The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
10 August 2026 06:17:05
Models have eased off a degree or two on Thursday - but still 37 on UKV and 38 on GFS. The cooler air moves in faster on Friday too. Met Office maps going for 35 Wed and 36 Thur.

Looks like the 35 days of 30C is official - reported on Sky yesterday: https://news.sky.com/story/uk-record-for-number-of-days-above-30c-broken-as-new-heatwave-approaches-13571390


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
10 August 2026 06:35:19

Up here - very much less than halfway up the country - the temps during the hot spells have been more severe, but the less-hot/more unsettled spells in between have been more pronounced than further south/southeast, so it's not been as 'unnatural' here. It's felt like a series of heatwaves punctuated by a week or two of 'normal' summer weather, whereas it seems in the s/se it's been more a case of one long heatwave that's waned a bit for a few days before rebuilding.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That's certainly how I would describe it. Last Thursday was the first day for weeks when I didn't feel hot and sticky at some point during the day, and now we have the heat rebuilding again.


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

Chidog
10 August 2026 07:16:19

That's certainly how I would describe it. Last Thursday was the first day for weeks when I didn't feel hot and sticky at some point during the day, and now we have the heat rebuilding again.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 

Heathrow had a mean of 20.0C in June and 22.7C in July. The 1991-2020 average mean for Lyon is 20.3C in June and 22.6C in July. So we've had a summer equivalent to two thirds of the way down France, and within touching distance of the French Riviera

Jiries
10 August 2026 07:16:51
Nice set of 00z ensembles so the mean now 19C with quite a lot go for 20C to highest 22.5c.  Then a drop and possible warm up again next week, it seem those dates next week kept coming up for another one but not that high as this week.

johncs2016
10 August 2026 07:49:23
Met Office now going for 26°C here in Edinburgh on Wednesday, 27°C for here on Thursday and 23°C for here on Friday. That is an upgrade on my last report on here and if we could just notch Friday's temperature up by a further couple of degrees, we would then have the possibility of an official heatwave here in Edinburgh.

The BBC forecast is similar as they are going for 25°C on Wednesday, 26°C on Thursday and 23°C on Friday.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Hungry Tiger
10 August 2026 12:07:54
Some good stats here. Source, with acknowledgements. 

CET DAYS OVER 20c

 

The number of times in a year the CET was 20c or over. Original TAW research . 

Heres the results.

1 – 1995, - 26 times

2 – 2026 , - 21 times (up to August 8th, this will rise this week)

3 – 1976, - 19

4 – 2006, - 18

5 – 2025, 2022, 2018, - 17

6 – 1997, - 14

7 – 2003, 1983, 1947, - 13

8 – 2023, 1911, 1826, - 12

9 – 2020, 1933, - 11

10 – 2001, - 10

11 – 2019, 1990, 1975, 1955, 1921, 1893, 1878, 1793, - 9

12 – 2021, 1911, 1808, - 8

2026 will claim this record too, and note how in the last 8 years, only 2024 didn’t make the cut.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Matty H
10 August 2026 12:10:58
The media making more of this one than the last. I wonder if we’ll see Amber or even red warnings for this one
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Bertwhistle
10 August 2026 12:21:21

The media making more of this one than the last. I wonder if we’ll see Amber or even red warnings for this one

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I think the (late) red warning last time (end of June) was not only the 39°C possibility but the hideous humidity with wbts at some point forecast as high as 30°C.

Thursday's peak heat (currently modelled as 37 over a swathe of SE to Central England (GFS Op, 6z)) comes with mid twenties WBTs and the dewpoints of around just 4°C, equating to about 13% RH.

That said, they didn't upgrade the warning till close to the record day, and an amber had been in place for the previous period. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

bledur
10 August 2026 13:40:20

Anyone got the stats for 25C days? That’s really the baseline, where the action is. The red circles on the old BBC charts. My hunch is that recent years have been trouncing the old records for number of what I think the European mets officially call “summer day” temperatures.  

Originally Posted by: TimS 

July and August 1983 were virtually continually over 25 c in the south.No extreme maxes but a long run of hot.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 August 2026 13:47:13

I think the (late) red warning last time (end of June) was not only the 39°C possibility but the hideous humidity with wbts at some point forecast as high as 30°C.

Thursday's peak heat (currently modelled as 37 over a swathe of SE to Central England (GFS Op, 6z)) comes with mid twenties WBTs and the dewpoints of around just 4°C, equating to about 13% RH.

That said, they didn't upgrade the warning till close to the record day, and an amber had been in place for the previous period. 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Indeed, I think it was the dangerous high humidity that was the main reason for the warning. Not being able to sweat and cool off that way can be a killer if you are unaware of the risk.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
10 August 2026 14:50:24
Been very clear and sunny today and now 29.2C while app show full overcast and 23C even they put 34c on Thursday which translate 37-38C here.   
fairweather
10 August 2026 14:51:20
Quite surprised to see max of 29.1C here today. Wass supposed to be about 25C and feel fresher after the "cold" front pushed through.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
10 August 2026 15:08:06
Amazing how 27 or 28c now just feels like an ordinary, pleasant summers day
Jason

Salfords, Surrey

Jiries
10 August 2026 15:44:37

Quite surprised to see max of 29.1C here today. Wass supposed to be about 25C and feel fresher after the "cold" front pushed through.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Might be the extreme dry ground factor that giving off more 4-5C higher than the 850's temps, today only 7.5c 850s that usually give 23 23-24C maxes but this time 29C and it was warm when walking to the lake and the grass so dead i can feel the heat feedback from the dead grass, not cool feeling when it very green.  Back in 2018 when 850's was often 11-13C the surface temps was 28-30C.  Going to be interesting on Thursday if this 19c uppers will give really 37-38C here which GFS been going for this.  Still 29.2C for long while now and wall to wall sunshine so far for the first time in ages not to see clouds.

redmoons
10 August 2026 16:36:22
Got to 27.6c here in Watford, I was expecting 23c
saxtemp
10 August 2026 16:41:41
GFS 12Z has the Wednesday heat even more widespread, a lot of 36c, and Thursday now has 39c north of the Humber 

A lovely cool 21c for Cornwall and Scilly.

UserPostedImage


Oxfordshire, 184m asl
Bertwhistle
10 August 2026 16:49:15

July and August 1983 were virtually continually over 25 c in the south.No extreme maxes but a long run of hot.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Not here. There were long spells but lots of circuit breakers. Massive downpours over the New Forest start of August. Also second half of July a cooler spell.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Retron
  • Retron
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 August 2026 17:23:40

Not here. There were long spells but lots of circuit breakers. Massive downpours over the New Forest start of August. Also second half of July a cooler spell.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Nor here either. The official Sheerness station (wish it was still running!) recorded 25 or higher on just 5 days in Jul/Aug 83. The mean max was 21.9 in July and just 20.9 in August - truly a different world. By comparison my mean max for July this year was 26.4, August is currently on 26.8 (not including today as per Cumulus). Right now it's 20.9 outside, and the yacht club by the seafront in Sheerness (not far from where the official station was) is 22.0. 

The difference is back then when it got hot we'd inevitably get a sea breeze. Still days under high pressure in summer were typical, and into the afternoon the breeze would kick in. This time around the heat dome is such that we've often had a southerly or SW'ly steering flow, and that's killed off any sea breeze. And then as the sea itself is now 21 or 22C (it's been flitting between the two for the last month and a half), winds from the sea aren't as cool as they used to be! 


Leysdown, north Kent
bledur
10 August 2026 18:28:39

Not here. There were long spells but lots of circuit breakers. Massive downpours over the New Forest start of August. Also second half of July a cooler spell.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

From Trevor Harley so although not as dry it was predominantly hot. although not as hot as now.

July. The hottest July of the century (19.5C), and indeed the hottest month since records began (until July 2006). Also mostly dry and sunny, but with some severe thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure extended from the Azores as the month started. The temperature reached the magic 32C somewhere in the country every day from the 12-16th, and the average daily maximum at Heathrow in the month was 27.6C. There were 17 consecutive days above 27C (80F) somewhere in the country between the 3rd and 19th, and 22 days above 27C in total; the temperature exceeded 21C somewhere in the country every day but one. There were 7 consecutive days over 30C from 11-17th July.  The highest temperature of the month was 33.7C at Liphook (Hants.) on the 16th (although this might be a high reading, with 33.0 at Hampton on the 15th and East Bergholt in Suffolk on the 16th being more reliable). A possible record high of 31.2C for Northern Ireland was set at Downpatrick (Co. Down) on the 14th; a more definite 30.8C was recorded at Shaw's Bridge, Co. Down (near Belfast; Belfast Airport saw 28.6C) on the 12th (the equal confirmed highest for the region, with 30 June 1976). The highest temperature recorded in the Isle of Man was set this month with 28.9C on the 12th. Cardiff recorded its highest ever temperature, of 33.1C, on the 13th. Even Coatbridge in Scotland reached 31.5C on the 12rh. It was also very humid. Some cool mist on North Sea coasts with NE winds; but the east coast improved later in the month as winds became more westerly. Thunderstorms on the 6th and 16-17th. Lightning deaths on the 6th; 95 mm of rain at Sevenoaks and 8 1mm at Croydon. More lightning deaths in the storms of the 16-17th. There was 68 mm of rain in 45 minutes at Cromer. Severe hailstorms. Flooding in the Pennines. A cold front moved south on the 18th, bringing more normal temperatures to the south for a few days before pressure built again. Penzance was flooded in the 22nd. 70mm of rain in one hour in Dumfries and Galloway led to flooding there. It was very warm again at the end, with 32C at Skegness and Liphook on the 29th. More widespread thunder on the 31st. The heatwave almost exactly coincided with the calendar month. This was my summer of love, and I remember being able to sit out in the sun in the parks of Dundee. Hence I make this the most interesting July for weather of the century.

August. Hot (17.3) and dry. There was a cool, showery start before it turned warm and sunny. 32C was reached Yeovilton on the 19th

tierradelfuego
10 August 2026 18:30:08

GFS 12Z has the Wednesday heat even more widespread, a lot of 36c, and Thursday now has 39c north of the Humber 

A lovely cool 21c for Cornwall and Scilly.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Got to say Coningsby or maybe a little north of that looks likely to be the hotspot again, will we, just maybe???


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

bledur
10 August 2026 18:32:32

Nor here either. The official Sheerness station (wish it was still running!) recorded 25 or higher on just 5 days in Jul/Aug 83. The mean max was 21.9 in July and just 20.9 in August - truly a different world. By comparison my mean max for July this year was 26.4, August is currently on 26.8 (not including today as per Cumulus). Right now it's 20.9 outside, and the yacht club by the seafront in Sheerness (not far from where the official station was) is 22.0. 

The difference is back then when it got hot we'd inevitably get a sea breeze. Still days under high pressure in summer were typical, and into the afternoon the breeze would kick in. This time around the heat dome is such that we've often had a southerly or SW'ly steering flow, and that's killed off any sea breeze. And then as the sea itself is now 21 or 22C (it's been flitting between the two for the last month and a half), winds from the sea aren't as cool as they used to be! 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

1983, Hottest July of the century, Mainly hot August as well. Not saying it was up to modern temps but it was a notable 2 months of summer .

saxtemp
10 August 2026 18:45:31

Got to say Coningsby or maybe a little north of that looks likely to be the hotspot again, will we, just maybe???

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

Had the exact samr thought, it's like the 2022 map again, just a degree cooler. For a moment I thought it might be the furthest north 39c ever achieved but apparently not.


Oxfordshire, 184m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
10 August 2026 20:13:32

1983, Hottest July of the century, Mainly hot August as well. Not saying it was up to modern temps but it was a notable 2 months of summer .

Originally Posted by: bledur 

What’s interesting is that the July 1983 CET is still very much up there with the top months. It’s alongside this year, 2006, August 1995, August 1997 and July 2018 in the top tier. 

The August value on the other hand is in the zone that’s almost (not quite) normal in modern summers. If this month ends up at 17.3 we’ll all be rather disappointed. 

Another thing that 1983 shows, and Aug 1997 even more so: the secret to a really high CET is warm nights.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
fairweather
10 August 2026 20:23:03

What’s interesting is that the July 1983 CET is still very much up there with the top months. It’s alongside this year, 2006, August 1995, August 1997 and July 2018 in the top tier. 

The August value on the other hand is in the zone that’s almost (not quite) normal in modern summers. If this month ends up at 17.3 we’ll all be rather disappointed. 

Another thing that 1983 shows, and Aug 1997 even more so: the secret to a really high CET is warm nights.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Yes thankfully we've been spared tropical nights in most of the heatwaves. In fact barely any here. e.g Today 29.2C max and down to 18C by 9.30pm.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
10 August 2026 20:45:31
Talking of humidity, I’m now in Mallorca where it maxed at 39C at Palma airport today. Just before we left the airport the heavens opened and although the rain had stopped by the time we emerged it was unbelievably humid. Now almost 11pm and still 30C on the south coast. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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