy LP is part of a trough lying S-wards from the main LP which by by then is east of Iceland. The Azores high then extends a ridge towards Britain, aimed at England for the first part of the week beginning Sun16th and Scotland later. This ridge dominates on Thu 20th but weakens at other times: N-lies down the east coast on Tue 18th, shallow LP from France Sun 23rd but still in place off Cornwall to continue the drought Wed 26th, with light W-lies for Britain as a whole.

The ex-hurricane noted yesterday has been written out today though NHC is more confident about its development off Africa.

ECM  - like GFS though HP tends to keep to the south so N Scotland is affected by LP from Iceland Wed 19th.

AIFS - London, peak maximum 33C Thu 13th, back down to 24-25C by Sat 15th and staying there; one day's rain (9.6mm) on Mon 17th (believe it when you see it!). Edinburgh, peak is 26C Thu 13th, then also back down but to 16-18C; rain also Mon 17th and then rather more on Sun/Mon 23/24th.

GEFS - England, hottest (10C above norm in S, 8C in N) Fri 14th, mean back down to norm to Wed 26th though op run is in a small group of hot outliers around Fri 21st; small chances of rain offered by some runs after Mon 17th mainly in the N. 

Scotland, similar temp profile but peak is more like 6C above norm, decreasing northwards & a less marked and earlier (Wed 19th) op 'bounce'. Most ens members forecasting some rain on one day or another from Sat 15th, one or two with big totals later on.

A fresh westerly arrives on Friday with 21 C and then down to 19 C by Sunday & Monday.

Thereafter it's back to an Atlantic influence with Low pressure dominating with stronger winds, rain or showers and cooler

GFS Op - that Azores High forms a ridge to Scotland, while continental LP flirts with SE England on and off to Fri  21st when an extended Atlantic trough moves in , deepest at  995 mb Rockall Sat 22nd, joined by the remnants of an ex-hurricane and deepening 990mb N Ireland Mon 24th. The LP moves off into the N Sea and the Azores High is back Thu 27th.

ECM - keeps the ridge going to Wed 19th (albeit with a shallow LP near the SW rather than the SE) and then develops the idea of an Atlantic trough 1005mb Fri 21st Hebrides, not extending as far south as shown in GFS

AIFS - London, peak 33C Thu 13th, down to about 20C from Sat 15th through to Tue 25th with rain on many days after 15th, heavy on Sun 23rd. Edinburgh, peak 25C Thu 13th, down to 15C from Sun 16th and staying there, again frequent rain but heaviest Wed 19th

GEFS - peak temp Thu 13th (10C above norm for S England, 7C above in Scotland) then mean temp near norm Sat 15th to Wed 26th and quite good ens agreement, some rain likely from Mon 17th, least probable in south, fairly certain for north