The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
09 August 2026 15:41:19

I wouldn’t count until a station other than Charlwood records 32C. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Teddington and Heathrow have both recorded over 32C so that is 22 days. The previous record was 19 days in 1995. 1976 managed 16, but 15 of those were consecutive! The most we have had consecutively this year is seven.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
09 August 2026 15:58:30

Teddington and Heathrow have both recorded over 32C so that is 22 days. The previous record was 19 days in 1995. 1976 managed 16, but 15 of those were consecutive! The most we have had consecutively this year is seven.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Cheers Rob. 🙂🙂🙂🙂. Thanks for those stats I wondered where we were so to speak wrt to this. 🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Jiries
09 August 2026 16:14:31
Went up to 31.7C the max now 31.2C so a hot day here today.
Rob K
09 August 2026 16:17:02
Meanwhile GFS still suggesting that Thursday could be the second hottest day on record, with 39C (and Friday also possibly pushing June 26 out of the top 5). If that were to happen then 2026 would have 3 of the top 6 hottest days ever, and 4 of the top 10 (including ties).

Arpege only goes for 35C max though, quite a big difference at this stage.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
09 August 2026 16:46:11

Meanwhile GFS still suggesting that Thursday could be the second hottest day on record, with 39C (and Friday also possibly pushing June 26 out of the top 5). If that were to happen then 2026 would have 3 of the top 6 hottest days ever, and 4 of the top 10 (including ties).

Arpege only goes for 35C max though, quite a big difference at this stage.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

GFS as I have just seen a few minutes ago is lining up heatwave No7. I know No5 wasn't much, but it still delivered 30s and over which to me still counts. No7 looks like the 18th to the 21st or 22nd. 🙂🙂🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Jiries
09 August 2026 17:22:47

GFS as I have just seen a few minutes ago is lining up heatwave No7. I know No5 wasn't much, but it still delivered 30s and over which to me still counts. No7 looks like the 18th to the 21st or 22nd. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Some posters walked away because they not happy with the temperature only low 30's but for me any 30C plus I am very happy because this is UK not Med country.  Highlight of this summer is the posters how they walked away which I never seen this before, you expect frenzy of posts for temps 30C and over.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2026 17:47:51

Teddington and Heathrow have both recorded over 32C so that is 22 days. The previous record was 19 days in 1995. 1976 managed 16, but 15 of those were consecutive! The most we have had consecutively this year is seven.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Anyone got the stats for 25C days? That’s really the baseline, where the action is. The red circles on the old BBC charts. My hunch is that recent years have been trouncing the old records for number of what I think the European mets officially call “summer day” temperatures.  


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
johncs2016
09 August 2026 17:51:39
The Met Office are now going for two consecutive days (Wednesday and Thursday) with temperatures of around 25°C here in Edinburgh. This means that we would now just need one more to potentially give us that elusive first heatwave since 2022 in this part of the world. To me, that could easily happen if Tuesday's forecast is upgraded as well so even at this very late stage of the summer, I still wouldn't completely write off our chances of getting that heatwave just yet.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Chidog
09 August 2026 18:43:54

Anyone got the stats for 25C days? That’s really the baseline, where the action is. The red circles on the old BBC charts. My hunch is that recent years have been trouncing the old records for number of what I think the European mets officially call “summer day” temperatures.  

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Not sure of other years but this year so far has 55 of a possible 70 days exceeding 25C (1st June, and every single day from 16th June onwards apart from June 29th). 54 of the last 55 days have had a UK max over 25C!

Rob K
09 August 2026 19:11:56

Anyone got the stats for 25C days? That’s really the baseline, where the action is. The red circles on the old BBC charts. My hunch is that recent years have been trouncing the old records for number of what I think the European mets officially call “summer day” temperatures.  

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I have a spreadsheet with all the daily maxes for this year so it's a simple task to pull out the stats. For 2026 as a whole we have had 68 days over 25C. I haven't run the numbers for other years though, apart from 1976 which had 76 in the whole year.

Looks like today hit 33.1ºC at Teddington, which is also incidentally the 14th day to reach 33C this year.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
09 August 2026 20:16:42
Today is the 56th consecutive day with a CET max above 20°C. With more to come, interesting to see how the other big summers did.

2022 managed 51.

2018 managed 48.

Oft revered 1995 did well with 42 and 1983 had 30.

2025- the current hottest summer, not bad at 38. 2013 did well to get 33 as it was all wrapped up in July. 1911 managed 31.

1976 failed to get 30 and 2006 managed just 23. 2003's total is lower still.

With certainly at least 5 more to come, this is yet another record for this astonishing summer as far as I can tell.

Copied from another thread.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

scillydave
09 August 2026 20:19:29
Looks like the UKV is on the GFS camp for Thursday - it's shaping up to be a hot one. 38c or higher in certainly not out of the question and we may even see 3 days in a row at 35c and above.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

fairweather
09 August 2026 21:11:38

Anyone got the stats for 25C days? That’s really the baseline, where the action is. The red circles on the old BBC charts. My hunch is that recent years have been trouncing the old records for number of what I think the European mets officially call “summer day” temperatures.  

Originally Posted by: TimS 

In the last 54 consecutive days I've had 50 above 25C. Then jump back to May and there were a further 9. That's for my location in S.Essex.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
09 August 2026 21:24:22
It's quite difficult to not break a temperature record at the moment it seems. It will soon be easier to find one that hasn't been broken this summer!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
10 August 2026 01:35:51

I wouldn’t count until a station other than Charlwood records 32C. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

They should have just turned the place into the second runway!  I remember as a kid the campaigns to stop it from NIMBYS 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Rob K
10 August 2026 06:17:05
Models have eased off a degree or two on Thursday - but still 37 on UKV and 38 on GFS. The cooler air moves in faster on Friday too. Met Office maps going for 35 Wed and 36 Thur.

Looks like the 35 days of 30C is official - reported on Sky yesterday: https://news.sky.com/story/uk-record-for-number-of-days-above-30c-broken-as-new-heatwave-approaches-13571390


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
10 August 2026 07:16:51
Nice set of 00z ensembles so the mean now 19C with quite a lot go for 20C to highest 22.5c.  Then a drop and possible warm up again next week, it seem those dates next week kept coming up for another one but not that high as this week.

johncs2016
10 August 2026 07:49:23
Met Office now going for 26°C here in Edinburgh on Wednesday, 27°C for here on Thursday and 23°C for here on Friday. That is an upgrade on my last report on here and if we could just notch Friday's temperature up by a further couple of degrees, we would then have the possibility of an official heatwave here in Edinburgh.

The BBC forecast is similar as they are going for 25°C on Wednesday, 26°C on Thursday and 23°C on Friday.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Hungry Tiger
10 August 2026 12:07:54
Some good stats here. Source, with acknowledgements. 

CET DAYS OVER 20c

 

The number of times in a year the CET was 20c or over. Original TAW research . 

Heres the results.

1 – 1995, - 26 times

2 – 2026 , - 21 times (up to August 8th, this will rise this week)

3 – 1976, - 19

4 – 2006, - 18

5 – 2025, 2022, 2018, - 17

6 – 1997, - 14

7 – 2003, 1983, 1947, - 13

8 – 2023, 1911, 1826, - 12

9 – 2020, 1933, - 11

10 – 2001, - 10

11 – 2019, 1990, 1975, 1955, 1921, 1893, 1878, 1793, - 9

12 – 2021, 1911, 1808, - 8

2026 will claim this record too, and note how in the last 8 years, only 2024 didn’t make the cut.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Matty H
10 August 2026 12:10:58
The media making more of this one than the last. I wonder if we’ll see Amber or even red warnings for this one
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Bertwhistle
10 August 2026 12:21:21

The media making more of this one than the last. I wonder if we’ll see Amber or even red warnings for this one

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I think the (late) red warning last time (end of June) was not only the 39°C possibility but the hideous humidity with wbts at some point forecast as high as 30°C.

Thursday's peak heat (currently modelled as 37 over a swathe of SE to Central England (GFS Op, 6z)) comes with mid twenties WBTs and the dewpoints of around just 4°C, equating to about 13% RH.

That said, they didn't upgrade the warning till close to the record day, and an amber had been in place for the previous period. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

bledur
10 August 2026 13:40:20

Anyone got the stats for 25C days? That’s really the baseline, where the action is. The red circles on the old BBC charts. My hunch is that recent years have been trouncing the old records for number of what I think the European mets officially call “summer day” temperatures.  

Originally Posted by: TimS 

July and August 1983 were virtually continually over 25 c in the south.No extreme maxes but a long run of hot.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 August 2026 13:47:13

I think the (late) red warning last time (end of June) was not only the 39°C possibility but the hideous humidity with wbts at some point forecast as high as 30°C.

Thursday's peak heat (currently modelled as 37 over a swathe of SE to Central England (GFS Op, 6z)) comes with mid twenties WBTs and the dewpoints of around just 4°C, equating to about 13% RH.

That said, they didn't upgrade the warning till close to the record day, and an amber had been in place for the previous period. 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Indeed, I think it was the dangerous high humidity that was the main reason for the warning. Not being able to sweat and cool off that way can be a killer if you are unaware of the risk.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
10 August 2026 14:50:24
Been very clear and sunny today and now 29.2C while app show full overcast and 23C even they put 34c on Thursday which translate 37-38C here.   
fairweather
10 August 2026 14:51:20
Quite surprised to see max of 29.1C here today. Wass supposed to be about 25C and feel fresher after the "cold" front pushed through.
S.Essex, 42m ASL

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