Might be the extreme dry ground factor that giving off more 4-5C higher than the 850's temps, today only 7.5c 850s that usually give 23 23-24C maxes but this time 29C and it was warm when walking to the lake and the grass so dead i can feel the heat feedback from the dead grass, not cool feeling when it very green.  Back in 2018 when 850's was often 11-13C the surface temps was 28-30C.  Going to be interesting on Thursday if this 19c uppers will give really 37-38C here which GFS been going for this.  Still 29.2C for long while now and wall to wall sunshine so far for the first time in ages not to see clouds.

Not here. There were long spells but lots of circuit breakers. Massive downpours over the New Forest start of August. Also second half of July a cooler spell.

Nor here either. The official Sheerness station (wish it was still running!) recorded 25 or higher on just 5 days in Jul/Aug 83. The mean max was 21.9 in July and just 20.9 in August - truly a different world. By comparison my mean max for July this year was 26.4, August is currently on 26.8 (not including today as per Cumulus). Right now it's 20.9 outside, and the yacht club by the seafront in Sheerness (not far from where the official station was) is 22.0. 

The difference is back then when it got hot we'd inevitably get a sea breeze. Still days under high pressure in summer were typical, and into the afternoon the breeze would kick in. This time around the heat dome is such that we've often had a southerly or SW'ly steering flow, and that's killed off any sea breeze. And then as the sea itself is now 21 or 22C (it's been flitting between the two for the last month and a half), winds from the sea aren't as cool as they used to be! 

From Trevor Harley so although not as dry it was predominantly hot. although not as hot as now.

July. The hottest July of the century (19.5C), and indeed the hottest month since records began (until July 2006). Also mostly dry and sunny, but with some severe thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure extended from the Azores as the month started. The temperature reached the magic 32C somewhere in the country every day from the 12-16th, and the average daily maximum at Heathrow in the month was 27.6C. There were 17 consecutive days above 27C (80F) somewhere in the country between the 3rd and 19th, and 22 days above 27C in total; the temperature exceeded 21C somewhere in the country every day but one. There were 7 consecutive days over 30C from 11-17th July.  The highest temperature of the month was 33.7C at Liphook (Hants.) on the 16th (although this might be a high reading, with 33.0 at Hampton on the 15th and East Bergholt in Suffolk on the 16th being more reliable). A possible record high of 31.2C for Northern Ireland was set at Downpatrick (Co. Down) on the 14th; a more definite 30.8C was recorded at Shaw's Bridge, Co. Down (near Belfast; Belfast Airport saw 28.6C) on the 12th (the equal confirmed highest for the region, with 30 June 1976). The highest temperature recorded in the Isle of Man was set this month with 28.9C on the 12th. Cardiff recorded its highest ever temperature, of 33.1C, on the 13th. Even Coatbridge in Scotland reached 31.5C on the 12rh. It was also very humid. Some cool mist on North Sea coasts with NE winds; but the east coast improved later in the month as winds became more westerly. Thunderstorms on the 6th and 16-17th. Lightning deaths on the 6th; 95 mm of rain at Sevenoaks and 8 1mm at Croydon. More lightning deaths in the storms of the 16-17th. There was 68 mm of rain in 45 minutes at Cromer. Severe hailstorms. Flooding in the Pennines. A cold front moved south on the 18th, bringing more normal temperatures to the south for a few days before pressure built again. Penzance was flooded in the 22nd. 70mm of rain in one hour in Dumfries and Galloway led to flooding there. It was very warm again at the end, with 32C at Skegness and Liphook on the 29th. More widespread thunder on the 31st. The heatwave almost exactly coincided with the calendar month. This was my summer of love, and I remember being able to sit out in the sun in the parks of Dundee. Hence I make this the most interesting July for weather of the century.

August. Hot (17.3) and dry. There was a cool, showery start before it turned warm and sunny. 32C was reached Yeovilton on the 19th

1983, Hottest July of the century, Mainly hot August as well. Not saying it was up to modern temps but it was a notable 2 months of summer .

What’s interesting is that the July 1983 CET is still very much up there with the top months. It’s alongside this year, 2006, August 1995, August 1997 and July 2018 in the top tier. 

The August value on the other hand is in the zone that’s almost (not quite) normal in modern summers. If this month ends up at 17.3 we’ll all be rather disappointed. 

Another thing that 1983 shows, and Aug 1997 even more so: the secret to a really high CET is warm nights.

Yes thankfully we've been spared tropical nights in most of the heatwaves. In fact barely any here. e.g Today 29.2C max and down to 18C by 9.30pm.

Been awful all summer. I can accept the raw data part being rubbish, because that’s what it is, based on a solitary run at any time, but the text forecasts have been shocking at times as well

It generally hasn't been too bad but today was a shocker.. aome 8C higher than forcast 🤣

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/800/cpsprodpb/3ab5/live/5812bf70-94d3-11f1-8a9a-13c674e4e5fe.png.webp 

Amber heat health alerts for almost all of England as next heatwave begins

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/ce8ljn1ngg2o 

MetOffice now has a 36C at Heathrow as t continues with the ninja updates.

GFS has been over doing temps a little bit recently, but Arpege has been under doing them by a little as well and shows 37c.

UKV has 38C for Thursday as well on 03z

GFS had been very correct with this heatwave and will be the last one to deliver very high temperatures, can't see any more 35C for the rest of the time, not sure about Sept.   We should be saviour the 38-39c and if can beat the 38.5c recorded on 10th August 2003 as well.   

This means that unless today suddenly ends up being substantially hotter than what it was forecast to be which is very highly unlikely, there is unlikely to be an official heatwave here in Edinburgh after all as there are only two days in that immediate outlook which satisfy the heatwave threshold for here, rather than the three days which are required for that.

A few 39s on the 6z op GFS:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_84_uk2mtmpsohd.png 

No backing down on this and it now fixed and no change of plans or cancellations.   Very excited to see those temperatures to see how hot we can get with extremely dry ground now.  The 850s here at 19C would give us 38C or possible 39C which could be 19 to 20C range from the 850s first time ever.   Used to be 15-16c at best and in 2018 was 17-18C to now 19.20C range.   The ground is extremely drier than 2018 due to the timing of the dryness starting from mid June to now compare to 2018 which started in May to end of July.

Met office have issued a Amber Heat warning for Thursday for much of the Midlands  (anywhere between M4 and Manch

ester really) suggesting 38C could be reached. Met Office - Amber Warning